Skip to comments.Author Says Earthquakes Are Predictable
Posted on 05/31/2014 2:35:57 PM PDT by BenLurkin
Nabhan is a former teacher in California and now lives in Pittsburgh. He became interested in earthquakes while he was the earthquake preparedness coordinator for the school he worked at. He says he noticed every earthquake happened at dusk or dawn.
I realized this sort of conscience doesnt happen in science. These dawn and dusk quakes during new and full moons are the paradigm on the west coast, he said. All six great quakes that have struck in Los Angeles that have killed people since the 30s, all of them, dawn or dusk [quakes].
How can earthquakes be predicted? Nabhan says that it is the, conjoined lunar and solar gravitational tides, are what cause them.
Just imagine the muscle required to move our oceans around every day. Our fractured fault lines are not immune to this [power], he said.
(Excerpt) Read more at pittsburgh.cbslocal.com ...
No matter how back California is supposed to be, only a nut would leave there -- to move to Pittsburgh
I think Zero Hedge-type posts are predictable.
Dusk happens once a day, dawn happens once a day.
When this dweeb can tell me which day, month and year I can expect the next quake I’ll listen to him.
Until then the theory of cow farts is just as good.
Solution...turn off the sun. Kill two birds with one stone...earthquakes AND global warming.
One less nut job living in my state.
The San Francisco earthquake of 1989 happened at 5:04 Pacific time, well before sunset.
The Northridge quake in LA in 1994 happened in the middle of the night, well before sunrise.
The Whittier Narrows quake of 1987 happened about 8:30 am, if I recall correctly.
Does he really mean within a few hours of dawn or dusk, as opposed to high noon? Or is this is theory not supported by evidence?
Is he saying that every coincidence has a conscience?
I believe that there is a correlation between the phases of the moon and earthquakes. I don’t have any data to back this up but historically many of the Big Ones have occurred close to the Full Moon. The Indian Ocean quake that set off the huge tsunamis a few years ago was close to the Full Moon. The Good Friday earthquake in Alaska in 1964 occurred at 1733 - the Moon was full at 1729. Hmmm...
They are predicted to knock down things.
I predict a tornado will touch down sometime this summer in the middle area of the country.
Did a little research on the guy. The headline is a bit misleading. He is saying that he believes hey are predictable and that seismic scientists should investigate if they ARE predictable. He isn’t saying that he has concluded they are.
There's a reason for this: many animals are very sensitive to infrasound and start acting abnormally when the Earth's crust has higher than normal infrasound activity.
The moon is a powerful force on the earth. Witness the tides.
This supposed correlation has been noted before, but it never pans out. It remains a favorite among unlearned amateurs.
A good cue is that more accurate predictions have three characteristics:
1) They are based on current seismic activity, such as foreshocks and aftershocks.
2) The window in the future is soon and narrow. If today is Monday, for example, and the prediction is maybe Tuesday, likely from Wednesday through Friday, and as late as next Monday.
3) They always give a statistical probability. Usually these are under 20%, unless there are some particularly good foreshocks or aftershocks.
Earth’s Gravitational Pull Is Creating Bulges on the Moon
8 hours ago
Scientists have known for a long time that the gravitational pull between the Earth and the moon have warped both bodies to look slightly egg-like in shape, but new data collected from NASA missions is revealing just how that pull is affecting the moon.
MIT scientist Erwan Mazarico, who works at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, explains that “the deformation of the moon due to Earth’s pull is very challenging to measure, but learning more about it gives us clues about the interior of the moon.”
IRCC I read 20-30 years ago that animals flee just before earthquakes so why not just watch what they’re up to? Redirect polar bear funds for this purpose.
I don't know about you, but I was in that one. It was at about 4:30 in the morning, not really middle of the night, but pre-morning, is how it felt to me. I felt from hundreds of miles away '89 quake in San Francisco, and it was at five on a fall day -- sunset was only 90 minutes out. I would classify the time as near sunset, near the end of the day. If it was an hour or two earlier -- 3 or 4, at that time of year, no. But 5-ish, yeah.
This guy has been doing this for a few decades:
After more than ten years with the Department of Interior, I resigned my position in order to work on my Doctorate at the University of California at Davis between 1969-1972. This was an exciting time to share in the new revolution in Earth Sciences, as the theory of Plate Tectonics fleshed out the discredited concepts of Continental Drift.
