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Author Says Earthquakes Are Predictable
cbs ^ | May 29, 2014 12:19 PM | Andrew Limberg

Posted on 05/31/2014 2:35:57 PM PDT by BenLurkin

Nabhan is a former teacher in California and now lives in Pittsburgh. He became interested in earthquakes while he was the earthquake preparedness coordinator for the school he worked at. He says he noticed every earthquake happened at dusk or dawn.

“I realized this sort of conscience doesn’t happen in science. These dawn and dusk quakes during new and full moons are the paradigm on the west coast,” he said. “All six great quakes that have struck in Los Angeles that have killed people since the 30s, all of them, dawn or dusk [quakes].

How can earthquakes be predicted? Nabhan says that it is the, “conjoined lunar and solar gravitational tides,” are what cause them.

“Just imagine the muscle required to move our oceans around every day. Our fractured fault lines are not immune to this [power],” he said.

(Excerpt) Read more at pittsburgh.cbslocal.com ...


TOPICS: Weird Stuff
KEYWORDS: andrewlimberg; california; catastrophism; davidnabhan; earthquake; earthquakes; larryrichert; pittsburgh; quake; temblor; zerohedge
I can't just take this guy very seriously.

No matter how back California is supposed to be, only a nut would leave there -- to move to Pittsburgh

1 posted on 05/31/2014 2:35:57 PM PDT by BenLurkin
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To: BenLurkin

I think Zero Hedge-type posts are predictable.


2 posted on 05/31/2014 2:38:45 PM PDT by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: BenLurkin

Dusk happens once a day, dawn happens once a day.
When this dweeb can tell me which day, month and year I can expect the next quake I’ll listen to him.
Until then the theory of cow farts is just as good.


3 posted on 05/31/2014 2:48:08 PM PDT by 5th MEB (Progressives in the open; --- FIRE FOR EFFECT!!)
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To: BenLurkin
He says he noticed every earthquake happened at dusk or dawn.

Solution...turn off the sun. Kill two birds with one stone...earthquakes AND global warming.

4 posted on 05/31/2014 2:48:26 PM PDT by Don Corleone ("Oil the gun..eat the cannoli. Take it to the Mattress.")
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To: BenLurkin

One less nut job living in my state.


5 posted on 05/31/2014 2:53:58 PM PDT by Huskrrrr
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To: Don Corleone

The San Francisco earthquake of 1989 happened at 5:04 Pacific time, well before sunset.

The Northridge quake in LA in 1994 happened in the middle of the night, well before sunrise.

The Whittier Narrows quake of 1987 happened about 8:30 am, if I recall correctly.

Does he really mean within a few hours of dawn or dusk, as opposed to high noon? Or is this is theory not supported by evidence?


6 posted on 05/31/2014 2:58:46 PM PDT by Dilbert San Diego (et)
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To: BenLurkin
I realized this sort of conscience doesn’t happen in science.

Is he saying that every coincidence has a conscience?

7 posted on 05/31/2014 3:04:19 PM PDT by samtheman
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To: BenLurkin

I believe that there is a correlation between the phases of the moon and earthquakes. I don’t have any data to back this up but historically many of the Big Ones have occurred close to the Full Moon. The Indian Ocean quake that set off the huge tsunamis a few years ago was close to the Full Moon. The Good Friday earthquake in Alaska in 1964 occurred at 1733 - the Moon was full at 1729. Hmmm...


8 posted on 05/31/2014 3:09:37 PM PDT by 43north (BHO: 50% black, 50% white, 100% RED.)
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To: BenLurkin

They are predicted to knock down things.


9 posted on 05/31/2014 3:14:01 PM PDT by SkyDancer (If you don't read the newspapers you are uninformed. If you do read newspapers you are misinformed)
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To: BenLurkin

I predict a tornado will touch down sometime this summer in the middle area of the country.


10 posted on 05/31/2014 3:15:51 PM PDT by Veggie Todd (The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. TJ)
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To: BenLurkin

Did a little research on the guy. The headline is a bit misleading. He is saying that he believes hey are predictable and that seismic scientists should investigate if they ARE predictable. He isn’t saying that he has concluded they are.


11 posted on 05/31/2014 3:22:49 PM PDT by RIghtwardHo
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To: BenLurkin
Actually, idea for predicting earthquake that is starting to get a lot of attention is to analyze the infrasound movement of the earth's crust near earthquake fault lines. This analysis, along with looking at the tidal influence of the Moon, could result in earthquake predictions accurate within plus or minus three hours fairly soon.

There's a reason for this: many animals are very sensitive to infrasound and start acting abnormally when the Earth's crust has higher than normal infrasound activity.

12 posted on 05/31/2014 3:52:06 PM PDT by RayChuang88 (FairTax: America's economic cure)
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To: 43north
Correlation with the moon makes perfect sense to me. Gravity has pull. It's the law! (ha ha)

The moon is a powerful force on the earth. Witness the tides.

13 posted on 05/31/2014 3:54:51 PM PDT by Finny (Thy word is a lamp unto my feet, and a light unto my path. -- Psalm 119:105)
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To: BenLurkin

This supposed correlation has been noted before, but it never pans out. It remains a favorite among unlearned amateurs.

