Posted on 11/01/2004 4:47:13 AM PST by Momaw Nadon
| State | % Chance of Bush Winning | Bush Electoral Votes | Kerry Electoral Votes |
| Alabama | 97.3 | 9 | 0 |
| Alaska | 98.5 | 3 | 0 |
| Arizona | 89.4 | 10 | 0 |
| Arkansas | 86.0 | 6 | 0 |
| California | 4.0 | 0 | 55 |
| Colorado | 74.5 | 9 | 0 |
| Connecticut | 3.2 | 0 | 7 |
| Delaware | 6.2 | 0 | 3 |
| District of Columbia | 0.7 | 0 | 3 |
| Florida | 58.3 | 27 | 0 |
| Georgia | 96.0 | 15 | 0 |
| Hawaii | 23.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Idaho | 99.0 | 4 | 0 |
| Illinois | 4.4 | 0 | 21 |
| Indiana | 97.5 | 11 | 0 |
| Iowa | 52.8 | 7 | 0 |
| Kansas | 97.4 | 6 | 0 |
| Kentucky | 97.1 | 8 | 0 |
| Louisiana | 97.5 | 9 | 0 |
| Maine | 7.5 | 0 | 4 |
| Maryland | 5.6 | 0 | 10 |
| Massachusetts | 1.7 | 0 | 12 |
| Michigan | 26.0 | 0 | 17 |
| Minnesota | 32.5 | 0 | 10 |
| Mississippi | 97.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Missouri | 84.9 | 11 | 0 |
| Montana | 97.5 | 3 | 0 |
| Nebraska | 96.5 | 5 | 0 |
| Nevada | 77.0 | 5 | 0 |
| New Hampshire | 33.6 | 0 | 4 |
| New Jersey | 11.8 | 0 | 15 |
| New Mexico | 61.0 | 5 | 0 |
| New York | 2.9 | 0 | 31 |
| North Carolina | 91.5 | 15 | 0 |
| North Dakota | 97.5 | 3 | 0 |
| Ohio | 60.0 | 20 | 0 |
| Oklahoma | 98.7 | 7 | 0 |
| Oregon | 12.3 | 0 | 7 |
| Pennsylvania | 26.8 | 0 | 21 |
| Rhode Island | 1.7 | 0 | 4 |
| South Carolina | 96.3 | 8 | 0 |
| South Dakota | 96.5 | 3 | 0 |
| Tennessee | 94.6 | 11 | 0 |
| Texas | 97.9 | 34 | 0 |
| Utah | 97.7 | 5 | 0 |
| Vermont | 2.6 | 0 | 3 |
| Virginia | 90.3 | 13 | 0 |
| Washington | 8.0 | 0 | 11 |
| West Virginia | 87.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 45.2 | 0 | 10 |
| Wyoming | 97.6 | 3 | 0 |
| Totals | 286 | 252 |
If Ohio goes to Kerry then Kerry wins. Period. That is a 40 EV swing and the election goes to the communists.
And Kerry's draft lie has energized college students to vote NO for Bush. We can thank the liberal bulwarks of colleges for all of this crap. And I'm a college administrator/faculty member and Bush supporter, but the college kids are clueless on how governemnt works. In fact most try to avoid taking American Government at our institution.
I live in NM & can tell you it is a toss up. Scarry!!!!! Denco
Thanks for the link. Now I'm as confused as I'll ever be. ;)
It was required when I got my degree, but even taking it doesn't mean they will learn how government works. Especially when what you have are professors who use the podium to express 'what's wrong with our government' instead of how it works. Lucky for me, I came out of a private school which required 1 year of government - learning it from it's establishment, and one year of economics in HS.
Just to comfort you a little bit, my cell-phone-only, college-age daughter will
1) Vote for President Bush
2) HOST the campus Republican returns-watching rally
3) Has already passed out 500 Bush stickers and 100 Rally Posters.
