New Special Report: If Israel strikes Iran’s nuclear facilities

If Israel were to decide that it had no choice but to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, what would be the consequences? This is the question Sam Gardiner tackles in this Special Report.

Israel seems to be losing confidence in the commitment of the Obama Administration to protect its interests with respect to Iran. As tensions with the U.S. increase on this and other issues Israel is arguably pushed in a direction that could lead to an attack against Iran sooner rather than later.

Immediately after an Israeli attack, the United States would begin significant defensive deployments to the region. Policy alternatives and calculations would favour U.S. involvement and the Administration in Washington is assumed to finish what the Israelis started, eliminating Iran's nuclear facilities. As the conflict moves forward, the United States would want to end it as quickly as possible. However, assessments of Iranian action along with a visible opposition inside Iran, would likely lead the Administration to expand the conflict, making regime elimination the new objective.

Gardiner concludes that Iran is the only country with the capacity to prevent the seemingly inevitable movement towards what would be a disaster for itself, for the region, for Europeans, and for the United States.

Download the report The Israeli Threat

This is the second report on consequences of military actions against Iran published by the Asia Security Studies Programme at the Swedish Defence Research Agency. The first report, Consequences of Military Actions Against Iran, was published in 2008. It is available for download at www.foi.se/asia.

I saw this linked on another thread and didn't see it posted at Free Republic. More insights into the international area. Remember, Putin said they were planning to start the Bushehr reactor this summer, so the clock is ticking on all of this.

Note well the final chapter [in the PDF file at the link]. You can sense the urge to isolate Israel in the writer's tone [even the title of this paper], yet he correctly assesses the strong support Israel enjoys in the American Congress. That is a good thing, that Free Republic is a small part in maintaining, and we should continue to under-gird with our prayers and efforts.

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I’m sorry. I don’t see this admin. unilaterally finishing what Israel may start.
IMHO it would take an Iranian attack of some magnitude to goad Zer0 into attacking them.

And even if Zer0 did ok attacks they would likely be ‘measured’ in their ferocity. And beforehand he would fiddle around in the UN, NATO, blah blah.

I have zero confidence in Zer0.

Policy alternatives and calculations would favour U.S. involvement and the Administration in Washington is assumed to finish what the Israelis started, eliminating Iran's nuclear facilities.

Can anyone imagine O ordering our troops to attack an Islamic nation? Really?

The being said I can also not imagine him ordering a follow up attack and NOT ordering attacks on Israeli aircraft on their way home.

God bless the Israeli's if they do this, as it is virtually suicide either way. Our attacking Tokyo (in B25's) from carriers had nearly a better chance for the pilots than the Israeli pilots will have.

One: the study of “implications,” ‘ramifications’, and ‘consequences’ of a or multiple Israeli airstrike against Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities has long been contemplated, as well as done.

http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/090316_israelistrikeiran.pdf

http://s3.amazonaws.com/thf_media/2010/pdf/bg_2361.pdf

Later dated studies can also easily be found with Google.

Two: I have long been suggesting that the reason why the Israelis have NOT done a or multiple airstrikes against suspected Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities is because Israel’s intel. services have concluded that short of using multiple tactical nuclear weapons, Israeli airstrikes would not halt Iran’s drive to obtain nuclear weapons. In short, Israel’s intel. services have come to the conclusion that Iran’s nuclear weapons program is too far along to be stopped.

"Israel seems to be losing confidence in the commitment of the Obama Administration to protect its interests with respect to Iran."

In related news, Sept. 11, 2001: Businessmen seemed to be losing confidence in the ability of the World Trade Center to support its own weight.

December 7, 1941: American sailors seem to be losing confidence in the ability of diplomats to peaceably resolve the dispute with Japan.

June 14, 1940: The French seem to be losing confidence in the ability of the Maginot Line to stop Hitler's army

Thanks Salem! It's a little dry, and maybe a little obvious, but it's nice to see someone actually looking at this dispassionately.

Israel seems to be losing confidence in the commitment of the Obama Administration to protect its interests with respect to Iran. As tensions with the U.S. increase on this and other issues Israel is arguably pushed in a direction that could lead to an attack against Iran sooner rather than later. Immediately after an Israeli attack, the United States would begin significant defensive deployments to the region. Policy alternatives and calculations would favour U.S. involvement and the Administration in Washington is assumed to finish what the Israelis started, eliminating Iran's nuclear facilities. As the conflict moves forward, the United States would want to end it as quickly as possible. However, assessments of Iranian action along with a visible opposition inside Iran, would likely lead the Administration to expand the conflict, making regime elimination the new objective. Gardiner concludes that Iran is the only country with the capacity to prevent the seemingly inevitable movement towards what would be a disaster for itself, for the region, for Europeans, and for the United States.

Iran's capacity to prevent this doesn't exist per se -- without outside help, the Iranian people have proven to be unable to extricate themselves. They need a manifesto, NOW -- some polite suggestions as minimum requirements:

that the mullahcracy is illegitimate
that the mullahcracy is a form of foreign rule
that the only way a return to the mullahcracy can be avoided in the future is the elimination and permanent ban of Islam from Iranian society

"...but it's nice to see someone actually looking at this dispassionately."

Which is, I suppose, the biggest reason the paper gives one pause. With other resources of this same nature coming from sources not inclined to publish them, one ponders what will be happening in the near future.

I directed a friend at work to this particular one. Told him might as well read it now, it will be tomorrow's headlines.

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