Posted on 10/27/2011 11:05:28 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
Numerous preemptive obituaries are being written for Governor Rick Perry’s campaign. These efforts are premature because they fail to understand and appreciate the fickle winds of political fortune.
Governor Perry has substantial political assets that make him a potent candidate and that will give him another chance to prove himself to Republican voters.
Each candidate brings their own set of positives and negatives to the game:
Mitt Romney has money to burn, establishment support, business experience, and passable debating skills. He also has a record far to the left of the majority of Republicans, a history of changing his position on major issues, and gives the impression that he will let you down when your back is turned.
Herman Cain has business experience, a high likability factor, and a fresh approach to conventional problems. He also has a propensity for confusing statements, no history of political success, and seems less vested in his own campaign than are his supporters.
Newt Gingrich has laser-like intelligence, a thorough understanding of policy choices, and excellent debating skills. He also has two ex-wives, a tendency to talk too much, and a manner that strikes many independents and women as smug or arrogant.
Rick Perry is not an able debater. In fact he seems to be bored with the entire exercise and I don’t blame him for that. The process that currently passes for “debate” is a valueless mixture of antagonistic press conference and TV quiz show. Rick Perry is not a policy wonk. Neither was Ronald Reagan. Neither was Dwight Eisenhower. Neither was George Washington.
What Governor Perry does have is:
A demonstrated ability to win elections.
A demonstrated understanding of how to lead and govern.
A Reaganesque capacity to touch the “mystic chords of memory” that bind us together.
A large stockpile of cash.
A set of opponents who all have significant electoral problems of their own.
While being ahead is intuitively always better than being behind, the clear political fact is that polls in October-November-December, don’t win elections in January and February. An Iowa State University poll published on November 18, 2003 showed Howard Dean at 29%, Dick Gephardt at 21%, John Kerry at 15%, and John Edwards at 8%. A Pew Research poll published on December 2, 2003 showed Dean at 26%, Gephardt at 22%, Kerry at 9%, and Edwards at 5%. (H/T nationalpolls.com)
The Democrat’s experience in 2004 is I think highly relevant as it was largely the mirror image of 2012. Eight years ago Democrats loathed George W. Bush just as conservatives today can’t stomach Barack Obama. Like Obama now, Bush was widely seen as vulnerable and thus there was a wide open scrum for the Democrat nomination.
For all his money Mitt Romney has been unable to close the deal with Republican voters. For all his current polling success, Herman Cain still appears to be a long shot to stay the distance. For all of his smarts and ability Newt Gingrich retains major downside risks.
The flaws of his opponents, together with his own considerable skill and potential, leaves an opening the size of Texas for Governor Rick Perry.
Thanks for you kind reply.
How can you not think well of someone with that kind of support for our heroes?!
No...instead a bunch of good folks, and I hope generally well-meaning folks, get their feelings hurt over direct talk. Even if the direct talk is misplaced or poorly worded, real people should be able to see past that to the man.
But then again...sometimes I wonder what happened to the world I thought we lived in.
These days, FreeRepublic has a lot of the same characteristics of the libs: Alinsky tactics, demonization, hyperbole and “nuclear” tactics.
Whatever happened to civil discourse and looking for the real, true answer to our problems?
Hey, if Perry can’t play and Cain is the guy, I’ll support him.
But right now, I’m not sold.
Again, thanks for the reply.
“Ricky Peron is a POS. America is turning into Norte Mexicana.............”
“Really? How is he doing that?”
Hahahaha. I can’t stand it anymore.
I heard that Marcus was very opposed to Perry running until he had to go and bury a bunch of his friends. When he came back he told Perry he had changed his mind, he was needed and Marcus would stand behind him. I belive that was when all those SEALS were killed recently.