Cheer up
| Date | Prob. Bush Win | Mean EVs | Std. Dev. |
| 01/21 | 96.8% | 341.5 | 41.1 |
| 01/26 | 95.5% | 334.8 | 40.6 |
| 02/02 | 92.2% | 323.8 | 39.7 |
| 02/09 | 83.0% | 307.8 | 40.3 |
| 02/16 | 78.4% | 300.4 | 39.4 |
| 02/23 | 76.2% | 298.2 | 39.6 |
| 03/01 | 74.5% | 295.9 | 39.3 |
| 03/08 | 68.0% | 289.2 | 39.8 |
| 03/15 | 68.0% | 288.8 | 39.0 |
| 03/22 | 68.5% | 289.3 | 38.8 |
| 03/29 | 69.4% | 290.1 | 38.8 |
| 04/05 | 71.2% | 292.3 | 39.1 |
| 04/12 | 70.4% | 290.6 | 38.1 |
| 04/19 | 68.6% | 288.1 | 36.7 |
| 04/26 | 64.9% | 284.5 | 36.3 |
| 05/03 | 66.3% | 285.7 | 36.3 |
| 05/10 | 65.6% | 285.3 | 36.8 |
| 05/17 | 65.2% | 284.8 | 36.6 |
| 05/24 | 60.0% | 280.3 | 36.9 |
| 05/31 | 61.1% | 281.2 | 36.8 |
| 06/07 | 60.5% | 280.6 | 36.5 |
| 06/14 | 65.0% | 285.0 | 36.6 |
| 06/21 | 63.9% | 284.0 | 36.8 |
| 06/28 | 58.4% | 278.8 | 36.7 |
| 07/05 | 58.7% | 279.1 | 36.7 |
| 07/12 | 53.1% | 274.2 | 36.5 |
| 07/19 | 48.2% | 269.8 | 35.7 |
| 07/26 | 43.4% | 265.6 | 35.0 |
| 08/02 | 42.1% | 264.3 | 34.7 |
| 08/09 | 42.9% | 265.2 | 34.5 |
| 08/16 | 42.6% | 264.9 | 34.2 |
| 08/23 | 41.8% | 264.3 | 34.5 |
| 08/30 | 56.1% | 276.4 | 35.0 |
| 09/06 | 65.0% | 284.1 | 35.0 |
| 09/13 | 73.7% | 291.5 | 34.2 |
| 09/20 | 80.1% | 297.3 | 33.4 |
| 09/27 | 81.0% | 298.9 | 33.9 |
| 10/04 | 69.1% | 286.3 | 32.5 |
| 10/11 | 57.1% | 276.4 | 32.4 |
| 10/18 | 58.5% | 277.2 | 31.8 |
| 10/25 | 66.6% | 282.9 | 30.0 |
| 11/01 | 58.3% | 276.3 | 28.9 |
These people, normally only interested in sex and partying, have been energized by the frenzied Bush haters and will turn out in force,
Just like they turned out for Dean?
we need an update of tories fabulous chart so we can lose our breaths.
Torie, where are you. And do it the way you originally did with added big priint.
BTW do these things update constantly?
i know many college kids are too lazy to get out there and go to a poll and vote. however most college kids, like myself, send away for absentee ballots. its not too hard to do this and the majority of people on my campus and my friends campuses are voting this way.
Those of you who took responsibility and sent for absentee ballots will vote Republican. Those that didn't plan ahead would be voting Dem if they weren't so lazy. :>)
lets hope so!!!
bump
Thank you Galtoid for your kind words.
It's in there.
I set the Excel graph to show the date every 2 weeks.
This is a middle week.
The 1.7% chance in Massachusetts is for President Bush.
I still think Minnesota and Hawaii are going to President Bush.
College students may not be registered at the location of their college but of their family home. This means in a lot of cases long travel to go vote, on top of school/social schedule. If they are from out of state - fahgetaboutit! That's why their turnout is so low.
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