Posted on 08/15/2022 9:15:07 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
If someone proposes a solution to an "existential problem" that has no chance of success, should we be forced to take the problem seriously?
If the climate alarmists truly believe there is a climate emergency, then they should be able to answer the first basic question about "the plan." Are the numbers in the plan even remotely achievable? Remember: based on their screeching, we have only twelve years before we all die from "man-made climate change."
To answer that question, let's break part of the plan into the most basic math problem: can we replace 25%, 50%, or 75% of the cars on the road in ten years? To understand the theoretical possibility, we will simplify this to how many years will it take to replace all vehicles on the road in the U.S.
I will start with how many vehicles are on the road today in the U.S.
According to this link, in 2020, there were 286 million. I will round that to 300 million to simplify the math.
How many total vehicles are sold every year in the U.S.? This link answers that an average of a little fewer than 15 million vehicles are sold in the U.S. every year (assuming sold vehicles and production capacity are related).
How many electric vehicles are produced in the US? From this link, we produce fewer than 1 million. I will round up to one million for my calculation.
The simple math problem is, how many years will it take to replace all the cars in the U.S. with electric vehicles (total in the U.S. rounded up / average production volume per year)?
It is 300M / 15M/year = 20 years.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
First, there are no new additions into the economy of drivers and vehicles.
Second, that we can convert all production to electric vehicles overnight.
If you believe that we are all going to die in 12 years ( as folks like AOC and John Kerry keep telling us ), we are eight years too late in converting to all electric vehicles even if the underlying assumptions were possible.
This simple math problem shows that the people that are screaming the loudest do not have a serious solution to the existential problem of "man-made climate change." The automobile situation in the U.S. alone cannot be resolved in twenty years, let alone in ten years.
The simple math problem is, how many years will it take to replace all the cars in the U.S. with electric vehicles (total in the U.S. rounded up / average production volume per year)?
It is 300M / 15M/year = 20 years.
= = =
Assumes EV production level stays constant; probably will increase.
Assumes each EV buyer keeps his EV 20 years. (maybe he will sell it and it stays on the road.)
Assumed that each EV will keep running for 20 years.
But it is a decent starting point for discussion.
Democrats vote based on how they feel. Not math.
I once served on a public board and a Democrat colleague admitted to me privately that she knew a budget amendment she just voted for was uneconomic but she felt it was the “right thing to do” and “hoped it all worked out”. I thanked her for her honesty and said that she confirmed what I thought.
Electric vehicle batteries store energy, but do not really make any.
Electric vehicles are powered by whatever powers our electric grid. Nuclear, coal, gas, etc...
They also are messy to dispose of and the rare earths require huge open pit mining.
RE: Assumes EV production level stays constant; probably will increase.
Here is where the math gets a little more fun:
If we are currently producing 1 million electric vehicles a year, and we are struggling to attain the materials to hit that number, what is the maximum number of electric vehicles we can produce without a “magic wand”?
I will be generous and say we can at best expect to TRIPLE production to 3M a year.
If we need 300M to be produced (300M / 3M/year = 100 years), that means that it will take 100 years just to replace all the vehicles on the road. Companies are already struggling to get the minerals needed for batteries.
When we try to go from 1M to 2M, it will get worse and more expensive. I can’t even image the costs and environmental impact of trying to go from 2M to 3M. If this is a reasonable assumption, then in ten years, the best we can hope to achieve in the U.S. is replacing 10% to 15% of the vehicles on the road with electric vehicles.
BTW, this does not yet discuss the ELECTRIC GRID. What energy source are we going to use to charge all these new EV’s.
It also does not discuss — HOW MUCH on average the EV’s will cost and how many percent of driving Americans can AFFORD them.
That is an even bigger pipe dream than getting everyone into EVs.
C’mon man…liberal RATS don’t do, math, logic or reality…
To all the stupid leftists....well, no more driving or flying for you ....no more vacations starting NOW...we have a climate emergency so turn off your AC and help save the planet. See, I don’t care about climate change so I’ll keep on driving/flying/ using AC etc. But not you.
The globalists plan on far fewer people, mostly crowded into regional cities, with only the privileged having cars.
So this arithmetic exercise doesn’t mean much.
They do not know the answer to either of those questions.
Trying to use logic to counter the Left’s argument does nothing. Counter the argument instead based on what the political use of Climate Change is intended for: Central command and control of the economy and enforced limits on the people’s mobility and thus liberty. Our argument against Climate Change thus needs to be focused on the Tyranny inherent within it, not almost entirely focused on the absurdity of the rhetoric used by its proponents.
EV batteries also don’t last “20 years” before they need replacing. A friend of mine bought a hybrid car from her brother ... it was a great deal, but she was worried about the $4,500 it was going to take to replace the battery in the next couple of years. This was a while ago - maybe batteries are cheaper, but I recently saw an article where a family bought an EV used .... battery went out. The battery was going to cost more than the vehicle was worth & they couldn’t afford it.
Oh they’ll try to force it. They’ll start raising gas taxes. And then pass laws that no more gas stations can be built (some localities in California are already doing it). They’ll make fueling and driving an ICE vehicle as painful as possible.
The 12 year thing, weren’t they saying that about 4 years ago?
We only have about 8 years left (according to AOC and others)
C’mon man…liberal RATS don’t do, math, logic or reality…
/\
Math / numbers are the con man’s best freind.
Hardly anyone checks the #’s.
That’s where are the eco con men hide the sausage.
The number of electric vehicles that can be produced is limited to the supply/demand/price of rare earths and other materials that are in short supply.
Right now, China is in the process of cornering the entire market - even if it means poisoning all the fresh water in the mining area and drainage, destroying hundreds of acres of forest and jungle.
You have to pollute the world in order to drive electric.
Not everybody that has a car now, will be assigned one.
Remember, you will own nothing and like it.
Further, public transit will resolve any residual problems.
The cars will be mostly for high level party functionaries....just like private air travel.
This is the goal of Agenda 21
What about other nations (think India, China, 3d world)? What will be used to recharge those EV's?
And finally, what would be the effect to "climate change" if this occurred (taking into consideration that man-made GW is insignificant to other sources)?
The only thing I can think of is that Al Gore will be richer...
The Klimate Kooks know that the production of EVs, rare earth mines and electric grid problems will take too long to ever accomplish. BUT they will try.
These people have a “fall back plan,” to force the population into cities to reduce the need for automobiles.
Your math is correct but the kooks know the plan.
They are truly Devil’s helpers, only interested in controlling the masses.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.