Iowa Caucuses Only Relevant For Their Near-Total Irrelevance

Reaganite Republican ^ | January 4, 2012 | Reaganite Republican

[Reaganite Republican]

Keeping-in-mind the state's pitiful track record at picking eventual Republican presidential nominees, here's considering the Iowa Caucus results and what they mean (if anything):

Santorum and Romney are locked in a dead-heat late into the night, nearing 25% of the vote each.  Romney appears to be pulling into the lead with a late surge, though. 

Ron Paul is third and Newt a battle-weary fourth, the take-away for Team Doughboy being "attack ads work", shame that it is. 

The rest are left licking wounds and re-assessing hopes in the wake of disappointing finishes, particularly Michelle Bachmann (who actually won the Iowa Staw Poll five months ago) and 
snotty liberal-Republican John Huntsman with 742 votes (lol)

How many people voted in this one small state deep in the heart of Korn Kountry?

Results are still coming in this year, but last time in 2008 a grand total of 119,188 people -only 4% of the population of sparsely-populated Iowa-
took part in the caucus process that selected Mike Huckabee (Super Bowl XLV attendance was 103,000+)

Alas, the caucuses are not even representative of the state's Republicans as a whole: later that same year (2008), John McCain received 677,000 presidential votes in the Iowa... 
5x the total number of caucus-goers. And paltry sums seen in the (above) chart appear almost identical to 2008's Iowa turnout.

That means this Iowa vote that a ludicrous amount of importance is being slathered upon -with some deeming certain campaigns rendered "confident", "surging", or even "demoralized" by this minor event- represents the voice of just 4/100ths of one percent of the United States population, a mere gaggle that couldn't even half-fill the Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

And the delegate count?

Even if Mittens pulls it off in Iowa and goes on to take New Hampshire (where he owns a home/enjoys a large lead), that would find him with  just 12 delegates of the 1144 he needs for the GOP nomination... big whoop-dee-doo.

What's the landscape look like after that?

Newt Gingrich leads the RCP poll-of-polls nationally by 2.4%, continuing a rebound that began last week, and reversing a trend that Romney and pro-Romney PAC-men had instigated with their withering $3M attack-ad offensive. That unprincipled and largely dishonest effort was enough to have Mitt up 1.8% for a few days nationally, but the game's not going to work quite the same in the American south and southwest that dominates the primary schedule from NH-on. Newt's taking the gloves off... and southerners never much cottoned to Mittens in the first place.

Team Romney may soon come to regret how early they chose to go nuclear on Gingrich… he’ll come out both barrels blazing now, and woe be unto the unholy target. Romney should be easy to shred this way in the south, he’s not their kind of guy and all Newt has to do is remind them just why that is. Polling suggests a possible Gingrich sweep of the south, with Newt up 16% in South Carolina and 7% in Florida. Nabbing that delegate jackpot would put the former Speaker instantly out-front, with the remaining primary schedule (south/west) overall friendly to Gingrich imho.

If you're expecting the 'Santorum Surge' to amount to anything from this point on, you're due for some disappointment: He doesn’t have the money or infrastructure to keep up with Romney in New Hampshire, and he hasn’t even been in South Carolina since early November. As I said yesterday, a vote for Santorum is a vote for Romney, in-effect.

Although fundraising should improve overnight and he'll be getting a lot more press now, Santorum will have to dramatically expand his campaign organization as fast as humanly possible. He may even be wise to abandon NH to concentrate on more-friendly environs of SC and Florida. 

Trouble for him is, that's Gingrich Country... Video/toons/more at Reaganite Republican

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[bigbob]

An Iowa buddy calls their caucus the “Cross Your Heart Bra of politics” because it “lifts and separates” - lifting a candidate like Santorum from the bottom tier to co-winner and the eminent departure of Ms. Bachmann sure seems to prove that he’s got a point.

[VanDeKoik]

It is an insult to states with more relevance in nominating how people give Iowa and NH this magical power over the whole process.

And candidates have to pay them lip-service or else they get flogged.

[Cringing Negativism Network]

LOL

Seem to have been pretty meaningful for Rick Santorum's momentum.

