Posted on 08/05/2011 6:24:54 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
In my ridiculously early handicapping of the 2012 Electoral College, among my caveats was “Presuming that the Republicans nominate a plausible candidate (Romney, Perry, Huntsman, or Pawlenty would all qualify).” Let’s revisit that in light of some other pieces going around.
Public Policy Polling’s Tom Jensen uses state-by-state surveys to proclaim “if the Republicans nominate Mitt Romney it’s a toss up. And if they nominate anyone else it’s 2008 all over again.”
Obama’s holding his ground against everyone but Romney in Nevada because voters there find the whole GOP field even more unpalatable than him. Romney comes close to breaking even on favorability at 38/43 but the rest of the Republicans are quite unpopular- a -9 spread for Cain at 24/33, a -12 for Perry at 24/36, a -21 for Bachmann at 30/51, and a -28 for Palin at 32/60.
Voters disliking the Republican candidates really is a vital component of Obama’s horse race numbers holding up as well as they are even as his approval numbers struggle. It remains to be seen whether he can really get reelected by being the lesser of two evils or if the election will end up being solely a referendum on him regardless of who the GOP puts forward. And one thing’s for sure- if voters ever warm up to one of the Republican candidates Obama will really be in trouble, in Nevada and everywhere.
The problem with this analysis is that, with the exception of Palin and Bachmann, all of the Republicans mentioned have lower disapproval numbers than Obama. Moreover, with the possible exceptions of Palin and Bachmann, most of the non-Romney candidates simply aren’t well enough known at this point for opinion numbers to be particularly meaningful....
(Excerpt) Read more at outsidethebeltway.com ...
If it were 1996 and the economy was booming, I'd agree with you. Times are different. Obama won't be Clinton redux. He'll be Carter redux --providing Republicans restrain their uncanny ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Yep. He’s McCain with better hair.
We saw how that went.
Who’s Milt? We had a Milton Hershey in Pennsylvania once. He was pretty good.
It’s great when the Repubs can’t field a candidate who could beat the WORST President in the history of the world.
And Albert Einstein said insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting a different result each time.
But yet all the people on this forum who say “We’’ll get them next election...”
No matter who the Republicans run “The Divine One” will be reelected. Any statement to the contrary overlooks the vast number of bloc votes in his favor; Mexicans, blacks, jews, and asians. Next such a forecast in favor of a Republican overlooks the “Zombie” vote. Already “The Divine One” has stretched forth his mighty arms and cried in a loud voice “voters come forth!” In response to the “Divine” call millions of the dead are rising with premarked ballots clutched in their cold dead hands. Acorn and the SEIU are premarking ballots as we post. Lastly, as a safety backup plan “The Divine One” has made arrangements with a potential third party candidate who will pull enough votes away so as to give the election to he who controls the tides with his titanic voice!”
Knowing Sarah, she can excite and energize a crowd like none other that I have seen so far this year, including Bachmann. She did it with her acceptance speech in 2008 and for a short time (until the housing crisis broke and McCain suspended his campaign for a while) the Republicans were already closing the gap on Obama and may have pulled into the lead. Then McCain effectively put the brakes on her as it was immediately obvious that she WAS the draw to campaign stops, not him.
Now three years later she has deflected the arrows of the media, become a much more informed person and will be a formidable opponent for any primary challengers.
Detractors continue to say she is only dangling her possible entry for the money she's earning and will disappoint her supporters by declining to run. I disagree. She has stated she has a "servants heart" and a "fire in her belly" to do what she can to save the country.
Those of us who support her had hoped the passing of the late July legal deadline for filing ethics charges and the end of her standby time for possible jury duty would mean an early August entry. It has not happened and in one way it is fortuitous. With this first week in August being tumultuous with national debt challenges in Congress, turmoil in the financial markets, and now the downgrading of our credit rating, publicity accompanying her entry would have been overtaken by these events.
Hopefully, she will make her decision before the beginning of September as we, her supporters, anxiously wait. In any event we need to reclaim the country from the radicals and socialists who are determined to make us into a debt-ridden government-controlled European society. Sarah may be the best person to sound the alarm but we will not know unless she decides to enter the race, meet the other candidates head-on and excite both supporters and others with her personality, determination and country-first fervor.
I would hate to see Mittens on the ticket too..he is just too rino for me..We need a strong conservative, now some sponge who will go along to get along...we have had enough.
Should that last word be Mitt or Milf?
It’s a joke! Gov. Palin called him Milt at some point and it stuck with me.
Atually 0bama is not an epic failure..he has gone about doing just what he promised..to spread the wealth around..and to add to that, just what his wife the First Frump said while she was out on the trail when she said to the effect “ Once Barack is President, you will never be able to go back to your life as you knew it.”and sure enough, the nation has gone nearly bankrupt and we just lost our AAA rating..so he is doing just what he pledged. The problem is the Sheepeople were not listening to what he and his minions were saying..he is doing just what he intended..and don’t for get, int the world of Islam, it is just jimmydamndandy to lie to get to the greater end for the great Allah..( blessings be upon thee)...
We can thank all the PhDs of reality shows and those who did not do due diligence before casting that ballot..we are now in one hell of a mess. I wonder if we will see better times in our lifetimes..or just lose everything. The congress critters should all be canned...they continue to let this happen and the Repubs are worst of all because they know what conservatives sent them to DC to do but they just go along to get along aka McCain...
Given another four years, we'd have wealth redistribution like you've never seen. Poverty redistribution, to be exact. A lot of the permanent shifting of America into a socialist paradise will be lost to him if he can't get a second term. He's basically assassinated the Democratic 40 year reign, and turned a massive 2008 victory into a suicide slide into destruction for his own team. Now the Democrats are heading to an electoral massacre in 2012, and it's largely his doing.
It's sad that the country has suffered and will suffer so much, but we are blessed to have incompetent enemies. Obama could have done far worse damage if he were a little more patient and less of a bumbling, arrogant narcissist.
There are only two possible candidates that can beat Obamajaad. The one is Sarah Palin...the other is Rick Perry.
If one or the other runs, you will see an energized America. Frankly I believe Sarah Palin will run, simply because propping up the record of any one of the other candidates will be a harder row to hoe than running herself.
If she runs, Rick Perry more than likely won’t. If Rick Perry really wanted the presidency he would’ve jumped in right at the start with both feet and locked and loaded.
From the article: "The problem with this analysis is that, with the exception of Palin and Bachmann, all of the Republicans mentioned have lower disapproval numbers than Obama."
Think 1980. And peanut boy wasn't half as bad as The Won.
At this point, I’m wondering if we will even see 2012.
Can anyone not beat Obama?
Will any pubbie beat Obama in 2012? Yes.
I do too. Alas, Milton Friedman is no longer with us so it will have to be someone else. That is who they meant, right?
“Can’t see voting for Romney under any circumstance No way I’d vote dim or third party either. In the Romney scenario, I just may not vote”
ditto
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