Posted on 10/31/2004 7:12:30 PM PST by Josh in PA
CAMEC PROJECTION - 2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
........Bush Kerry Nader Others Bush % Kerry % BUSH EV KERRY EVAL 1,081,230 671,538 14,250 14,250 60.7% 37.7% 9 AK 214,668 128,358 17,705 8,115 58.2% 34.8% 3 AZ 984,376 828,949 N/A 37,007 53.2% 44.8% 10 AR 604,025 521,502 10,315 10,315 52.7% 45.5% 6 CA 5,340,714 6,342,098 N/A 238,425 44.8% 53.2% 55 CO 1,098,165 975,669 45,130 30,087 51.1% 45.4% 9 CT 705,326 881,658 28,705 24,604 43.0% 53.8% 7 DE 178,960 219,633 5,084 3,050 44.0% 54.0% 3 DC 33,531 216,664 5,159 2,579 13.0% 84.0% 3 FL 3,508,207 3,202,259 54,391 33,994 51.6% 47.1% 27 GA 1,606,182 1,179,187 N/A 42,417 56.8% 41.7% 15 HI 247,879 244,345 N/A 12,621 49.1% 48.4% 4 ID 362,351 166,987 N/A 16,371 66.4% 30.6% 4 IL 2,323,137 2,833,602 N/A 52,088 44.6% 54.4% 21 IN 1,540,899 1,103,327 N/A 40,267 57.4% 41.1% 11 IA 840,978 807,271 20,224 16,853 49.9% 47.9% 7 KS 749,881 481,248 22,917 19,097 58.9% 37.8% 6 KY 1,086,136 742,069 16,738 14,879 58.4% 39.9% 8 LA 1,117,209 887,256 14,245 16,280 54.9% 43.6% 9 ME 364,288 393,337 19,628 7,851 46.4% 50.1% 1 3 MD 990,427 1,261,588 27,576 18,384 43.1% 54.9% 10 MA 1,136,961 1,780,242 N/A 74,800 38.0% 59.5% 12 MI 2,302,668 2,354,679 37,826 33,098 48.7% 49.8% 17 MN 1,343,268 1,323,920 55,279 41,459 48.6% 47.9% 10 MS 693,712 470,733 7,079 8,258 58.8% 39.9% 6 MO 1,394,513 1,270,676 N/A 26,921 51.8% 47.2% 11 MT 313,797 184,004 13,031 10,425 60.2% 35.3% 3 NE 524,723 278,425 12,356 8,237 63.7% 33.8% 5 NV 405,026 367,773 11,889 7,926 51.1% 46.4% 5 NH 302,590 308,228 9,397 6,265 48.3% 49.2% 4 NJ 1,584,417 1,751,378 44,296 27,259 46.5% 51.4% 15 NM 397,722 367,128 11,767 7,845 50.7% 46.8% 5 NY 3,072,429 4,198,490 111,860 74,574 41.2% 56.3% 31 NC 1,860,069 1,575,506 N/A 34,703 53.6% 45.4% 15 ND 211,063 119,914 6,931 8,664 60.9% 34.6% 3 OH 2,904,354 2,743,956 N/A 80,199 50.7% 47.9% 20 OK 869,148 512,002 N/A 13,951 62.3% 36.7% 7 OR 800,537 854,582 N/A 33,778 47.4% 50.6% 7 PA 2,636,463 2,679,419 N/A 53,696 49.1% 49.9% 21 RI 209,236 307,165 13,378 5,351 39.1% 57.4% 4 SC 958,439 660,879 13,152 11,508 58.3% 40.2% 8 SD 217,057 147,183 4,460 2,973 58.4% 39.6% 3 TN 1,327,809 1,004,126 16,539 14,176 56.2% 42.5% 11 TX 4,569,221 2,822,166 N/A 74,660 61.2% 37.8% 34 UT 614,659 255,056 18,025 13,519 68.2% 28.3% 5 VT 135,032 174,215 9,715 4,857 41.7% 53.8% 3 VA 1,693,700 1,481,988 N/A 32,078 52.8% 46.2% 13 WA 1,258,821 1,399,302 41,318 55,091 45.7% 50.8% 11 WV 394,177 342,568 6,732 4,488 52.7% 45.8% 5 WI 1,500,290 1,431,138 45,099 30,066 49.9% 47.6% 10 WY 129,249 67,079 3,068 5,113 63.2% 32.8% 3TOTAL 60,739,725 57,322,464 795k 1465k 50.5% 47.7% 311 227
50.48% 47.64% 0.66% 1.22%
His only loss from 2000 is New Hampshire.
He picks up New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Hawaii, as well as a 1 EV in Maine.
Close battleground states predictions:
Florida, Bush wins by 4.5%
Hawaii, Bush wins by 0.7%
Iowa, Bush wins by 2.0%
Maine, Kerry wins by 3.7%, however Bush wins 1 EV from the 2nd Congressional District.
Michigan, Kerry wins by 1.1%
Minnesota, Bush wins by 0.7%
Nevada, Bush wins by 4.7%
New Hampshire, Kerry wins by 0.9%
New Mexico, Bush wins by 3.9%
Ohio, Bush wins by 2.8%
Oregon, Kerry wins by 3.2%
Pennsylvania, Kerry wins by 0.8%
Wisconsin, Bush wins by 2.3% --
Other notables:
New Jersey: Kerry wins by 4.9%
Nationally: Bush wins, 50.48% to 47.64%
Projected turnout: Around 120 million.
The "Great turnout helps Democrats" myth will be debunked this year as the GOP steps up there GOTV campaign and Bush earns 10 million more voters on top of 2000 totals.
Okay, who does "CAMEC"? Is this your own computer projection?
Well that's good news but does this thing have a track record?
wowowow
great news!!
SOUNDS GOOD TO ME
Who is CAMEC?
Bump
This is interesting. Could you explain what this is? I've never heard of it. Any previous projections to compare to show accuracy?
This projection looks pretty good to me. I have the popular vote almost identical, although I am giving Bush 296 EC.
Today we were hit by a herd of polls. I don't care what they say. Turnout, turnout. GET YOUR SOULS TO THE POLLS!
Who is CAMEC? How credible? (Excuse the ignorance)
Don't know what CAMEC is, but it makes more sense than Zogby.
Do you have a source for all of this data and these projections. I'd like to believe it, I really would...
But I don't know about Minnesota. Today, I'm not so sure even about Wisconsin. Pres. Bush can win without them, but I'd like to see why your model puts them in the WIN category.
Sorry, this is not news. It is speculation. I hope it ends up being correct. I ask a question. Why have we never seen the question "Do you think Bush and the Republicans will steal the election?
Search CAMEC on FR for older projections from earlier this year and for more information.
CAMEC is a computer program I've written that combines some 30+ variables, from polls, registration, previous election results, various economic indicators(misery, gdp, few others), a few other variables as well.
That looks great! Is there a history to compare the accuracy to?
Bump to praise or jeer later.
I did a Google and he's either an African Mining outfit or a Chinese aerospace firm
CARAVAN and MARINE EQUIPMENT COMPANY
http://www.camec.com.au/
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