Just saying.

[Reaganite Republican]

In a way I wish Ron Paul had won, that might have motivated the party to rid us of Iowa’s unhelpful, over-representative influence once and for-all.

[bigbob]

Hey now, don’t be bad-mouthing Iowa ;-)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WyeY0hWU28I

[Sherman Logan]

Absolutely agree.

Order of primaries should be chosen by random 4 years in advance.

IA and NH, while lovely states, should not have such permanent influence on the electoral process.

[Reaganite Republican]

See where it takes him- nowhere, just a short-lived buzz, that’s all

[GonzoGOP]

Iowa is important not because of who wins, but who lost. Going into Iowa there were 8 candidates. Cain dropped out before the vote. Perry and Bachman are likely to go out today. In addition of the remaining candidates Huntsman is now a joke and will get even less then his current 1% if he stays in at all.

So we are down to four leading into the primaries next week. This is critical as Romney can't break 25%. So he can only win in a race split at least five ways. One on one with anybody accept Ron Paul he is toast.

[Cringing Negativism Network]

GO RICK!

Stop the squabbling people, and let’s all un-elect Obama.

:D

[pulaskibush]

A few days ago, Gingrich was to own Iowa, followed by Romney. The rest really didn't matter. Here are the numbers from a Reuters story on Dec 12th of those likely to vote in the Iowa caucuses: Gingrich 29.8% Mitt Romney, 20.3%, Ron Paul 10.7%. U.S. Rep. Michele Bachman 8.5%, Rick Perry 8.2%. Since he didn't buy enough ads or hire enough ex/future media people from PR firms, and is a conservative that can win with conservative volunteers, Rick Santorum wasn't worth mentioning. Pat Caddell said that Santorum was in single digits a week before 01/03/12! Keep that in mind as you see the election results:

Santorum & Romney 25%, Paul 21%, Gingrich 13% Perry 10% Bachmann 5% Huntsman 1%.

The pollsters are rigging this election to whoever they think will buy the most ads/can be beat by Obama, Romney and Gingrich. The massive 40% undecided vote wasn't even mentioned until Sunday and has yet to be mentioned for New Hampshire, S. Carolina, Super Tuesday States, or any other state. Is there is a reason to trust a pundit claiming a candidate is "finished" after this "surprise"? Are we to trust these pundits who claim that Gingrich will sweep the South or that Santorum's rise was only one time?

[Free Vulcan]

That’s right. Iowa isn’t the decider, just the funneler. We get the chaff off the wheat. Four candidates are much more manageable than eight.

[HereInTheHeartland]

So people WANT Iowa to pick the winner??
First we are told we are insignificant because we don't pick the inner; then we are told we have too much power.

What is it??!!??

[TheGunny]

The fact that he finished 3rd is enough for me;o)

[ngat]

“Perry and Bachman are likely to go out today.”

If they do, will they endorse? Reports on morning shows say McCain is going to endorse Mittens today. We shall see.

[MestaMachine]

You started off saying Iowa was ‘irrelevant’ and then listed a myriad of reasons why it is not only relevant, but this year it was crucial.
Bachmann and Perry are out. Santorum is in the spotlight after being virtually ignored by EVERYONE since the process began, and romney was totally embarrassed after outspending Santorum a hundred to one.
The dynamic completely changed last night. Maybe it is irrelevant to you, but I’ll bet it is not irrelevant to a whole lot of other people who will see things a lot differently today. romney can be beaten soundly now that Conservatives won’t be splitting their botes ten ways from Sunday.
Relevant? You betcha.

[BenKenobi]

“He may even be wise to abandon NH to concentrate on more-friendly environs of SC and Florida.”

Why? If he finishes second, he gains even more delegates on Newt.

So far it’s Santorum 1, Newt 0. Doesn’t matter what the national polls say, it’s all up to the individual states.

[MestaMachine]

gah! votes.

[bayoung18]

Based on 2008 I wouldn’t call a McCain endorsement a positive thing for Romney.

[Reaganite Republican]

Well, Newt leads nationally and more importantly thoughout the South... yet he came in 4th

Santorum will never win another state

Irrelevant? You betcha