Posted on 08/28/2012 12:40:16 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Who’s winning the presidential race? There’s an odd disconnect between the polls and the body language of the candidates. John Harris and Alexander Burns report from Tampa, “Republicans believe Obama’s governing defects should make a GOP victory virtually inevitable, but Romney’s political defects make it only a long-shot possibility.” Likewise, Mark Halperin, after extensive discussion with Obama’s campaign team, remains convinced that the campaign is not bluffing about its belief that it remains ahead in the race and unlikely to lose barring an unforeseen external event.
Could they be spinning? Possibly, though the more self-interested spin for Obama would probably emphasize the closeness of the race (send money! volunteer!) rather than the unlikelihood of defeat. In any case, the actual behavior of both campaigns suggests agreement on this point. Obama is running the same game plan he embarked on last year. Romney has changed things up, junking his original game plan — portraying Obama as a good guy over his head and hoping to make the election a referendum on the economy — to instead emphasize hard-edged attacks on the president and use Paul Ryan to shake up the race. So, however much Romney blusters, his deeds suggest a decided lack of confidence.
The curious thing is that this take is not reflected in the national polls. A Washington Post poll of registered voters yesterday had Romney leading by a point; a CBS poll today shows Obama up by one. Note that registered voters traditionally skew their picture toward the Democrats by around a couple percentage points, since not all registered voters cast a ballot, and Republicans are usually more likely than Democrats to show up at the polls. That would suggest that Romney is actually up by a couple points.
So, what gives?
The best explanation I can muster is that the polls are assuming a much different, and more GOP-friendly, electorate than either party. ABC’s poll assumes that 78 percent of registered voters are white. That is … a whole lot of white people. The white share of the electorate has been dropping steadily for more than twenty years — from 87 percent in 1992 to 83 percent in 1996 to 81 percent in 2000, 77 percent in 2004, and 74 percent four years ago. Ron Brownstein’s recent reporting suggests that both campaigns expect an electorate that’s about 74 percent white. The same problem seems to appear in numerous other polls. Many of them don’t release their racial breakdowns, but those that do seem to imply electorates far whiter than the campaigns are banking on. As pollster Mark Blumenthal has exhaustively shown, Gallup has systematically underweighted the number of minorities in its polls, due to technical issues related to the difficulty of finding and weighting poll respondents.
Now, we don’t know what the racial composition of the electorate will look like. But it is utterly key. Assuming the 74 percent white makeup, and further assuming that Obama’s standing among nonwhite voters holds up as it has with high consistency, then Romney needs to win white voters by more than 20 points, perhaps by around 22 points, in order to prevail. Few polls show him doing that. The ABC poll has him winning whites by eighteen points.
Again, the racial composition of the electorate is a guess. It’s possible that nonwhite voters just won’t show up in the numbers either campaign seems to expect. But the best explanation I can come up with for the gap between the polls, on the one hand, and the apparent confidence of Obama’s camp (and the lack of confident in Romney’s revealed behavior) on the other, it’s that the polls are showing more white people than either campaign projects.
If the electorate makeup really is only 74% white this time, then the Dem turnout will indeed be +7 or +9 on election day.
That means the worst President in the history of our country will enjoy a second term, and dozens of “pure conservatives” on here will be able to smugly say “I told you so”.
The polls are nothing but a joke when Soros’ spanish company is counting the votes.
Obama is a narcissus among his other failings. That could explain it, along with the expected thefts attempted by unions.
“Why Is Obama So Confident?”
Because he is completely out of touch with reality.
So, the author makes up Romney operating without confidence as proof he is not winning. Good grief. These people are delusional.
I’m a New Yorker and I let my subscription to New York magazine expire a few years ago. Even the New York Times is not as biased as New York magazine.
Bored reporter needs to still earn a paycheck apparently.
“This is a liberal spinning the spinning of the spinning of the numbers.”
Classic! Is it OK if I remember that one and use it?
“If the electorate makeup really is only 74% white this time, then the Dem turnout will indeed be +7 or +9 on election day.
That means the worst President in the history of our country will enjoy a second term, and dozens of “pure conservatives” on here will be able to smugly say “I told you so”.”
And I’m sure 88% of the vote will be fraud and unions will be busing members in every state to every other state too?
I swear people on FR love to either lose elections or have some fetish about imaginary invincible political machines at the DNC.
Why? Because he knows where, how and by whom the votes will be counted and he knows that there will be “just enough” for the win. After than, nothing will matter.
Particularly in light of the fact that nearly half of U.S. households receive federal benefits.
This election will not even be remotely close. Romney will win by more than 7%.
Let’s see: Magically found votes in basements closets and cars, dead voters voting, illegals voting, bought votes, etc etc.
My concern is more demographics than it is fraud.
Because of how I saw Mitt Romney shit all over conservatives today, shutting them out of the primary process, that I GUAREN-DAMN-TEE you that if Romney DOES get elected, he will IMMEDIATELY appoint Obama to some Cabinet position.
Do you think Governor Mitt Romney hates this country? Mr. Barack Obama does! Do you think Mitt Romney detests capitalism, the same capitalism that earned him $300 Million or more? Barack Obama does! Do you believe that Mitt Romney would stop Israel from defending itself or stand aside while Israel is destroyed? Barack Hussein Obama would! Do you think that Mitt Romney would raise taxes and impose more red tape and restrictions on job creators, thus stalling the economy? Barack Obama already has. Do you feel that Mitt Romney wants to destroy the oil, coal and gas industries in the USA, thus putting us in the thrall of Islamic potentates who wish us to become Muslims? Barack Hussein Obama is well on the way to doing so. I could go on for hours. I’ve never had any love for Governor Romney, but when the choice comes down to either him or Barack Hussein Obama, a man dead-set on destroying my country, the country of my birth and whose uniform I proudly wore, there is no contest. And that is the choice. No third party or write-in candidate is going to be sworn in next January. As a disabled veteran, I humbly request that you prayerfully consider your position vis a vis the coming election and do what reason and faith tells you is the right thing for the United States of America. Thank you.
It seems to me anyone with half a brain can look at the Job Approval numbers and see Obama can’t be confident of winning.
I guess I am an angry white racist and bigot because I can’t stand Obama, Reid, and Pelosi.
So, basically, public polls are too Republican friendly and Obama’s camp is projecting an entirely different turnout model.
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