The Senate Races of 2004

None ^ | 12/10/02 | RepublicanWizard

[republicanwizard]

Jim Robinson and fellow Freepers,

I felt it necessary to set up a big post to follow developing news about the 2004 Senate races. Although we lost in Louisiana, I'm still reasonably ecstatic over our chances in 2004.

Please post any developing news on this thread, such as candidates and polls.

Thanks.

[republicanwizard]

Best of all, with Bush's probable numbers in the South,
we won't need as much money usually required to take so many seats:

On Bush's coattails, we could pick up:
South Dakota
North Dakota
Georgia
South Carolina
North Carolina
Louisiana

Easily!

[JohnnyZ]

Whew, don't know about the "easily pick up" part -- we need good candidates!! I would add Nevada to that list of pickup opportunities.

Indiana's (Rat) Lt. Gov. has decided NOT to run for governor in 2004, which leaves a wide-open field -- there has been some speculation that Sen. Bayh might go back to governoring Indiana, in part because of the Senator's Curse (running for prez), but it's all very speculative. Otherwise Bayh will be running for senate again.

Speaking of retirement, can we retire Kay Bailey Hutchinson in 2006? I can think of a few guys named Bonilla and Paige who'd be great in that seat.

[republicanwizard]

Damn! I forgot about Nevada. That is another near-certain pick-up.

YEAH! There will be a lot of former Demcratic Senators in 2005.

Reid, Conrad, Daschle, Edwards, Hollings, etc.

[republicanwizard]

HEY! We forgot Arkansas too! Huckabee will send Lincoln packing.

Okay. Let's take bets. How many Senate seats do we pick up?

[JohnnyZ]

Four net. 55 would be a nice round number. Asa Hutch. or Huck will give Lincoln a stiff test; I figure we may lose Illinois but no other incumbents, offset that loss by a retiree, and split the other close races, roughly. Hopefully Giuliani will decide to take out Schumer instead of waiting around for the governorship.

I like goals of 55 senators
235 Reps (leaves only 199 D's)
30 Guvnas
55 state legislative bodies (up from current 51 I think)
1 President
1 VP

[republicanwizard]

Again, with Daschle and Edwards probably leaving, we would pick up those two seats. I think we will easily defeat Hollings and Reid. Give us another two. Miller will retire. Give us another seat. So, I think we start out + 5 to start, not counting competitive Dem seats in North Dakota, California, Wisconsin, Arkansas, and Louisiana.

I think we can do better than 5. Reagan picked up 12 in 1980 with the same group of Senators. Bush can do even better.

I'm not sure about New York. I'd love to see Giuliani run, but I'd prefer to keep in on hand for the Governorship in 2006. My dream is to have Pataki run against Clinton in 2006. I think it would send the carpetbagger to the only place she can win safely-DC. Oh, I'm sorry. They don't elect Senators.

I also think we will pick up the Governorships in Missouri, North Carolina, and Indiana. With the additions of Kentucky and Mississippi, add around 5 to our Governorships.

HEHEHEHEHEHE! I hope the economy really picks up by next year. If it does, we'll be delirious on election night.

[nospinzone]

I'd like to hear more about North Dakota. Is it basically a copy of South Dakota, or more of a swing state? Think Dorgan could be toast?

[Jeb08]

Guys, guys, guys! Let's not get overconfident -- that's what happened after our victories in '94. I'll repeat my analysis of the most vulnerable seats in '04, although I posted all of this on the previous thread.

South Carolina - Hollings is toast; Reps. Joe Wilson or Jim DeMint will easily pick up the seat.

California - taking out Boxer is a priority; after sifting through several candidates, U.S. Treasurer Rosario Marin seems like the best candidate.

Wisconsin - don't underestimate Feingold, but his integrity is his greatest weakness, as he did not take any PAC money in '98; Tommy Thompson would have a good chance at taking him out. The next-best candidate is Rep. Paul Ryan. If neither of them runs, though, I think that the Dems keep this seat.

Washington - Patty Murray is a clone of Boxer, but only one person has a chance against her, and that's Rep. Jennifer Dunn. Dunn is 61 and now is her best chance at achieving higher office, if that's what she wants.

North Carolina - I feel good about our likely candidate, Rep. Richard Burr, against Edwards, who has alienated voters with his national ambitions and criticism of President Bush.

Florida - Bob Graham should be a top target after questioning Bush's legitimacy in 2000. It is time for popular Lt. Gov. Frank Brogan to move on to bigger and better things.

Arkansas - after Landrieu's victory, Blanche Lincoln's prospects are looking much brighter; both Huck and Hutch look like strong candidates, but they both have weaknesses; this seat "leans DEM" but is a possibility.

New York - as a Buffalo resident, I like many of the things Schumer has done for our state, but I despise his extreme position on abortion. Giuliani is the only man who can take him out, though.

South Dakota - a disappointing performance by Thune is discouraging, but Tim Johnson ran an excellent campaign. A Thune-Daschle or Janklow-Daschle race would be competitive, but I think that Daschle will win if he runs again.

North Dakota - I like Byron Dorgan, but I'd like him better if he weren't in the Senate; former Gov. Ed Schafer has a chance of defeating him, but this is seat still "leans DEM".

Georgia - if Zell Miller runs again, he wins. If he doesn't run again, the seat is leans GOP; my personal favorite is Rep. Jack Kingston, a rising star.

Louisiana - ditto for Georgia -- John Breaux is the state's most popular politician, but if he retires, the seat will be up for grabs. Will Suzie Terrell run again? If not, Reps. Billy Tauzin or David Vitter.

