Skip to comments.Obama suddenly slips, Romney gains in updated Rove Electoral Map
Posted on 09/25/2012 9:55:27 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
(MAP AT LINK)
Karl Rove's commentary on this week's Electoral Map updates:
"Seven states changed status since last week's Electoral College map, with four moving in Mitt Romney's direction and only three moving toward Barack Obama.
"Mr. Romney saw Georgia move from 'lean' to 'safe' Romney, New Hampshire change from 'lean' Obama to 'toss up,' and New Mexico and Pennsylvania both shift from 'safe' to 'lean' Obama.
"Mr. Obama saw Oregon shift from 'lean' to 'safe' Obama, Wisconsin change from 'toss up' to 'lean' Obama, and Arizona move from 'safe' Romney to 'lean' Romney.
"Mr. Obama is down to 196 'safe Electoral College votes with four states (51 EC votes) 'leaning' in his favor.
"Mr. Romney's 'safe' EC votes increased to 159, with three 'lean' states (32 EC votes) that are more than likely to be in his column on Election Day.
"It should be noted this is the first time since August 1st that Mr. Obama's 'safe' EC vote total decreased while Mr. Romney's grew.
"There are also eight 'toss up' states and a coveted 100 EC votes are up for grabs. These states remain too close to call and show little movement, even after a week of rigorous polling (52 surveys conducted in 18 states)."
Last week's Rove Electoral Map. For previous versions, click on "Electoral Map" in the Subject Categories to the right here...
(Excerpt) Read more at news.investors.com ...
but...but...he’s eye candy on the View.?
Rove is still a jerk!
We HEART Rove now!
I can not believe that my great state of Tennessee is not solid red. Even the home boy, Gore, did not win Tennessee, neither did Obozo.
Maybe they oversampled black Memphis.
“Mr. Romney saw Georgia move from ‘lean’ to ‘safe’ Romney, New Hampshire change from ‘lean’ Obama to ‘toss up,’ and New Mexico and Pennsylvania both shift from ‘safe’ to ‘lean’ Obama.
Hmmm... anything to do with Newt Gingrich and John Sununu?
PA is leaning Obama. Is Santorum on vacation?
Rove is a POS.
I trust his predictions about as much as TheToe Sucker.
Are they using the same numbers?
Draw your own conclusions as to the value of an average of all polls in a state.
Rove, You Magnificient Bastard!
I wouldn’t trust Rove if he told me I had feet. Rove pulled this same BS in 2008 and he was WAY off.
I just wish we’d get this debacle over with so we can focus on building Conservatism and not trying to claim that every pollster in the history of Mankind is involved in some wild conspiracy.
Based on a 30 day polling avg. not exactly current.
I still can’t believe people are even considering Obama. It should be a blowout for Romney. Where have people been for the last four years!
Romney will win Tennessee. McCain won Tennessee last time.
Incumbents in any political race normally enjoy a 12-15 point advantage from the onset of a campaign.
That usually settles to a 7-10 point margin by the time the debates roll around.
If the challenger scores heavily in the debates - that margin can evaporate easily.
As an example, Carter was ahead of Reagan by the typical margin at the time of the last debate. BUT, Reagan nailed him and Carter saw his lead evaporate in a week and got blown out on election day.
In this election, with the polls essentially tied, if I were with the Obama campaign - I would be extremely worried.
There are about 7-9 percent of the electorate “undecided” at this point - and the majority of them historically swing to the challenger [in this case, 4-6 percent].
If Obama gets nailed in the debates, 1-2 percent of those previously voting for him might even change their minds.
That may translate into a cumulative 5-8 percent swing to Romney.
Food for thought ...
That is true. Add this to Jim Messina (Obama campaign) telling people to ignore the polls, and Obama not being able to fill venues anymore, low enthusiasm among his base etc etc... It looks very bad for Obama.
Øbama is but a symptom of an illiterate electorate.
Our problem will remain after this turd is flushed.
Oct is coming the real polling will start.
Romeny will win the entire South.
I can’t believe any of the polls that went from tossup to plus 8 Obama lie Ohio did. Nothing happened to move the meter like that.
What goes on in PA that would make them vote Obama?
All though I should talk....I live in Portland, Oregon. Saw a bumper sticker the other day that said Oregon should secede from Portland. In Portland unions vote themselves raises that the whole state has to pay for.
I miss Robert Novak.
It really is an unfair race though as Obama is running in 57 states and Romney is only running in 50 states.
