Iranian Alert - March 23, 2005 - Has Europe agreed to support real democracy in Iran?

Hadley On Iran Nukes

22 March 2005

The United States has dropped its objections to certain incentives the European Union is offering Iran to stop its uranium-enrichment program.

Enriched uranium can be used as fuel in nuclear power plants but can also be a key component of nuclear weapons. Many suspect that Iran's clerical regime is secretly trying to build nuclear weapons under the cover of a civilian energy program.

The European Union has been negotiating with Iran since December to turn a temporary suspension of uranium-enrichment and related activities by Iran into a permanent ban. Now the U.S. says it will drop its objection to Iran’s application to join the World Trade Organization and will consider, on a case-by-case basis, the licensing of spare parts for Iranian civilian aircraft. U.S. National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley explained the U.S. decision:

"What we have done is removed our objection to two elements of a package that the Europeans are putting together that they want to offer Iran in [the] negotiations the Europeans are conducting with Iran to try and get Iran to give up its nuclear weapons ambitions. We've talked to the Europeans about it. It's clear if those negotiations fail, then we are agreed with the Europeans that the next step is to take the matter to the U-N Security Council."

Mr. Hadley says the Europeans and the U.S. now agree on an agenda for Iran:

"Which is not only dealing with the nuclear issue, but also dealing with Iranian sponsorship for terror, obstruction of the Middle East peace process, and also failure to give freedom and democracy to their people."

White House National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley says that the United States believes that "the cause of freedom for the Iranian people has been advanced by the understandings we've reached with the Europeans."

Drivers and theories behind Iran's foreign policy

Iran Payvand News
March 23rd, 05

Durham, England, March 23, IRNA-A two-day conference on Iran's foreign policy since the Islamic revolution created much debate among academics assembled in Durham, England from around the world.
Gholamali Chegnizadeh from Alamah University in Tehran presented three pillars of strategic thinking behind Iran's foreign policy in both the pre-and post Khatami eras, which he believed were similar to the period before the 1979 Islamic revolution.

These, he purposed, included Iran's search for greatness based upon its natural role in the region and wider world, the search for recognition of its undefined right and a sense of victimization linked to a feeling of insecurity over the past 100 years.

Iran's belief in being different from its assortment of neighbouring countries was an important aspect in trying to understand the country's foreign policy, the Iranian academic argued.

During Tuesday's morning session on Iranian foreign policy in perspective, Ali Rezaei from the Iranian Embassy in London examined the different theoretical approaches, including geopolitical drivers.

But one of the most controversial papers was presented by Majid Taqawi senior lecturer on micro and applied economics at Newcastle University in northern England, which was critical of Iran's economic performance and record.

Taqawi argued that Iran's three five-year plans had failed to meet targets on combating inflation and unemployment through economic mismanagement that was causing slow development.

It was "negative real wages," he said that was the "basis of corruption." He also criticized the limitations of trade, saying that it was conducted by only a "few people." The senior lecturer suggested that the root of the problem was that previous Iranian governments had not been able to control the money supply and that banking management was below regional competitors.

But this was disputed by Iranian Ambassador to London, Mohammad Hossein Adeli, who as a previous governor of Iran's central bank defended the country's economic performance, citing successive record annual rises in GDP growth.

The two-day conference, which opened at Durham University in northern England on Monday, was attended by an array of mostly Iranian academics, including seven professors, based in Tehran and at British and American universities.

http://www.payvand.com/news/05/mar/1179.html

Wow, some astonishingly tough words from the Secretary of State today:

"...states like Syria or Iran – need now to be, by the international community, isolated and condemned."

I wonder, did she get approval from Bush to say that? Perhaps she did, but I wonder...

I mean, she called for the condemnation of the Iranian government. That's generally not what you call diplomatic language :-)

In any case, this is very significant, and I couldn't be more encouraged! Not only that, but it only confirms my regional analysis, which I will post tomorrow.

Notice that she also called out Syria, too.
It's all coming together now, just how I envisioned it would since Monday afternoon.

Such language might be inferred to mean that the American carrots have gone away. You don't ofter gifts to people after you condemn them (or, you are engaging in some odd deception).

Now we wait. We aren't really waiting for the Europeans or the UN. We are just wating for time to pass. Then the sledgehammer comes down.

(I'll explain what I mean tomorrow)

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Hadley On Iran Nukes

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