A good cue is that more accurate predictions have three characteristics:

1) They are based on current seismic activity, such as foreshocks and aftershocks.

2) The window in the future is soon and narrow. If today is Monday, for example, and the prediction is maybe Tuesday, likely from Wednesday through Friday, and as late as next Monday.

3) They always give a statistical probability. Usually these are under 20%, unless there are some particularly good foreshocks or aftershocks.


14 posted on 05/31/2014 4:03:44 PM PDT by yefragetuwrabrumuy ("Don't compare me to the almighty, compare me to the alternative." -Obama, 09-24-11)
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To: 43north

Earth’s Gravitational Pull Is Creating Bulges on the Moon

Danielle Wiener-Bronner
8 hours ago

Scientists have known for a long time that the gravitational pull between the Earth and the moon have warped both bodies to look slightly egg-like in shape, but new data collected from NASA missions is revealing just how that pull is affecting the moon.

MIT scientist Erwan Mazarico, who works at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, explains that “the deformation of the moon due to Earth’s pull is very challenging to measure, but learning more about it gives us clues about the interior of the moon.”


15 posted on 05/31/2014 4:16:02 PM PDT by BenLurkin (This is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion or satire; or both.)
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To: BenLurkin

IRCC I read 20-30 years ago that animals flee just before earthquakes so why not just watch what they’re up to? Redirect polar bear funds for this purpose.


16 posted on 05/31/2014 4:28:47 PM PDT by MrKatykelly
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To: Dilbert San Diego
The Northridge quake in LA in 1994 happened in the middle of the night, well before sunrise.

I don't know about you, but I was in that one. It was at about 4:30 in the morning, not really middle of the night, but pre-morning, is how it felt to me. I felt from hundreds of miles away '89 quake in San Francisco, and it was at five on a fall day -- sunset was only 90 minutes out. I would classify the time as near sunset, near the end of the day. If it was an hour or two earlier -- 3 or 4, at that time of year, no. But 5-ish, yeah.

17 posted on 05/31/2014 4:45:13 PM PDT by Finny (Thy word is a lamp unto my feet, and a light unto my path. -- Psalm 119:105)
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To: BenLurkin
In Italy, they put people like that in jail when an earthquake that isn't predicted happens.
18 posted on 05/31/2014 5:31:20 PM PDT by Robert357 (D.Rather "Hoist with his own petard!" www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1223916/posts)
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To: BenLurkin

This guy has been doing this for a few decades:

http://www.syzygyjob.com/

After more than ten years with the Department of Interior, I resigned my position in order to work on my Doctorate at the University of California at Davis between 1969-1972. This was an exciting time to share in the new revolution in Earth Sciences, as the theory of Plate Tectonics fleshed out the discredited concepts of Continental Drift.

I have published more than 50 scientific papers, many of which utilized my PhD studies, including a paper delivered at the International Geological Congress at Montreal in 1972.

I returned to California to become the first County Geologist for the most populous county in northern California, Santa Clara County. I held that position from 1973 until my retirement in 1994. Besides helping to establish geologic ordinances widely held as models in the field, I served on many committees and advisory boards. I also held a position for two years as an adjunct professor at San Jose State University.

It was during this period that I noted that many earthquakes occurred at the time of maximum tidal forces associated with the twice-monthly alignments of the Sun and Moon. I began to make informal predictions, scoring six out of eight during 1974, including the 5.2M Thanksgiving Day Quake of November 27th. This one hit the day after I had predicted it at a meeting of U.S.G.S. geologists and it shook my daughter and me while we were attending the first run of the movie, EARTHQUAKE, although we had originally thought it was part of the special effects.

Despite my successes in earthquake prediction (using tides and abnormal animal behavior), I found it almost impossible to publish on the subject in scientific journals. My career began to suffer although my credentials included fellowship in the Geological Society of America and membership in the Association of Engineering Geologists, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, American Association for the Advancement of Science, Sigma Xi Science Honor Society, Peninsula Geological Society, Seismological Society of America, and others.

Jim Berkland, Geologist (RG 107, CEG 58)
P.O. Box 1926
Glen Ellen, CA 95442

Calif. Registered Geologist (RG-107)
Certified Engineering Geol. (EG-58)

Fellow Geological Soc. America
Member Assoc. Engin. Geologists
Member Assoc. Earthquake Engineering Research Inst. (Past VP San Francisco Section)
Member Peninsula Geological Society (Past Treasurer)
Member Amer. Assoc. Advancement of Science
Member American Archeological Soc.
Co-founder , past President SABER SOC. (Soc. for Adapting Building to the Environment Reasonably)
Taught Geology at Appalachian State University
San Jose State University

6+ years with U.S. Geological Survey
5+ years with U.S. Bureau of Reclamation
21+years as first County Geologist for Santa Clara County, CA

50+ publications in Geology


19 posted on 05/31/2014 5:44:03 PM PDT by ForYourChildren (Christian Education [ RomanRoadsMedia.com - a classical Christian approach to homeschool])
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To: Dilbert San Diego

I guess he means within six hours of either dusk or dawn.