Indiana - I think that Evan Bayh is unbeatable, but I would like to see Dan Quayle, who will be just 57, make a comeback, even if Bayh runs again.

Nevada - Harry Reid is nothing if not a survivor. I think he will win unless he faces popular Gov. Kenny Guinn, whom CATO ranked as the most fiscally responsible governor.

It's early, but I estimate a 1-3 seat gain for the GOP. Tomorrow: Republican seats.

[JohnnyZ]

It's something of a SoDak twin (voted almost 2:1 for Bush, GOP controls state legislature about 2:1), but the D's have managed to get hold of the entire federal delegation (Sen's Dorgan, Conrad, Rep Pomeroy) and have had success with the 'team' concept. NoDak has a GOP governor, John Hoeven, who's up for reelection in 2004.

The big issues in NoDak are farming and the stagnant non-farming economy, which results in the young folks moving away for jobs. Former Gov. Ed Schafer is unofficially running against Byron Dorgan in 2004.

[republicanwizard]

THANKS FOR THAT POLL! That is not so bad considering that it is where Johnson was in a worse position than Schafer is in now.

That race is winnable. What is going on in North Dakota and South Dakota is also happening in Minnesota. You have a group over 65 which was raised in the era of Roosevelt, Truman, and Humphrey. They voted heavily Democrat, but their children, and especially their grandchildren vote heavily Republican. Within 10 years, those four Senate seats should be ours!

Perhaps within two years, we shall have half our work completed.

[nospinzone]

THANKS FOR THAT POLL! That is not so bad considering that it is where Johnson was in a worse position than Schafer is in now.

That race is winnable. What is going on in North Dakota and South Dakota is also happening in Minnesota. You have a group over 65 which was raised in the era of Roosevelt, Truman, and Humphrey. They voted heavily Democrat, but their children, and especially their grandchildren vote heavily Republican. Within 10 years, those four Senate seats should be ours!

Perhaps within two years, we shall have half our work completed.

That'd be great! I have noticed somewhat of a GOP drift over the years in that region. Minnesota has had its share of GOP senators recently (Grams, Boschwitz, Durenberger, now Coleman). Breaking through the Dems hold on North Dakota will be a biggie but I'm sure we can do it. We also need to get to work cracking the Dems hold on West Virgina and Louisiana.

[Jeb08]

One DEM race I forgot - Connecticut - Chris Dodd is favored to be re-elected, but if he retires to run for president, the seat will be up for grabs. State GOP Chair Chris DePino will likely face Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D) in that race; otherwise it is safe DEM.

[spintreebob]

Chicago Sun Times 12/12/02. Columnist Lynn Sweet is as left as her colleague Steve Neal. But she's in touch with reality, more fair and a better writer.

Full article at
http://www.suntimes.com/output/sweet/cst-edt-sweet12.html

No detente for Fitzgerald, LaHood After reading the news on Nov. 25 that Rep. Ray LaHood (R-Ill.) was looking around to find an opponent to run against him, Sen. Peter Fitzgerald (R-Ill.) phoned him a few days later to ask for a meeting.........

"I take a harder look at project requests,'' said Fitzgerald.

"He hopefully will work more with us,'' said LaHood.

Translation.
Fitz opposes increased spending for welfare/pork for the rich.
For LaHood, that is the raison d'etre

[unspun]

Looks like natural openings for the GOP in South Carolina, and depending on contingencies, Louisiana (if no Breaux) and Indiana (if Quayle). Attrition will be a big factor, eh?

spintreebob, as for Illinois, where I live, if Fitzgerald pays attention to his boss, the voters, this may become a good siren call for conservatives to rise up on our own two feet in Illinois (what a concept!) this time, hopefully, for good.

Also, let's hope that Trent Lott finds something better to do than ML in the next few days.

[JohnnyZ]

Article on Sen. Harry Reid in Nevada and his reelection chances. Pro-abortion Rep. Jay Gibbons is mentioned as a possible challenger (he does have a 94% pro-life rating -- guess he supports a lot of limits and such on abortion, but generally supports it.) It is also possible that Gov. Kenny Guinn could run (he's also mixed on abortion) but he and Sen. Ensign might switch seats in 2006.

[PeoplesRepublicOfWashington]

If Daschle runs again, then we need someone with enough heft to beat him...

I strongly object to the word 'heft' being used in any way to characterize Dasshole!

[republicanwizard]

Was there a reason you signed up on September 12, 2001?

No, but Janklow, with 16 years as Governor, is just as much an established figure as Puff Daschle.

[the irate magistrate]

Isn't Arlan Sphincter is a big RINO.

[republicanwizard]

NO.

How many times do I have to tell you. He is not a RINO, and he is one of our President's biggest supporters.

He never misses a trip with the President to Pennsylvania, and he is an icon in state politics.

Please, I know he sometimes disappoints you, but he is really a great guy with a conservative heart. When push comes to shove, he is always there.

[PeoplesRepublicOfWashington]

Was there a reason you signed up on September 12, 2001?

I'm not sure why you're interested in the why behind the when I signed up. But, I seem to recall initially signing up in 2000 (if not before), but not being able to login on this computer. As 9/12/02 was a big news day, I assume I re-signed up from this computer on that date. I now regularly access FR via this account from both the computers that I regularly use.

No, but Janklow, with 16 years as Governor, is just as much an established figure as Puff Daschle.

I just find it hard to believe that SoDaks would regard Puff as someone with heft. I'll admit he's established, but I see him as an established unAmerican. SoDaks should be ashamed to be responsible for his presence in the Senate.