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Polls Put Bush on the Edge
LAT (read thru Yahoo) ^ | 10/18/2003 | Ronald Brownstein

Posted on 10/18/2004 5:08:29 PM PDT by unspun

Tribune Company, anti First Amendment, required excerpt.

(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Arizona; US: Florida; US: Iowa; US: Maine; US: Maryland; US: Michigan; US: Minnesota; US: Missouri; US: New Hampshire; US: New Jersey; US: New Mexico; US: North Carolina; US: Ohio; US: Oregon; US: Pennsylvania; US: Tennessee; US: Washington; US: West Virginia; US: Wisconsin
KEYWORDS: activismneeded; analysis; battlegroundstates; brownstein; gwb2004; kewl; napalminthemorning; polls
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This is a very informative analysis. If the undecided vote is comprised largely of women, it looks like Bush will need to have Presidential favorability and polling levels of 51%, at least.

Let's get him all we can!

Live near or in Ohio, Florida, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Maine, Tennessee, North Carolina, Missouri, etc?

Volunteers are being sought....

1 posted on 10/18/2004 5:08:30 PM PDT by unspun
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To: unspun

I manned phone banks for an Hour in NH
got some signs too
hope to God he carries NH, OH and FL


2 posted on 10/18/2004 5:10:04 PM PDT by DM1
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To: unspun

> Bush will need to have Presidential favorability
> and polling levels of 51%, at least.

WaPo reluctantly puts JA at 54%.

However, these sources can easily be lying and spinning.

As I reprised on other threads earlier:

There are any number of reasons for the Pravda Press to lie
about poll results. Here are a few:

1. Money: Retain viewer/reader interest and keep
ratings/subscriptions up (and ad revenue)

2. Money: Keep the campaigns buying ads.

3. Agenda: Keep the DNC base from staying home 02 Nov

4. Agenda: Because even if Kerry can't possibly win,
they want to prevent GOP supermajorities in congress

5. Agenda: Force the GOP to spend money where they
don't really need to

6. Agenda: Have fake numbers to cover DNC vote fraud


3 posted on 10/18/2004 5:13:38 PM PDT by Boundless (Was your voter registration sabotaged by ACORN? Don't find out Nov. 2. Vote early.)
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To: DM1

I knocked on doors in South Philly for six hours on Saturday. I had a blast !


4 posted on 10/18/2004 5:13:45 PM PDT by somerville
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To: somerville

i didnt have the nerve to do that
as it is i flubbed it a few times on the phone
still i feel as though i helped out not only by donating as much as i can but by being proactive
felt good
i cannot stand Kerry


5 posted on 10/18/2004 5:15:10 PM PDT by DM1
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To: All

Survey USA had Kerry down by 3 in North Carolina. Dream on. Bush will win NC by at least 7 points.


6 posted on 10/18/2004 5:15:36 PM PDT by Perdogg (Dubya - Right Man, Right Job, at the Right Time!)
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To: somerville

I applaud your efforts! I spent the weekend delivering and putting up Bush/Cheney signs.


7 posted on 10/18/2004 5:15:50 PM PDT by Coop (In memory of a true hero - Pat Tillman)
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To: unspun

I live in Michigan but would consider going down to Ohio. The Michigan GOP has turned the 72 Hour Plan into the 96 Hour plan though and the insiders have said this will come down to turnout here. I would love for Michigan to provide an upset victory. Kerry and Bush are still running ads. I don't think it's settled here yet.


8 posted on 10/18/2004 5:16:16 PM PDT by Dolphy (It's not a plan, it's an echo)
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To: Coop

I applaud your efforts too ! I'm gonna do that 72 hour thing for the Bush campaign on the last weekend.


9 posted on 10/18/2004 5:18:59 PM PDT by somerville
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To: Dolphy

If Michigan is anywhere near close...Bush will win Ohio, PA, Florida, Iowa, MN, MO, and possibly NJ.


10 posted on 10/18/2004 5:20:06 PM PDT by Illinois Rep
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To: DM1

Nobody is perfect at phone banking right away. Takes practise.

When we went door to door, we targeted mostly Republicans. They're a friendly bunch.

I applaud you for donating money !


11 posted on 10/18/2004 5:20:28 PM PDT by somerville
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To: Boundless

I think that the polsters' professional pride overrides their partisanship. They want to be right --especially just before November 2. Much, much money and reputation is at stake, there.


12 posted on 10/18/2004 5:21:47 PM PDT by unspun (RU working your precinct, churchmembers, etc. 4 good votes? | Not "Unspun w/ AnnaZ" but I appreciate)
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To: DM1

He will. He carried those three in 2000. This year he's going to take MN, IA, WI, PA and NM out of the red state column and turn them into blue states.

BUSH WINS HANDILY!!


13 posted on 10/18/2004 5:22:45 PM PDT by no dems (NICE GUYS FINISH LAST !!! GET RADICAL.)
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To: unspun
OOPS. I mean no excerpt.
14 posted on 10/18/2004 5:23:00 PM PDT by unspun (RU working your precinct, churchmembers, etc. 4 good votes? | Not "Unspun w/ AnnaZ" but I appreciate)
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To: DM1; somerville; All
Thanks for the work and the good report! Keep plugging away!
15 posted on 10/18/2004 5:25:08 PM PDT by unspun (RU working your precinct, churchmembers, etc. 4 good votes? | Not "Unspun w/ AnnaZ" but I appreciate)
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To: unspun

Did the article infer that many undecided voters are white social conservatives? If that's so,why wouldn't they have reason to think that they'll break for President Bush?


16 posted on 10/18/2004 5:29:15 PM PDT by mrsmel
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To: unspun

> I think that the polsters' professional pride overrides
> their partisanship. They want to be right --especially
> just before November 2. Much, much money and reputation
> is at stake, there.

On the other hand, if modern Democrats ever get majority
hold of the country, we will never have credible elections
again, and the job of pollsters will be much easier, because
they'll just report what they are instructed to report.

They might see that as an attractive state of affairs.


17 posted on 10/18/2004 5:32:09 PM PDT by Boundless (Was your voter registration sabotaged by ACORN? Don't find out Nov. 2. Vote early.)
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To: Boundless
Agenda: Force the GOP to spend money where they don't really need to

I don't think the Bush campaign is using the msm to determine where they spend their money. They pay a lot of money on specialized internal polling that will tell them where to spend money and campaign.

18 posted on 10/18/2004 5:37:17 PM PDT by IrishGOP (I don't like John Kerry, because John Kerry is going to get me killed.)
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To: mrsmel
Did the article infer that many undecided voters are white social conservatives? If that's so,why wouldn't they have reason to think that they'll break for President Bush?

That refers to what W's pollster, Matthew Dowd contended. Maybe it is spin. Maybe somehow, it reflects the work of Ralph Reed's registration drive --but a good poll should already be including newly registereds.

19 posted on 10/18/2004 5:50:29 PM PDT by unspun (RU working your precinct, churchmembers, etc. 4 good votes? | Not "Unspun w/ AnnaZ" but I appreciate)
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To: IrishGOP
They pay a lot of money on specialized internal polling that will tell them where to spend money and campaign.

I think you're spot on. Rove and company aren't as dumb as Kerry looks.

20 posted on 10/18/2004 6:11:09 PM PDT by DaBroasta (Either John Kerry is stupid or he wants terrorists to kill your children)
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