Skip to comments.Was the Bagram 747 Crash a Terrorist Drone/UAV Attack in the Runway Kill Zone (RKZ)?
Posted on 05/02/2013 8:45:09 AM PDT by Seizethecarp
The horrific crash of a 747-400 at Bagram (here) has yet to be fully investigated and claims are already being made that it was a stall caused by a loose cargo that caused tail of the aircraft to drop and the nose to rise depriving the wings of lift.
The Bagram 747 crash has many similarities to the even more horrific crash of AWACS flight Yukla-27, (here) which was caused by the aircraft striking at least two Canada Geese in the Runway Kill Zone (RKZ) as discussed on an earlier post on this blog (here).
Terrorists familiar with the vulnerability of large jet airliners in the RKZ could produce a nearly identical or very similar crash profile to the Bagram event. They could do this by mining the Bagram runway with autonomous GPS-guided multi-copters placed exactly where they would collide with each jet turbine as the 747-400 passed through the RKZ of the Bagram runway.
There’s probably enough footage of this to be able to say yes or no.
No, it looks like a cargo shift..
One would expect some visual indications from engines not producing thrust. While the film makes it hard to see the nose attitude of the plane it was definitely going slow, the wing rolled left slightly and then rapidly to the right as the nose dropped. Cargo shift or, improper placement/weight and balance look more probable.
AR-15 in the trunk of the plane obviously....sheesh. They had the guys on live when cargo shift was mentioned before the 747 hit the earth.
It even LOOKS like cargo shift....happened just like this in the 90s in FL.
They could do this by mining the Bagram runway with autonomous GPS-guided multi-copters placed exactly where they would collide with each jet turbine as the 747-400 passed through the RKZ of the Bagram runway.
What a nut to claim that happened. What the video. There was no engine failure.
Crash: National Air Cargo B744 at Bagram on Apr 29th 2013, lost height shortly after takeoff
If you watch the video is pretty obvious they were climbing at too steep of an angle and the plane simply stalled.
Not only was it not terrorist, I doubt it was even cargo-shift. It has the look of simple (and I might add classic) steep climb stall. Once the aircraft stalled, clearly the nose dropped (as it is supposed to do) and the pilot appeared to be regaining control. Another 12-1500 feet of altitude and it might have been the most impressive ‘buzzing’ of the field ever recorded.
And yes, this exact type of accident has happened before. When you get that much mass rotating that quickly, Mr. Newton takes over and makes it continue to rotate even as the pilot commands it to stop. As some point airspeed diminishes below stalling speed, and you become a passenger until the nose drops and airspeed is regained. Hopefully you don’t run out of altitude before that happens.
Were there any locals on that ground crew who loaded the aircraft? Were maximum capacity limits ignored? It's hard to watch that dashcam video, and I found that the puppy whimpering then the driver chuckling kind of odd, given the enormity of what just happened. Horrible.
Exactly, causing an engine flame-out with invisible flames...
From the video I’ve seen it looks like an extremely high angle of ascent combined with a possible cargo shift. There was no smoke or obvious damage to the plane before it crashed.
I see that all but 1 of the 7 killed were from here in Michigan. Apparently the company is based at Willow run.
Willow Run? Was it a Kallita bird?
No. Next question.
According to a listener on frequency the crew reported the aircraft stalled due to a possible load shift.
Smells like a blog pimp to me!
I think you meant that for the original poster.
Clearly load shift.
Way too much conspiracy BS lately.
Great link ... thanks for that.
Another 12-1500 feet of altitude and it might have been the most impressive buzzing of the field ever recorded.
Maybe in a Cessna 150 but more like 5,000’ in a 747
It’s a stall.
Something like this happened to a small commuter jet a few years back, if I remember correctly.
The cause of that commuter accident was incorrect center-of-gravity loading.
I’m betting it’s the same thing here.
And - perhaps Boeing changed the design, but I do not remember 747-400 having the rather normal nose profile that I think I’m seeing in that movie (not that the type of plane matters...if one Obamas up the CG, any plane will perform like liberal economists do).
National Air Cargo is located in Orchard Park, NY a suburb of Buffalo. My son used to work for the company.
