......when the Democrats got slaughtered (smirk)......
2014 map is Congressional results.
Posted on 11/05/2016 2:17:57 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
With the recent rise in Donald Trump's poll numbers, Wall Street is starting to contemplate the prospect of a better-than-expected Republican Party showing on Election Day.
"It's incredible to see how much the US election has changed in recent weeks," Strategas' Daniel Clifton wrote in a report to clients Thursday.
"The FBI report of new emails from Hillary Clinton's private server has turned the election from a referendum on Trump to a referendum on Clinton. ... In our meetings this week in NY and Boston, it was clear to us that investors are not prepared for a Republican sweep."
A month ago, investors were bracing for a scenario of a Democrat sweep where that party win the White House and win back both houses of Congress. Now, it seems extremely unlikely Republicans will lose the House, and Senate control has become a toss-up, according to the latest polls.
The firm put together stock portfolios for each party based upon which companies stand to do best if a particular party is in power. Using the relative performance of its Democratic versus Republican baskets, Clifton now projects Trump has a 42 percent chance to win the presidential election, which is higher than the betting markets' odds of about 30 percent....
(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...
They’ll get used to it.
They own Hillary, they’ll pout when Trump wins and there will be a dip. But the market will ultimately right itself. Trump’s tax cuts will kick in eventually and the economy will start moving again.
Buying opportunity anyone?
The benchmark is the 2008 election where Obama got 69-million votes.
I think with traditional Republicans voting, 15-to-20 percent of blacks and Latinos crossing over, and 20-percent of middle-class Democrats crossing (particularly in Ohio)....I think Trump can get to the 69-million level or more. It’s hard to see Hillary even reaching 60-million.
The question is....will Republican Senators and Congressmen see gains? I think with the exception of Ohio....all Republican Senators will be re-elected. Harry Reid’s old seat in Nevada is in jeopardy and could be won by the Republican. Most polls of last month put Heck ahead of the Democratic challenger there.
House losses? When the smoke clears....I think the same level of Republican control will exist. No gains, no losses.
What hurt here for the Democrats is a campaign with no enthusiasm. No Democrat got tail-wind opportunities from Hillary, unlike the 2008 or 2012 election with President Obama.
Yes, especially in the biotech/pharma sector.
Whenever the stock market has been down for 3 months prior to an election, the party in office has lost. This has been true since 1926.
The stock market has been down.
Yes!
I know little about the stock market, my husband is the expert at that. But I do know to buy on the dip!
It’s about time.
I have too much cash. Time to rebalance!
Yes. Mostly I’m a longterm investor but purely emotional drops are great buying opportunities as long as the specific companies are sound. I made a quick return buying right after the Brexit vote.
I have a friend who is a Hillary democrat that has already voted. He gets zero news from the net, and relies 100% on MSM print & TV news.
Since the FBI investigation was actually made public by the MSM, he now wishes he had not voted, and maybe would have voted Trump. (I agree, he’s a nationalist/populist that loves America)
It’s also interesting he does not consider Trump a true Republican considering he was a democrat & Clinton friend.
So yes, there will be an impact regarding the investigation. Most honest decent people do not want a crook in the WhiteHut. I have a feeling there are many more democrats/independents that think similar.
The markets are too whacked out for me—don’t trust them and stay away from them.
I do deal with the NYC financial folks—and they believe the NY Times, The Wall Street Journal, and the network and cable news channels.
They are in for a major shock—1980 redux.
Here are my (hopefully salient) observations, which anyone who is intellectually honest should find reasonable. They hinge on the following interrelated factors:
The reality of this was forcefully shown in 2014, when the GOP strongly outperformed polling projections, increasing its majorities at both the federal and state levels: both branches of Congress, state Legislatures, and Governors. This (if I'm not mistaken) continued a trend which began soon after 0bama was elected in 2008.
Since it doesn't suit their narrative, the punditry is, of course, basically ignoring what happened in 2014 in all of its analyses. How much discussion on the TV news has anyone heard about what happened in 2014?
