Posted on 09/30/2004 10:32:18 PM PDT by Remember_Salamis
Still looking strong.
what caused the dip on 9-26 for Bush ?
what caused the dip on 9-26 for Bush ?
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Arbitragers probably for one thing. Iowa got much higher for Bush than Tradesport. So it had to come down.
If I remember correctly, some hijinx by the dems. Putting alot of money into it. Too much for the time period.
I do not know if that is correct or waht happened following that.
I suspect that people sold after the large gains made since the convention: If you bought Bush stock at $0.50 and sold at $0.74, that's a 48% profit margin that simple can't be passed up. On top of that, there may have been an urge to take a flyer on Kerry stock, trying to make a quick busk on a potential Bush blunder.
thanks to all for the answers....but it's going back up it
looks like for Bush
Is your title correct? It doesn't make sense the way it stands.
Yup. Right before the debate, Bush stock was dropping; it went bvack up on debate day, reversing the trend.
For the short version, the IEM, or Iowa Electronic Market, is an academic-run, real-money futures market. Among various issue classes traded, several revolve around political races. Participants buy or sell shares based on the victory of either of the two candidates. A share purchase at a given price will return $1.00 in the event of that cabdidate's victory, nothing in the event of that candidate's loss. The higher the share price, the lower the return, and thus the higher the probability of that particular result. There is a lot more to it, and there are variations that are traded. Click the link in the lead post to visit the IEM site and read up on it.
Here goes. This futures market will pay $1.00 to each correct bettor on the Bush-Kerry race. At this point, you only have to spend $.35 to win a buck on Kerry and you have to pony-up $.65 to get a buck if Bush wins. These markets have proven to be extremely accurate in the past, both during the campaigns and in picking the final winner in the closing days of the campaign.
E. Was more likeable
Kerry Bush Both/ equally Neither No
2004 Sep 30 41 48 9 1 1
F. Demonstrated he is tough enough for the job
Kerry Bush Both/ equally Neither No opinion
2004 Sep 30 37 54 8 1 *
2000 Redux? Pundits say Kerry but people say Bush?
Iowa Electronic Markets
http://news.google.com/news?q=Iowa+Electronic+Markets+&hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&safe=off&sa=N&tab=nn&oi=newsr
People bet on the outcome of the election. They poll by their dollars.
Bush is ahead.
also check tradesport.com
or momaw nadons weekly post.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1228090/posts
Another bet your money on the winner. These "polls" are like stock market bets. They are new so I don't know what the record is.
I've never understood what this is all about. I'm no dummy but, I'm lost on this. I take your word for it that it is good for our team.
Bush bounce to the top!
forgive my ignorance but how is this different than playing the numbers with the local bookie? A University is doing this????
Yeah, its an academic project - or a subset of an academic project, more accurately. It is perfectly legal, and there is no profit made by the university; it is no different than a commodities futures exchange on which participants trade for future contracts to buy or sell goods based on a trader's expectation of the difference between today's prices and the prevailing market price at contract expiration. ... if at the expiration of the contract period the market has moved in the direction expected by today's trader, the trader "wins" ... if not, the trader does not. "Events Futures" have been around for about a dozen years, tracking everything from the Fed Funds Rate to the course of economic expansion. All in all, their "accuracy", or error rate, has been significantly superior to that evidenced by traditional polling and forecasting methods, strikingly so as the scheduled end of the study period approaches. A couple years ago, there was talk of a government-sponsored futures market dealing with such things as threats to national security. The idiotarians shouted it down.
The sports books, of which there are many, have an enviable track record when it comes to picking political events, too. It would appear folks playing with their own real money tend to think about things a bit more than do folks who merely answer the phone or place checkmarks in survey question boxes. Thats not very surprising.
And yes, the trendings of the futures markets and of the sports books is very good for "our side" ... has been for quite a while. Most of the pollsters amd pundits were caught off guard by the results of the '02 mid-term elections, for instance. The books and the futures markets were not. The "Real Money Guessers" have been going "our way" since and before that, right along with the actual electoral results.
Professors usually don't break kneecaps when you don't pay up?
LOL , thanks
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