I’ve also thought that maybe the practice is for jets departing that base to take off at a steep angle to avoid possible fire from the ground and in this case the crew just stalled the thing. I used to worry about that happening whenever my family flew out of Ontario or Burbank in SoCal.
“If you watch the video is pretty obvious they were climbing at too steep of an angle and the plane simply stalled.”
Maybe. Maybe not so obvious.
I have watched a lot of take-offs and take-off video and it is very hard to assess from the ground at the end of a runway the angle of ascent of a jetliner.
The four engines on the 747-400 are extremely powerful and all jets taking off from Bagram depart at a high angle of ascent to avoid small arms and RPG fire.
Two things have been noted by expert observers about this stall:
1. The aircraft appears to have lost thrust and with resulting loss of airspeed at a rate greater than could be accounted for only by a stall caused by too high an attack angle.
2. The undercarriage appears to have been fully extended at the time of the crash when it would have been expected to have been fully or at least partially retracted a 1,200 feet that the aircraft is estimated to have attained prior to the plunge. This could indicate that an engine thrust malfunction occurred at or shortly after the “go-no go” point on the runway called V1 was passed and pilots are trained (drilled) to “take the problem into the air.”
Attempting to abort a take-off after V1 speed is attained will far more likely result in going off the end of the runway with loss of the aircraft and loss of life on the plane and on the ground. This is why the zone between V1 and VR (rotation for lift-off) has been called “The Runway Kill Zone” on the blog of that name. V1-VR is a zone where terrorists an knock out one or more engines using GPS guided drones and place the pilots in a situation that they cannot recover from.
The sad story of AWACS flight Yukla 27, which hit at least two Canada Geese in the runway kill zone (RKZ) can now be reverse-engineered by terrorists, as explained on the RKZ blog.
I don’t claim that the Bagram 747 crash was caused by terrorists, but, IMO, the drone technology now exists for terrorists to replicate this crash intentionally and steps must be taken to identify the runway kill zone (RKZ) for all flights protect all airfields from GPS-guided drone attacks in the RKZ.
The public needs to be alert to all suspicious drone activities near airports (no, not RC model enthusiasts at known model airfields even if near airports) and to report them to authorities.
Once that occurs at takeoff there is no maneuver sufficient to correct from that pitch up, tail down stall.
You don't have sufficient speed, thrust, or altitude to regain control.
This story says Florida based company then in the next paragraph says its based at Willow run.
Its obviously a global company so I’m guessing this particular plane or crew were Michigan based
“but more like 5,000 in a 747”
Maybe, but the plane has rolled wings level and nose is only about 25-30 degrees down. He had obviously regained some aerodynamic control, but at that point gravity was still exceeding lift. My only point was I think the aircraft was entirely flyable, give sufficient altitude to recover.
“There was no engine failure.”
I see a loss of thrust. It has been pointed out that the fact that the landing gear was still extended on impact points to possible recognition by the crew of a problem almost immediately after take-off that interrupted retraction of the gear, which should have been well underway at 1,200 feet, according to some claimed expert comments.
The video on the TV news last night was awsome but so deadly to see such a huge aircraft fall out of the sky. Another sad day for families of the dead crew.
The steep takeoff angle could have contributed to a load-shift. The load may not have shifted on a normal takeoff.
“They had the guys on live when cargo shift was mentioned before the 747 hit the earth.”
Did they? That is a claim. A lot of what is reported right after an incident turns out to be bogus, as we just saw in Boston. I will await the cockpit recorder.
The Runway Kill Zone blog is not claiming that this event WAS a terrorist attack, but only that a terrorist could intentionally achieve a similar result. Note that as few as two Canada Geese caused a similar stall and crash of an AWACS in Alaska, as explained and linked to on the blog.
Indeed. Especially as the cargo was vehicles. Someone screwed up on the tie-downs, either not properly attached, or inadequate for the load. Something slipped, connectors snapped, and instant major CG shift in the most dangerous portion of the flight. . .
Check the National Air Cargo website. http://www.nationalaircargo.com/default.aspx
I see a loss of lift. That is different than a loss of thrust.
