Obama Is Ahead, but Is He Winning?

The Atlantic ^ | August 10, 2012 | Molly Ball

[2ndDivisionVet]

Three months remain until election day, and President Obama narrowly leads in nearly every national poll. Gallup's most recent tracking has him up 47-45 over Mitt Romney, for example, and just about every reputable poll for the last two months has shown a similar result. Nate Silver's weighted polling model puts Obama's current share of the popular vote at 50.2 percent to Romney's 48.4 percent, a figure that has scarcely changed since early June.

By the numbers, then, Obama is winning, if barely. (When you factor in the way the election is actually decided, by electoral votes, the president does slightly better.) Yet Republicans seem bullish on their chances. Take Karl Rove: His column in Thursday's Wall Street Journal was headlined "For Romney, Even Means Ahead." Romney, Rove argues, remains standing after weeks of pummeling from the other side. He's gotten tougher and more disciplined, and his fortunes will only improve as voters take a closer look at him with his choice of running mate and convention speech.

Rove isn't being contrarian here -- this is a widely shared sentiment on both sides, for a number of reasons. Here's why many Republicans think they're in good shape -- and many Democrats agree:

1. The GOP's enthusiasm advantage: The evidence that Republicans are more excited about this election than Democrats continues to mount. A memo released Thursday by the Republican polling and advocacy shop Resurgent Republic found that 62 percent of Republicans were "extremely enthusiastic" about voting in November, versus just 49 percent of Democrats. Gallup's recent polling found Democrats less excited about voting than anytime since 2004. Intuitively, this makes sense: Many of Obama's supporters seem weary and disillusioned, while Republicans, though they may not be thrilled with Romney, seem thoroughly fired up to get rid of the president...

[pepsionice]

I think the three debates (and the one VP debate) really amount to more than the average weight in an election. Republicans and Democrats are already decided....it’s independents that matter from this point on out. The debate will make this a different race.

Note, if you had a measurement device to match debate skills of Romney/Ryan versus McCain/Palin....I think the Romney team really makes a debate very difficult for the opposition. Both individuals can quickly put you on the spot and punch at your failures. With the exception of Newt and Governor Christie....I think Romney and Ryan probably are a dynamic debate team.

The Obama camp has issues now, and need to retool their campaign strategy...if you ask my humble opinion.

[JoeProBono]

[KittenClaws]

The kenyan is not ahead, the MSM just says he is.

The question is, will we overpower the sheep who belive the false polls?

Or will our “conscience” give the kenyan power to change this country?

If bambi gets another term, it will have been handed to him by conscientious conservatives who prefer a psychopath over an imperfect republican.

[2ndDivisionVet]

If it’s Paul Ryan, I almost feel sorry for Joe Biden. That’d be like pitting Enrico Fermi against Shemp Howard.

[entropy12]

“Obama is ahead” is good news for now. It should reduce liberal turnout thinking their vote is not needed. Liberals are generally lazy! Which is why most people on welfare are liberal.

[barmag25]

He’s not ahead

[Ingtar]

I have a strong suspicion that something will happen to cancel the debates. If possible, that “something” will be blamed on the GOP.

[pistolpackinpapa]

“Obama is ahead” is good news for now. It should reduce liberal turnout thinking their vote is not needed. Liberals are generally lazy! Which is why most people on welfare are liberal.
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I was thinking the same exact thing before I read your Post #6.

[Slyfox]

I seem to remember Carter leading Reagan just before the Detroit 1980 Republican convention.

[Armaggedon]

If we rise above the Obama rancid river of disinformation we will overcome Obama. If he hooks us with his hatred and lies we lose. Right now Obama’s gang is working hard to get people to hate Romney. Lord Obama has a few helpers among our number. Only someone addicted to hate, greed, fear and hand outs, would want four more years of King Obama.

[LS]

Don’t you love how according to Atlantic enforcing voting laws is “suppressing the vote”?

[LS]

I know a guy who places great stock in Silver. But the problem with all "weighting" models is that if you use the wrong inputs, you still get crap. I still think that Rasmussen, when taken with some amazing micro-level polls, gives a truer picture. For ex, a CT poll has Zero ahead by a few when he won by 20+ in 08. A northern VA poll has similar results. Zero up 2in a region he won by 23 in 08. An AARP poll in FL has Romney winning. The CT poll had Romney up with indies BIG.

Now, when you add all this together there is no way it adds up to an Obama victory.

[bgill]

Funny how the local news hasn’t mentioned a word about Romney being ahead all these weeks but the first time Hussein is ahead, they’re all over it.