Posted on 04/09/2014 12:49:22 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The poll was conducted between March 19 and 23, a week before the White House declared “mission accomplished” on ObamaCare, so maybe it’s simply missing a recent surge in enthusiasm among lefties. The first rule of ACA polling, though, is that the numbers rarely move much no matter what’s going on with the law. They dipped after the Healthcare.gov Chernobyl in October, they bounced back a bit as sign-ups improved, but overall they’ve been steady at around -10 or -12 for years now. Hard to believe that an enrollment milestone will shift that trend markedly and durably, especially with premiums set to rise this fall.
And if it doesn’t, they’re in trouble. Here’s the split right now among likely voters within the “Rising American Electorate,” a.k.a. the Obama coalition of young adults, minorities, and single women, when they’re asked if they’d be more likely to support a Democratic candidate for Congress or a Republican one:
A huge blue advantage — although, as Greg Sargent points out, it’s not as huge as it used to be. In 2012, Democrats won this group 67/32. Meanwhile, though, among the total electorate of likely voters, the Democratic advantage is just 44/43. How can a giant lead among the “RAE” translate into a statistically insignificant single-point lead overall? This is how:
“Non-RAE,” i.e. Republican, voters are far more likely to turn out than O’s base is. To see this slightly differently, compare likely voters overall to the split among “drop-off voters,” people who voted in 2012 but are disinclined to vote in the midterms:
The enthusiasm to turn out this year just isn’t there, for whatever reason. Maybe it’s standard sixth-year presidential fatigue, maybe it’s discontent with the “progress” achieved in O’s second term (especially progress on the economy and unemployment), maybe it’s something else. The pollster, Stan Greenberg, devotes the rest of his memo to showing how the “RAE” numbers would improve if Democrats ran this summer on pocketbook issues aimed at that group — a minimum wage hike, more child-care leave for working moms, etc, which helps explain why O talking about pay equity for women is the soundbite du jour. Not even Greenberg, though, claims that the right message would stop the GOP from making gains in the Senate. This is about triage, not about fully reversing an unfavorable tide.
Which brings me to a question for political junkies: When was the last time one party or the other was able to steer a midterm campaign around to its preferred agenda in a way that materially affected the outcome on election day without obvious help from major intervening events? What I mean is this. During my adult life, the midterm election results have always been most obviously understood as a reaction to the president or to some momentous political development. The big red wave of ’94 was a reaction to total Democratic control of government, which produced HillaryCare; 1998 was a reaction to impeachment overreach; 2002 was a reaction to 9/11; 2006 was a reaction to Iraq; and the big red wave of 2010 was, once again, a reaction to total Democratic control of government, which produced ObamaCare. Those are simplifications, certainly, but the banner-headline items during each period surely did heavily influence voter preferences. When was the last midterm, though, when — and I realize this is a judgment call to some extent — one party was able to elevate its core agenda items (like the minimum wage) above the din of major events and slow a heavy tide in favor of the other party? Has that ever happened? I realize Democrats need some sort of message for the fall and you can always do worse than economic populism, but what’s the precedent for thinking it might work? The GOP plays the ObamaCare card and Democrats play the “more paid leave for working mothers” card and the GOP ends up with only two Senate seats instead of, say, eight? Or is the point here simply to hold the GOP to six pick-ups instead of seven so that Democrats retain control of the Senate?
We will stay away more.
Until. Reagan rises, we aren’t voting!
Now if half of his base would just deport themselves...
I get it now.IMPEACH!!!! Colorful heiroglyphs. At first, when I saw that pretty peach, I though about Georgia.
Interesting speculation, but it doesn’t look at the situation on the other side of the fence: there is a serious amount of conservative irritation with the gop-e. Whether that translates into conservatives staying home across the board is anyone’s guess.
Given the array of uniparty luminaries I see so far for senate and my House district, I see little point in even showing up.
While the gop and their associated pundits are rushing to count their 2014 chickens, I would suggest that they haven’t hatched yet.
Well I guess the Obamacare voter registration scheme will come in handy for them.
Considering that they stay home every other day while decent Americans go to work, it’s no surprise that Obama voters are ready to stay home on election day too.
There is so much democrat fraud in the voting process, polls are meaningless...
I’m sure this cycle we will see dems committing open fraud since this DOJ is totally corrupted and politicized....
Thanks 2ndDivisionVet.
folks all over have come to the reality that obammy sucks.
They are staying home because the dems haven’t chosen a black communist to run yet.
“GULF NEWS: Afghans defy threat to vote”
“THE people of Afghanistan have shown strength of character by defying the diktats of the Taliban, who threatened their participation in the elections with reprisals, by turning out to vote for a stable government. Amid the threat of violence, civilians cast their ballots to ensure these significant polls would shape their future. The world watches as Afghans prepare to govern themselves after a transfer of power this year, following a 12-year occupation and attempts at reconstruction of the country by foreign forces.
Awareness of international issues and increasing levels of literacy among the urban population ensured that the Taliban’s attempts to impose fear were snubbed.
Conflict, fraud and administrative bungling continue to plague society and these polls were no different.
What stands out, however, is the triumph of the people’s will.
The truth lay in the long queues that spilled outside voting centres, after the deadline had passed, even though the authorities closed down at least 1,000 stations due to threats of violence. The Afghans are known for their perseverance and tenacity. A stable government of their choice should be the least of their compensation, given their untold suffering.”
No wonder they have never been conquered. America will fall due to obesity.
His deadline to produce those Skittles-pooping unicorns appears to be up.
you left off the sarcasm tag
All they need is 10,000,000 voters and when they all vote ten times . . .
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