This accident probably left the black boxes fully recoverable, so real data should be available to the accident investigators soon. No need to pander to knee-jerk conspiracy theorists about hypothetical GPS drone attacks.
The typical consumer grade quadcopter probably doesn't have enough mass to constitute a serious threat anyway. I bet a golden BB attack would have a higher probability of success.
“Its a stall.”
But what caused the stall?
1. nose of plane too high?
2. loss of thrust?
3. cargo shift
4. loss of control of control surfaces?
5. improper flapp settings?
The point of the blog post is that terrorist can intentionally cause a stall nearly identical to the one that occurred at Bagram, without claiming that this is what happened there.
“According to a listener on frequency the crew reported the aircraft stalled due to a possible load shift.”
That is the claim. Many claims at the time of an accident don’t prove to be true.
The point of the blog is not that this was NOT caused by cargo shift, but that a similar stall could be achieved by use of GPS-guided drones place to mine the Bagram runway in the V1-VR Runway Kill Zone (RKZ).
This is a cargo plane.
It is climbing out at a very steep angle in a hostile zone.
The footage to me looks clearly like a cargo shift.
The plane stands on its tail, decelerates rapidly and departs from controlled flight to begin that settling crash into the ground that looks completely characteristic to me.
“Furthermore an engine taken out by something in the compressor would be sending out bursts of flame and smoke in profuse quantity, especially if it was a full power (as it would be, especially at that airport).”
“No need to pander to knee-jerk conspiracy theorists about hypothetical GPS drone attacks.”
The Runway Kill Zone blog does not claim that this crash WAS caused by terrorists. The blog attempts to educate officials and the public to the emerging threat posed by terrorists who can now reverse-engineer bird-strike type engine failures in the V1-VR “kill zone” which would look a lot like this crash profile.
“The typical consumer grade quadcopter probably doesn’t have enough mass to constitute a serious threat anyway.”
As pointed out up-thread, tiny kestrel birds brought down 747!
Here are the stats on the kestrel:
Common Kestrels measure 3239 cm (1315 in) from head to tail, with a wingspan of 6582 cm (2632 in). Females are noticeably larger, with the adult male weighing 136-252 g (c,5-9 oz), around 155 g (around 5.5 oz) on average; the adult female weighs 154-314 g (about 5.5-11 oz), around 184 g (around 6.5 oz) on average.
Is runway kill blog yours?
Yes it is his. He seems to be dedicated to giving stupid terrorist information about how to bring down planes. Lose lips sink ships.
“Is runway kill blog yours?”
Yes, I am “2branta”...
I went to the US Secret Service in 2006 with this concept and they told me to “get my meds adjusted.”
I then went to the Air Force director of research...the top guy...and he thanked me for bringing this attack vector to his attention and complimented my patriotism. He also pointedly told me that he had forwarded the Runway Kill Zone concept to the Air Force One group commander.
I asked this Air Force research director whether I should keep this concept confidential and he said all of the elements are out there in the public so there was nothing secret about it.
Interesting. WHen I was at Mosul, Balad, and Bagram, we had drone strikes since I was UAV detatchment commander. 2 Ravens and a Shadow.
Raven 1 hit a UH60 that dropped into UAV AOA unauthorized. Nice dent. Soiled pants of pilot and crew. Aircraft grounded until repaired.
Raven 2 hit a Airbus....nice dent. Airbus grounded 24 hours for inspection.
Shadow hit by IL 76. BIG DENT. Grounded airplane that got into our AO.
All drone strikes were pilots not following NOTAMS or leaving their airspace into ours.
Mini copters hitting a 747 ain’t going to bring it down. Much less probable than durka durka with a Mosin Nagant with 100 year old ammo (golden bb).
Nice Blogpimping though....our company blocks all spam and blogs though so I couldnt get on it.
“That is what a cargo shift causes.”
If the weight shift is not greater than aerodynamic force - stick forward to maintain airspeed, flight normal.
If the weight shift is greater than can be aerodynamically controlled (stick forward won’t prevent continued nose rotation)- nose won’t drop when stall is reached.
Airplane reaches stall due to angle of attack, nose drops at stall and after sufficient altitude aircraft becomes controllable - normal ops. Exactly what the video shows, just without sufficient altitude to recover.
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