Skip to comments.Obama only up 4 in SurveyUSA poll in … Oregon?
Posted on 05/11/2012 12:17:32 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
With all of his other competition out of the way, no one should be surprised how Mitt Romney stacks up against other Republicans in the Oregon primary, set for next Tuesday. A new SurveyUSA poll shows Romney with 58% of the vote, with Ron Paul in a distant second at 14%, which means that the May 15th primary will be as drama-free as possible. However, the poll also shows Romney within the margin of error against Barack Obama in the Democratic stronghold and gaining:
In a November match-up between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney for President of the United States, Obama today edges Romney, 47% to 43%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 2 months ago, when the Republican primary was still competitive, Obama is down 3 points; Romney is up 4. Among women, Obama leads by 13; among men, Romney leads by 6 a 19-point gender gap. Independents break 4:3 for Obama. In 2008, Obama defeated John McCain by 16 points in Oregon.
The sample in this poll uses registered voters, a survey type that normally tilts a little more toward Democrats. The split might tilt more toward Republicans, though, with a D/R/I of 38/35/27. The D/R/I in 2008 was 36/27/37, and given that independents break more for Obama in this poll (44/33), the difference could be having a substantial impact on the results.
The other internals are intriguing. Anyone from Oregon will be unsurprised to discover that Obamas strength comes from the Portland area, which he leads by 12 over Romney, but only at a bare majority of 50/38. In the rest of the state, Romney leads by 13 points, 53/40. Obama also leads among 18-34YOs, but not by as much as one would imagine, 49/38, short of a majority. Obama only scores majorities among self-described liberals and very liberals, while carrying Oregon moderates only by a plurality of 47/37.
Obama may have a solid lead, but its an unimpressive one in what should be a no-worry, loyal Democratic state. By failing to get to 50%, Obama gives an impression of vulnerability in Oregon, a state that last went Republican when Ronald Reagan ran for re-election. Romney might have Obama playing defense outside of the normally-accepted set of swing states in November.
If my memory is right Oregon seems one of those states that always tease the GOP POTUS candidate in the past couple of cycles but when election day comes the networks paint Oregon blue one minute after the polls close.
It’s not burnt enough.
The cities and neighboring suburbs are largely hippie land.
Jim Geraghty has a good overview of how Oregon is a tease.
Geraghty’s analysis is pretty weak in my view:
1. In his first example the early polls said it was close and it was close. Notice that in that case the incumbent president ended with about what he had in that poll, one point more. That is about what Dick Morris would predict with a closer to the election poll.
2. In his second example, the national polls had it closer, really McCain in the lead around that time and then McCain suspended his campaign and refused to compete when his campaign was on and the race turned later on. Ultimately McCain decide he would rather be Senator than run for president.
3. So we have another poll saying the race is close. More importantly the incumbent is below 50% In fact he is enough below 50% that if the state follows the 2004 track, then Romney will win it.
Any predictions, Oregonians?
Well, Eileen Brady, of New Seasons fame, lost. She’s from the Katz/Adams wing of the party. Hales and Smith will be in the run-off for Mayor of Portland, both much more fiscally sound than we’ve seen since Bud Clark.
Even Portland seems to want their potholes fixed, and no more bike paths, trolleys or trams.
A Clackamas County PAC is running against Portland Creep...I love their ads. ;o)
In short, it’s going to be a different election than we’ve seen in the last 20 years...almost like 2010.
Glad Eileen Brady bit the dust. She has never done anything but marry into the New Season’s ownership. I’m not a fan of Charlie Hales, and it is pretty much a given that Jefferson is a mental case, but even so, they have to be better than what we have had.
I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I miss Bud Clark!
Hey, all, Oregon can be surprising. Remember (if you are old enough) that Oregon did not give Bobby Kennedy a win. I know, shocking, huh?
The grocery lady seems to be a very nice person, and I’m thankful that they ran such a clean race. There was a write up about how positive the race was in the HuffPost by Joe Trippi.
I don’t agree with Charlie Hales or Jefferson Smith, but both of them seem to be two who are coming to grips with the reality that Portland can’t afford to create all of those bike paths, or the CRC, and they are fiscally more sound than any mayor since Bud Clark.
IMO, Jefferson Smith could do with some Ritalin, but that might diminish his effectiveness.
I moved here when Bud Clark was the Mayor, so he is the one who, to me, was the most conservative.
That’s a shame.
BTW, I remember Bobby Kennedy, so it’s not a shock to me. Not only that, but Oregon went for Reagan.