Nov 4, 2010: CNN - Spitzer and Parker drill Perry on Social Security [runs to over 6 minutes though the slide dial says differently -- Spitzer gets a little pushy toward the end and Perry tells him, "I don't corner very well]
Oct 15, 2011: Rick Perry Unleashed on Video Tex. Governor Rick Perry stopped by the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review offices for an in-depth interview. The Trib put the interview on video. And here's the really cool thing about what the newspaper did: They let Perry explain the Perry energy jobs proposal at length, without interruptions with silly questions from the liberal media talking points memo (you know, the Lame Liberal 3 Questions to Trip Perry Up). But don't read the article. Apparently, somewhere outside the contents of these videos, the Tribune-Review asked those silly questions and wrote it down there. So, just watch these videos of Texas Gov. Rick Perry unleashed on his Energizing American Jobs and Security plan, and how his record is proof that he can execute that plan:”…..
Here's an idea. Get behind your guy or gal and start posting the good stuff he or she does.
I, and many others, appreciate CW's posts.
So, what is your solution? What do you propose?
I’ll vote for him if he manages to snag the nomination from Herman, but I won’t work for him nor send money. Herman is my man.
Maybe I can help explain how things work for you. If you don't click on the blue words on the main page that have Perry in the headline, you won't have to read a single solitary thing about Perry. It's real simple, you'll catch on to it in no time.
Cain doesn’t like the debate formats either.
Perhaps you’ve not had the opportunity to listen to him uninterrupted — at length. He’ll be on Fox News Sunday for the first half hour. I wonder what “snotty” comment Chris Wallace will throw out to keep his liberal credentials shined up. But it should be good TV.
Yep. Have you read the story about the “black bean” vote Perry took with his family, Mr. Luttrell included?
Marcus was very hesitant...not wanting the Perry family to go through the gauntlet that he knew the campaign would present.
[You know the cast iron BITCH about that? Conservatives here on FreeRepublic are part of that!]
Thanks for your post. I don’t know exactly why, but I got a little emotional reading it.
Those SEAL guys are beyond amazing. And to have one want to protect Governor Perry from something he saw as tough is pretty telling.
re: Wallace
I think Chris Matthews needs you to fill in the next time he's gone. LOL
You're entering Baghdad Bob territory.
Perry can’t recover as long as the media, and that includes Faux News is in the tank for Romney. It will make no difference what he does in the remainng debates, what he says, or how he says it. Romney could stand there and not say a word and after the debate Faux News and CNN and the rest of the media, will say Perry lost, Romney won. So the debates are going to change nothing. If Perry is to get any traction people will have to quit relying on the media to pick who won these so-called debates. Perry needs to go state by state and get his message out. Face to face contact with the people. He’s got the money to do it. When you read assinine poll data every day saying Romney is winning in each and every state, you should pay no attention to that poll. I will jump in hell with my britches soaked in gasoline if Romney wins the SC primary. But to listen to the Romney-loving media he currently leads in that particular deep-south state. I was raised in the Carolinas, have family that lives all over South Carolina and they laugh at Perry and his liberal ways. Either Perry or Cain, with Gingrich being the longshot will win the SC primary. PAY NO ATTETION TO THESE MEDIA DRIVEN POLLS! They try to tell you who is winning. All Cain needed to do was win the Florida poll and he appeared on every talk show in existance for the next week and it’s not slowed down. Michele Bachmann won Iowa and got about 15 minutes of exposure. Ron Pauls wins Straw Polls every other day and Herman Cain is the story for finishing second. And of course Romney finishing in dead last place means nothing to the media and they won’t report it. Let Perry finish last and it’s the talk of the land on national TV for a week or two. Has Romney, who has been running for president for 6 years, ever won a straw poll of any type? I rest my case.
The stupid thing the Gipper said in his debate was "I'm all confused now"
Fortunately the voting public understood that good leaders are not necessarily going to be perfect at all times in debates.
Hey, listen up! Perry is the only one who WILL SEAL THE BORDER. The only one. And he will drive off and kill the Cartels.
What would you expect someone running for President to say?
“Oh hell yeah! Put one of those on my pickum up truck” “We should never freed them blacks anyhow”
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