Additionally, as a result of Donald Trump's outreach to Black voters, it's pretty clear that he will get a significantly higher percentage of the Black vote than recent GOP Presidential candidates have, probably in the 15-25% range. This is a devastating development for Hillary Clinton.
Polls have, in general, borne out both of the above trends, and this could represent a major (and potentially permanent) shift in minority attitudes towards the GOP, all thanks to Donald Trump.
Donald Trump's targeting of the Black vote was a bold and brilliant move, and likely something that no other GOP candidate would have done.
Using a more realistic turnout model of, say, D+2, it becomes clear that Donald Trump's support is very likely to be significantly higher than what the polls have been showing for the last several months.
Indeed, my prediction is that Donald Trump should win both the popular vote and electoral college by comfortable (indeed landslide) margins, barring Democrat voter fraud on a truly massive scale (and it's entirely possible that 0bama, Hillary, and their ilk might brazenly attempt to steal this election, even at a severe risk of resulting violence).
If there is evidence of fraud, then Donald Trump should fight it tooth and nail, because the American People deserve to have their voice be heard loud and clear this time around.
While there are several other considerations I could mention, I have to wrap things up and I thing I've captured the gist of the national mood and situation.
In closing, I firmly believe that we are on the verge of Revolutionary change in this country. Indeed, in many aspects this is a counter-revolutionary movement (a desire to restore the positive founding principles of our original Revolution).
Win or lose, I believe this revolutionary movement will continue to grow, albeit it will be met with stiff resistance on the part of some elements of the population:
One thing for sure: the country will never be the same.
That's how I see things at this juncture in American history.
The Revolution is ON!
Vote Trump!
Fox News Wall Street week had every commentator say Trump best for the long term economic outlook. All said there would be initial turmoil during transition. That will be used against him, of course, and Fed will start raising rates.
Yes it will be. This is why cash has been king, waiting for a buying opportunity like this one to come along. Those who panic, sell. Those who remain calm, buy.
Get ready to buy.
The stock market is poised to take a dump as soon as Obama leaves office because of the end of Quantitative Easing and the printing of unbacked dollars. If Trump wins the presidency, the Hillary/Obama bankers will pull out big time and trigger a “correction” many will see as a collapse and, further, the lying media will put all the blame on Trump.
The correction was going to take place anyway - the EU and the Pacific Rim are getting ready to suffer as well. Hillary will use it as an excuse to curb more freedoms and seize more assets. Trump will try to use free market solutions that will help America rebuild but might leave the rest of the global markets in the lurch.
Reagan lived through a very tough first term economically because he was transitioning similarly from Jimmy Carter’s nonsense back to a free market economy. With Trump, it will be worse but at least we will maintain our freedoms on the other side of the downturn.
So, invest in the finite as a hedge because the economic earthquake is coming and the Dems will gleefully step aside and let all the blame go to Trump. Freedom has a price and we will all have to bite the bullet for a time in order to get out of the mess we are in. I’d feel better with a sound businessman steering us through this crisis than a marxist puppet even though the pain might be deeper and the criticism crueler.
Isn’t it uncanny how “supposedly” the smarts minds in the world cannot understand the groundswell of support for Trump.
Show how investors follow the herd.
Whew, I am intellectually honest...no, seriously, that’s a great analysis of the state of affairs.
2014 map is Congressional results.
Reality only bites for them when it is actual reality instead of the faux reality of all the QEs and next to zero interest rates.
Relative who worked for the 2 largest Chicago-based hedge funds told us years ago “There are no elites”. Then, right after he was vested, the market crashed and he lost 90% of a substantial nest egg, while the bosses obscenely profited. Very quiet until this spring, when he accused my husband of being a “neocon supporting Trump. Then, the neocons supported Hilliary. Crickets for the past few months.
The media “of record” carries the blame for the inculcated in America.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.