Posted on 12/30/2011 1:36:24 PM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
Evangelicals are in a civil war in Iowa. If they could unite behind a candidate, they could defeat Mitt Romney and Ron Paul in the Iowa caucuses, but they can’t. Part of the problem is that three candidates are running for evangelical support but Iowa simply isn’t big enough for the three of them. They’re splitting the vote. Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Santorum are all making a play for the social conservatives they need to propel them onward. In 2008, sixty percent of the participants in the Iowa caucuses were evangelical.
Eight days ago Rick Santorum won the personal endorsements of two evangelical leaders—Bob Vander Plaats, CEO of the Family Leader, and Chuck Hurley, President of the Iowa Family Policy Center. The endorsements may have been just enough to push Santorum up in the polls—at Bachmann’s expense. Vander Plaats asked Bachmann to drop out and endorse one of the social conservatives.
The Bachmann team is simply imploding with the defection of a top aide to the Ron Paul camp. She herself has said that it would take nothing less than a “miracle” to win. When you have to keep insisting that you aren’t dropping out—it may be time to drop out. Look to Bachmann to exit stage left after Iowa. The question becomes who will she endorse.
Three new polls—today’s NBC/Marist poll, yesterday’s Rasmussen poll, CNN/Time/ORIC poll—show Santorum moving into third place. This is good new for Santorum. Conservative Republican candidates tend to out-perform in Iowa while moderate Republican candidates tend to under-perform. If this holds, Santorum is effectively in a three-way tie with Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. He is the only one of the candidates to visit all ninety-nine of Iowa counties.
Unlike Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansa,s to whom he is frequently compared, Santorum is a northeasterner, a Pennsylvanian. His appeal may be limited beyond working-class Catholics and Midwestern evangelicals. He’s at 2.7% in South Carolina. Moreover, even if Santorum were to win Iowa—a big if—he has essentially no money and no organization in any other state.
Expect to see Rick Perry start a media blitz against Rick Santorum, which, indeed, he has already begun, releasing a radio ad. If Bachmann drops out, Santorum is all that stands between Perry and winning evangelical voters. Rick Santorum spent sixteen years in office, after all, and that leaves a paper trail.
Despite his social conservative bona fides, Santorum was anything but a fiscal conservative, as Erick Erickson points out over at Red State.
* He supported steel tariffs in Pennsylvania….
* He supported No Child Left Behind.
* He supported the prescription drug benefit.
* He supported the Bridge to Nowhere. In fact, according to Club for Growth, “Santorum had the audacity to vote to continue funding the Bridge to Nowhere rather than send the money to rebuild New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina.”
Those kind of attack ads write themselves, and you can be sure that Barack Obama will rest at nothing to mention Santorum’s support for the Bridge to Nowhere over the blacks who suffered in Katrina.
Santorum stands ready to defend those earmarks, but calls his voting in favor of a new drug entitlement a “mistake.” Santorum was crushed in his re-election bid by eighteen points in 2006.
Bachmann has done no ads, that I have seen. Of course, I don’t live in Iowa. Too bad she didn’t have more money. Governors get the cash.
People in other States that do not understand the way Texas works. Always judge based on personal experience.
Houston expects a 14% jump in employment in 2012. Can Obama claim that for the U.S.?
I guess you have to live here to experience it.
No he doesn’t. Television speaks in spoon fed sound bites for the bubba’s.
frankly, I’m do not care about Iowa anymore. I came upon several articles that had varying details of Karen Santorum having a medically induced miscarriage (aka: Abortion).
I mean com’ on, Evangelicals, smangelicals. Hypocrites (IOWA) one and all.
Why did you bring that up about Karen Santorum?
Because I am sick of hypocrites. Why is it that NOT one of the so called Pro-Life groups in Iowa have not even mentioned this. Yet Perry goes to from rape incest exception to none, and he is criticized.
Perry is the ONLY candidate that is a true conservative and has the record to prove it.
Have been keeping my powder dry since Cain's implosion.
If Santorum can finish ahead of Bachmann and Perry in Iowa, he will have my instant financial support.
Once Thompson left the race, I had no candidate in ‘08.
They lost a baby shortly after birth. “Varying details” are a tell-tale sign that the entire story may be fabricated. Bob
I’m from Scranton, Pa, and I am a conservative Christian who has never been impressed with Huckabee. He was a pretty liberal governor in a conservative state, raising taxes many times, and exploding the budget, as best I remember it. Bob
But apparently voters have no problem voting for people that are hypocrites?
Your probably right. I’m just feeling a little sensitive to life issues today.
Sorry if I offended anyone.
Your probably right. I’m just feeling a little sensitive to life issues today.
Sorry if I offended anyone.
Have you ever done an anti-Romney thread?
“Why all the negative campaigning against fellow conservatives?”
Yup, and meanwhile Romney gets a pass:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2826780/posts
YES.
And Perry has made anti Perry ads too!
I would have posted more articles, but other FReepers beat me to them.
Romney tells conservative voters that “poisonous language” doesn’t advance their cause
Debate Bet an Example of Romney Showing Strain
Iowans Miffed at a Noncommittal Mitt Romney (and that's putting it mildly)
Rick Perry Campaign: "Romney's Remedy" Ad
Romney tries to prove he can win without actually being wanted (waging war of attrition)
Perry campaign rips Romney as a `progressive’
Romney’s Troubling Appointments (Mitt's environmental policy team now works for Obama)
Romney's stumbling path - Can he really manage to kick it away?
Romney is proficient but unloved
Perry ad goes to town on 'Romneycare' (Romney camp cries 'distortion')
Mitt Romney hit for past emissions stance [Inconvenient Truth on Climate Change]
Mitt Romney no longer the Teflon candidate
Manufactured Mitt: Carefully Choreographed, Rare Iowa Appearances Attempt to Hide Positions
Mitt flier: Perry 'wants to kill Social Security' (being distributed in Florida)
Rick Perry and Mitt Romney showcase a Republican divide
Chris Wallace says Mitt Romney MIA from Sunday shows
Conservatives slam Mitt Romney for going weak-kneed in war on public employees
Here's The Old Bain Capital Photo Everyone Will Use To Attack Mitt Romney
Rick Perry: Mitt Romney = Obama Lite
Carbon Copies [60 second video campaign ad]
Mitt: That's -- I'm running for office, for Pete's sake, I can't have illegals. [video clip]
Look to Bachmann to exit stage left after Iowa. The question becomes who will she endorse.
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She will endorse the only GOP candidate she has not attacked in this race; Mitt Romney. And that’s because, as Ed Rollins said, she thinks he’s going to be the eventual nominee and she wants to be his VP.
Expect to see Rick Perry start a media blitz against Rick Santorum, which, indeed, he has already begun,...
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ROFLMAO.... You have to laugh to keep from crying. The GOP is determined to pull defeat from the jaws of victory. We’re going to so beat, bloody and break every candidate we have until the eventual nominees crawls into the General Election wounded beyond recovery. Start practicing now saying “President Obama” for the next four years folks. WE HAVE MET THE ENEMY AND HE IS US.
You’re right about it being “us.” But because so many people work from the starting point of fear and make bad choices.
Perry has a joy and a determination that would do FReepers a lot of good to emulate, instead of huddling in fear of “Obama.”
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