I have published more than 50 scientific papers, many of which utilized my PhD studies, including a paper delivered at the International Geological Congress at Montreal in 1972.
I returned to California to become the first County Geologist for the most populous county in northern California, Santa Clara County. I held that position from 1973 until my retirement in 1994. Besides helping to establish geologic ordinances widely held as models in the field, I served on many committees and advisory boards. I also held a position for two years as an adjunct professor at San Jose State University.
It was during this period that I noted that many earthquakes occurred at the time of maximum tidal forces associated with the twice-monthly alignments of the Sun and Moon. I began to make informal predictions, scoring six out of eight during 1974, including the 5.2M Thanksgiving Day Quake of November 27th. This one hit the day after I had predicted it at a meeting of U.S.G.S. geologists and it shook my daughter and me while we were attending the first run of the movie, EARTHQUAKE, although we had originally thought it was part of the special effects.
Despite my successes in earthquake prediction (using tides and abnormal animal behavior), I found it almost impossible to publish on the subject in scientific journals. My career began to suffer although my credentials included fellowship in the Geological Society of America and membership in the Association of Engineering Geologists, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, American Association for the Advancement of Science, Sigma Xi Science Honor Society, Peninsula Geological Society, Seismological Society of America, and others.
Jim Berkland, Geologist (RG 107, CEG 58)
P.O. Box 1926
Glen Ellen, CA 95442
Calif. Registered Geologist (RG-107)
Certified Engineering Geol. (EG-58)
Fellow Geological Soc. America
Member Assoc. Engin. Geologists
Member Assoc. Earthquake Engineering Research Inst. (Past VP San Francisco Section)
Member Peninsula Geological Society (Past Treasurer)
Member Amer. Assoc. Advancement of Science
Member American Archeological Soc.
Co-founder , past President SABER SOC. (Soc. for Adapting Building to the Environment Reasonably)
Taught Geology at Appalachian State University
San Jose State University
6+ years with U.S. Geological Survey
5+ years with U.S. Bureau of Reclamation
21+years as first County Geologist for Santa Clara County, CA
50+ publications in Geology
I guess he means within six hours of either dusk or dawn.
Pittsburgh is a wonderful place.
Within 12 hours.
We had a series of sorta rare earthquakes here a month or so ago and I have had this page on a tab since then.
It shows every earthquake and they are all day and night. The ones around here happened at night, early morning, noon, afternoon, etc.
I never understood the full moon influence. Seems the whole moon is up there pulling all the time, it’s just the light shining on it that varies.
It is fact that the Moon has a stabilizing effect on the Earth. There is no reason why it could not have a DE-stabilizing effect.
In fact, it could be that the Moon is responsible for global warming... er, climate change... er, climate whatever!
Seriously, I think you're correct. On another more ethereal but equally serious note: I was a graveyard shift coffee shop waitress for several years. That's a pretty crazy shift, especially after closing time at the bars. You could correlate crazy behavior with the moon, absolutely.
I predict there will be at least 2 earthquakes, somewhere on the planet, before the day is out.
Nabhan is a former teacher in California and now lives in Pittsburgh... "I realized this sort of conscience [sic] doesnt happen in science. These dawn and dusk quakes during new and full moons are the paradigm on the west coast... All six great quakes that have struck in Los Angeles that have killed people since the 30s, all of them, dawn or dusk [quakes]."Just wow.
Did this guy just read Jim Berkland’s site and decide to run with it?
Next he will be claiming women are predictable.
IPCC...Moon stretching causes
Ocean levels to rise.
Immediate action necessary!!
Women are very predictable. Just remember that at some level, in some vairation, everything is always about her.
Every quake does happen at dawn or dusk,.....somewhere around the globe....
FWIW, his theory has been investigated before and the forces are off by orders of magnitude. What he might be sensitive about, is that most earthquakes, which happen to occur in the very early morning hours, are also coincident very low commuting motion. Most folks are asleep or stationary.
When the quakes happen at dusk, be it morning or evening, highways tend to be congested and public assemblies rapidly forming. Larger casualty rates are found in the larger older structures which might fail in those events.
July 12 bump
Nabhan says July 12 and Sept. 9, between 4:45 to 7:55 a.m. and/or p.m.