Santorum and the Evangelical Civil War in Iowa

Evangelicals are in a civil war in Iowa. If they could unite behind a candidate, they could defeat Mitt Romney and Ron Paul in the Iowa caucuses, but they can’t. Part of the problem is that three candidates are running for evangelical support but Iowa simply isn’t big enough for the three of them. They’re splitting the vote. Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Santorum are all making a play for the social conservatives they need to propel them onward. In 2008, sixty percent of the participants in the Iowa caucuses were evangelical.

Eight days ago Rick Santorum won the personal endorsements of two evangelical leaders—Bob Vander Plaats, CEO of the Family Leader, and Chuck Hurley, President of the Iowa Family Policy Center. The endorsements may have been just enough to push Santorum up in the polls—at Bachmann’s expense. Vander Plaats asked Bachmann to drop out and endorse one of the social conservatives.

The Bachmann team is simply imploding with the defection of a top aide to the Ron Paul camp. She herself has said that it would take nothing less than a “miracle” to win. When you have to keep insisting that you aren’t dropping out—it may be time to drop out. Look to Bachmann to exit stage left after Iowa. The question becomes who will she endorse.

Three new polls—today’s NBC/Marist poll, yesterday’s Rasmussen poll, CNN/Time/ORIC poll—show Santorum moving into third place. This is good new for Santorum. Conservative Republican candidates tend to out-perform in Iowa while moderate Republican candidates tend to under-perform. If this holds, Santorum is effectively in a three-way tie with Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. He is the only one of the candidates to visit all ninety-nine of Iowa counties.

Unlike Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansa,s to whom he is frequently compared, Santorum is a northeasterner, a Pennsylvanian. His appeal may be limited beyond working-class Catholics and Midwestern evangelicals. He’s at 2.7% in South Carolina. Moreover, even if Santorum were to win Iowa—a big if—he has essentially no money and no organization in any other state.

Expect to see Rick Perry start a media blitz against Rick Santorum, which, indeed, he has already begun, releasing a radio ad. If Bachmann drops out, Santorum is all that stands between Perry and winning evangelical voters. Rick Santorum spent sixteen years in office, after all, and that leaves a paper trail.

Despite his social conservative bona fides, Santorum was anything but a fiscal conservative, as Erick Erickson points out over at Red State.

* He supported steel tariffs in Pennsylvania….
* He supported No Child Left Behind.
* He supported the prescription drug benefit.
* He supported the Bridge to Nowhere. In fact, according to Club for Growth, “Santorum had the audacity to vote to continue funding the Bridge to Nowhere rather than send the money to rebuild New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina.”

Those kind of attack ads write themselves, and you can be sure that Barack Obama will rest at nothing to mention Santorum’s support for the Bridge to Nowhere over the blacks who suffered in Katrina.

Santorum stands ready to defend those earmarks, but calls his voting in favor of a new drug entitlement a “mistake.” Santorum was crushed in his re-election bid by eighteen points in 2006.

I think these stories that “evangelicals” (what exactly does that mean anyway) all behave a certain way; are just a media created stories.
I would think most “evangelicals”; would want a candidate just like any other conservative wants. That is; give us a smaller less intrusive government but keep a strong defense.

If they truly thought Newt for example would get that done; then they would overlook his flaws for the greater good he could bring. Saving the country is the most important goal.

I don't see people voting for a Santorum or Bachmann just to make statement

Thanks for posting those articles because Romney, and Ron Paul, are the real enemies, as far as the primaries go.

Also, if Romney ever got the nomination (which I don’t think will happen, but it could), it will risk a 3rd party which is why I started this thread:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2795881/posts

Just a guess, but I don’t think Ron Paul would run 3rd party, because he probably wouldn’t want to hurt Rand Paul. However, someone else might, like Donald Trump.

Happy New Year!

I don’t think Ron Paul would have ONE second’s doubt about doing a third party run — he doesn’t see himself as a party man (nor does his son Rand). To them, parties are the necessary path they need to position themselves. In my opinion, Donald Trump is an ad man for the Trump brand and will NEVER run for elective office.

Happy New Year!

Thanks Cincinatus' Wife.

Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Santorum are all making a play for the social conservatives... Eight days ago Rick Santorum won the personal endorsements of two evangelical leaders -- Bob Vander Plaats, CEO of the Family Leader, and Chuck Hurley, President of the Iowa Family Policy Center. The endorsements may have been just enough to push Santorum up in the polls -- at Bachmann's expense. Vander Plaats asked Bachmann to drop out and endorse one of the social conservatives.

She's now angling for the VP nomination.

Good idea. While they're at it, all but two of the candidates should drop out, because the Republican vote just can't be split in tiny Iowa. WTH, more than *one* Republican candidate is redundant.

The Bachmann team is simply imploding with the defection of a top aide to the Ron Paul camp... Three new polls -- today's NBC/Marist poll, yesterday's Rasmussen poll, CNN/Time/ORIC poll -- show Santorum... in a three-way tie with Mitt Romney and Ron Paul.

Ron Paul's supposed polling numbers are agitprop -- he's the candidate favored by the partisan media shills -- iow, leftists who masquerade as journalists -- because they know he's not viable as a candidate, and want to push his viability as a way of tarring the entire Republican field, the entire Republican Party, ad self-identifying Republicans in general.

Despite his social conservative bona fides, Santorum was anything but a fiscal conservative, as Erick Erickson points out over at Red State.

Erick Erickson is shilling for Perry:

Perry Campaign's Amateur Hour (Perry campaign coordinating with Redstate to trash Santorum)

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