Correction: It should be a blowout for “all of U.S. conservatism, at each and every political level”, and NOT for RINO, “mushy moderate” Mitt Romney! Sarah Palin, Jim DeMint, Allen West, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Alan Keyes, Virgil Goode, Tom Hoefling, and a finite number of other very conservative individuals would make for a much better POTUS than, either, Barack Obama, or Mitt Romney!
Philadelphia... In Allegheny County (where Pittsburgh is), the county will give out ID’s to people that are just “loose-leaf paper.”
...”I still cant believe people are even considering Obama. It should be a blowout for Romney. Where have people been for the last four years!”...
Howard Stern’s interviews answered that for us a couple of days ago. I am not a Howard Stern fan but I believe he demonstrated the numbed minds of the Obama base in that segment. Those of us who know history and the consequences of collectivist societies are much fewer in number than those who are being rewarded for having a stake in receiving tax payer handouts. Put those people together with the Unions, government employees, the homosexual communities, the black population, the radical feminists, Hollywood, the Hispanic population, Academia and, then, do the math. This was the plan all along..To break America economically..What will take the place of our capitalism which has afforded us freedom to be all we can be? The revolutionaries will determine that and, might I say, those who started the revolution rarely are the ones who end up controlling it.
Add “finite ways of cheating” to your list.
UnSkewed Polling Data
|UnSkewed Avg.||9/4 - 9/20||--||--||44.0||51.8||Romney +7.8|
|Reason/Rupe||9/13 - 9/17||787 LV||4.3||45.0||52.0||Romney +7|
|Reuters/Ipsos||9/12 - 9/20||1437 LV||2.9||44.0||54.0||Romney +10|
|NBC News/WSJ||9/12 - 9/16||736 LV||3.6||44.0||51.0||Romney +7|
|Monmouth Univ.||9/13 - 9/16||1344 LV||2.5||45.0||50.0||Romney +5|
|QStarNews||9/10 - 9/15||2075||3.0||44.0||55.0||Romney +11|
|NY Times/CBS News||9/8 - 9/12||1162 LV||3.0||44.0||51.0||Romney +7|
|Democracy Corps||9/8 - 9/12||1000 LV||3.1||43.0||52.0||Romney +8|
|Fox News||9/9 - 9/11||1056 LV||3.0||45.0||48.0||Romney +3|
|Wash. Post/ABC News||9/7 - 9/9||826 LV||4.0||45.0||52.0||Romney +7|
|CNN/ORC||9/7 - 9/9||875 RV||3.5||45.0||53.0||Romney +8|
|IBD/CSM/TIPP||9/4 - 9/9||808 RV||3.5||41.0||50.0||Romney +9|
|ARG||9/4 - 9/6||1200 LV||3.0||43.0||53.0||Romney +10|
UnSkewed Polling Data
|UnSkewed Avg.||9/4 - 9/20||--||--||44.1||52.9||Disapproval 8.8|
|Reason/Rupe||9/13 - 9/17||787 LV||4.3||44.0||53.0||Disapproval 9|
|NBC News/WSJ||9/12 - 9/16||736 LV||3.6||44.0||54.0||Disapproval 10|
|QStarNews||9/10 - 9/15||2075||3.0||45.0||55.0||Disapproval 10|
|NY Times/CBS News||9/8 - 9/12||1162 LV||3.0||44.0||51.0||Disapproval 7|
|Democracy Corps||9/8 - 9/12||1000 LV||3.1||42.0||55.0||Disapproval 13|
|Fox News||9/9 - 9/11||1056 LV||3.0||45.0||53.0||Disapproval 8|
|Wash. Post/ABC News||9/7 - 9/9||826 LV||4.0||45.0||49.0||Disapproval 4|
|CNN/ORC||9/7 - 9/9||875 RV||3.5||44.0||53.0||Disapproval 9|
Yes, Novak was one of the truly good guys, well, usually he was.
There were times when the inside the beltway mentality would creep into his mindset and I would get a bit angry with him.
However, considering he was on CNN, he was always on the right side of the topics on Crossfire.
On one side we have what seems to be unenthused Dems. Signs of this are sizes of Obama rallies, lack of signs, anecdotes, massive losses in Democratic party registration across swing states. Real numbers also coming in from Ohio absentee ballot requests also seem to imply this.
On the other hand is the ABO crowd, Republicans, including estimated 41 million Tea Party members who would crawl over broken glass to vote Obama out. Many more might be lukewarm about Romney (but enthused about Ryan) but they want Obama out any way they can. Signs of this are bigger RR crowds, more signs, anecdotes, big increases in Republican registration e.g in Florida since 2008.
Turnout is key but I’d bet on the enthused crowd any day.
I wonder if they sampled for all the dead voters who turned out for Obama last time?