20 posted on 05/31/2014 5:53:38 PM PDT by JimSEA
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To: BenLurkin

Pittsburgh is a wonderful place.


21 posted on 05/31/2014 6:59:31 PM PDT by PghBaldy (12/14 - 930am -rampage begins... 12/15 - 1030am - Obama's advance team scouts photo-op locations.)
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To: Dilbert San Diego

Within 12 hours.


22 posted on 05/31/2014 7:00:05 PM PDT by PghBaldy (12/14 - 930am -rampage begins... 12/15 - 1030am - Obama's advance team scouts photo-op locations.)
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To: BenLurkin

We had a series of sorta rare earthquakes here a month or so ago and I have had this page on a tab since then.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map

It shows every earthquake and they are all day and night. The ones around here happened at night, early morning, noon, afternoon, etc.

I never understood the full moon influence. Seems the whole moon is up there pulling all the time, it’s just the light shining on it that varies.


23 posted on 05/31/2014 7:20:26 PM PDT by eartrumpet
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To: Finny

It is fact that the Moon has a stabilizing effect on the Earth. There is no reason why it could not have a DE-stabilizing effect.

In fact, it could be that the Moon is responsible for global warming... er, climate change... er, climate whatever!


24 posted on 05/31/2014 7:35:32 PM PDT by 43north (BHO: 50% black, 50% white, 100% RED.)
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To: 43north
Yeah!! The moon is causing global warming!

Seriously, I think you're correct. On another more ethereal but equally serious note: I was a graveyard shift coffee shop waitress for several years. That's a pretty crazy shift, especially after closing time at the bars. You could correlate crazy behavior with the moon, absolutely.

25 posted on 05/31/2014 7:50:17 PM PDT by Finny (Thy word is a lamp unto my feet, and a light unto my path. -- Psalm 119:105)
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To: PghBaldy
go browns

;^)

26 posted on 05/31/2014 7:57:03 PM PDT by BenLurkin (This is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion or satire; or both.)
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To: BenLurkin
It's always dusk or dawn somewhere - just as it's always noon somewhere for those who never drink before noon....

I predict there will be at least 2 earthquakes, somewhere on the planet, before the day is out.

27 posted on 06/01/2014 3:05:44 AM PDT by trebb (Where in the the hell has my country gone?)
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To: BenLurkin; 75thOVI; agrace; aimhigh; Alice in Wonderland; AndrewC; aragorn; aristotleman; ...
Thanks BenLurkin.
Nabhan is a former teacher in California and now lives in Pittsburgh... "I realized this sort of conscience [sic] doesn’t happen in science. These dawn and dusk quakes during new and full moons are the paradigm on the west coast... All six great quakes that have struck in Los Angeles that have killed people since the 30s, all of them, dawn or dusk [quakes]."
Just wow.

28 posted on 06/01/2014 2:53:56 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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http://www.earthquakepredictors.com/About_The_Author.php


29 posted on 06/01/2014 2:56:00 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: BenLurkin

Did this guy just read Jim Berkland’s site and decide to run with it?


30 posted on 06/01/2014 3:04:28 PM PDT by Axenolith (Government blows, and that which governs least, blows least...)
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To: BenLurkin

Next he will be claiming women are predictable.


31 posted on 06/01/2014 3:08:09 PM PDT by ThomasThomas (Them there voices may not be real but they sure have some fun Ideas.)
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To: BenLurkin

IPCC...Moon stretching causes
Ocean levels to rise.
Immediate action necessary!!


32 posted on 06/01/2014 3:16:46 PM PDT by tet68 ( " We would not die in that man's company, that fears his fellowship to die with us...." Henry V.)
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To: ThomasThomas

Women are very predictable. Just remember that at some level, in some vairation, everything is always about her.


33 posted on 06/01/2014 3:39:00 PM PDT by BenLurkin (This is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion or satire; or both.)
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To: Don Corleone

Every quake does happen at dawn or dusk,.....somewhere around the globe....

FWIW, his theory has been investigated before and the forces are off by orders of magnitude. What he might be sensitive about, is that most earthquakes, which happen to occur in the very early morning hours, are also coincident very low commuting motion. Most folks are asleep or stationary.

When the quakes happen at dusk, be it morning or evening, highways tend to be congested and public assemblies rapidly forming. Larger casualty rates are found in the larger older structures which might fail in those events.


34 posted on 06/01/2014 4:14:50 PM PDT by Cvengr (Adversity in life and death is inevitable. Thru faith in Christ, stress is optional.)
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To: BenLurkin

July 12 bump


35 posted on 07/11/2014 8:40:01 PM PDT by TBall
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To: TBall

Yup!


36 posted on 07/11/2014 9:28:10 PM PDT by BenLurkin (This is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion or satire; or both.)
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To: BenLurkin
I booked marked this thread to see how accurate this guy was. Pretty scary how accurate he was.

Nabhan says July 12 and Sept. 9, between 4:45 to 7:55 a.m. and/or p.m.

37 posted on 08/24/2014 2:45:15 PM PDT by CaptainK (...please make it stop. Shake a can of pennies at it.)
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