AP Skews Another Poll To Say GOP Will Lose Congress

Sweetness & Light ^ | July 14, 2006 | N/A

[Sam Hill]

Behold this breathtaking "news" from the DNC's Associated Press:

Poll: Americans want Democrats in power

By DONNA CASSATA, Associated Press Writer

Fri Jul 14

WASHINGTON - Republicans are in jeopardy of losing their grip on Congress in November. With less than four months to the midterm elections, the latest Associated Press-Ipsos poll found that Americans by an almost 3-to-1 margin hold the GOP-controlled Congress in low regard and profess a desire to see Democrats wrest control after a dozen years of Republican rule.

Further complicating the GOP outlook to turn things around is a solid percentage of liberals, moderates and even conservatives who say they'll vote Democratic. The party out of power also holds the edge among persuadable voters, a prospect that doesn't bode well for the Republicans...

The AP-Ipsos survey asked 789 registered voters if the election for the House were held today, would they vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate in their district. Democrats were favored 51 percent to 40 percent...

The AP article goes on to reiterate in several variations how impossible it will be for Republicans to hold onto their majority in Congress.

But, as regular readers of this site will recall, the French company Ipsos always over-samples Democrats.

And this case is no different:

That's a 12% advantage to the Democrats.

So a group of people comprised of 12% more Democrats than Republicans was asked who should run Congress. And they answered Democrats by a 11% advantage.

That actually sounds like a 1% win for the GOP.

As we have noted before, the Associated Press always polls more Democrats than Republicans at the 12% clip. The AP then uses their bogus results to drive the news.

Just check out their the Ipsos News Center's archives back to the eve of the November elections last year:

Recent Associated Press Polls

* June 9, 2006: AP/Ipsos Poll: U.S. Backing For Troops Steadfast Despite Growing Opposition To Iraq War
* June 6, 2006: AP/Ipsos Poll: Improved Attitudes Toward Immigrants In U.S., Europe; Europeans Remain More Skeptical Than Americans
* May 5, 2006: AP/Ipsos Poll: Poll Suggests Conservatives Uneasy With Bush, Raising GOP Fears About Election Day
* April 21, 2006: AP/Ipsos Poll: Shaky Confidence In Government's Ability To Deal With Bird Flu
* April 7, 2006: AP/Ipsos Poll: Bush, GOP Hitting New Lows In Public Opinion
* April 2, 2006: AP/Ipsos Poll: More Than Half Open To Allowing Illegal Immigrants To Enter Temporary Worker Program
* March 13, 2006: AP/Ipsos Poll: Amid Tumult Over Abortion, Americans Are Divided
* March 10, 2006: AP/Ipsos Poll: Voters Down on Bush, Congress, State of Nation As Republicans Fret
* February 22, 2006: AP/Ipsos Poll: Six Months After Katrina, Poll Finds Fading Confidence In Government
* February 10, 2006: AP/Ipsos Poll: Bush's Public Standing Mired Near Lowest Levels, Despite A Spike In Consumer Confidence
* January 16, 2006: AP/Ipsos Poll: Economic Concerns Recede At Start Of Year; Worries About Iraq, Politicians Have Grown
* January 7, 2006: AP/Ipsos Poll: Most Say U.S. Needs Warrant To Snoop On Americans' Calls Even When Terror Suspected
* January 6, 2006: AP/Ipsos Poll: Voters Seem More Ready To End GOP Control Of Congress
* December 8, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Most Americans Convinced Political Corruption Is Serious Problem, Affecting Many
* December 6, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Most Living In Eight Countries Allied With U.S. Want Nothing To Do With Secret Interrogation Of Suspected Terrorists
* November 11, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Once-High Hopes For Bush Administration Ethics Have Dropped Sharply In A Time Of War And Scandal
* November 4, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Early Public Support For Alito Lags Behind Roberts, Closer To Miers
* November 3, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Bush Approval At New Low Amid Worries About Iraq War, Aides In Legal Trouble
* October 7, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Bush's Approval Mired At Lowest levels Of Presidency; Optimism About Nation's Direction Sinks To New Depths
* October 6, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Americans Have lost Confidence That Billions For Hurricane Recovery Will Be Spent Wisely
* October 6, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Supreme Court Nominee Miers Has Less Public Support Than Roberts Had
* September 22, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Storm Changed Americans' Thinking On Race, Safety, Spending
* September 20, 2005: AP/Ipsos: Katrina Raises Voters' Doubts About Bush Priorities, Recovery Plans
* August 26, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: People Overwhelmingly Support The Right Of Critics To Openly Protest Iraq War
* August 5, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Americans' Approval Of Bush's Handling Of Iraq Reaches Low point; Fewer Than Half Say He's Honest
* July 21, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: More Than Half Of Americans, Especially Women, Want Supreme Court Nominee To State Position On Abortion
* July 15, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Most Think Transit Bombing Inevitable; Bush Ratings Remain In Doldrums
* July 14, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Almost Six In 10 Think A Terrorist Attack On U.S. Bus, Train Or Subway Is Inevitable
* June 24, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Majority Now Says War In Iraq Was A Mistake; Don't Favor Immediate Withdrawal
* June 24, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Most Oppose Return To Draft, Wouldn't Encourage Children To Enlist
* June 10, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Bush's Job Approval Dips To New Low
* May 6, 2005: AP/Ipsos CASH Index: Consumer Confidence Sinks Over The Past Month
* May 3, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Midwesterners View Economy As Nation's Top Problem; For Westerners, It's War
* April 21, 2005: AP/AOL Poll: More Than Half Of Americans Say They Expect High Energy Prices To Cause Financial Hardships
* April 11, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Popular Support For Bush’s Domestic Agenda Slipping
* March 3, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Most Oppose Bush On Social Security, But Think Their Own Retirement Is Secure
* February 26, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Americans Say Homelessness In U.S. Is A Serious Problem
* February 14, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Bush’s Job Approval Figures Weaken
* January 7, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Bush, Incoming Congress Faces Public Criticism
* December 13, 2004: AP/Ipsos Poll: Increased Uncertainty About Stable Future For Iraq
* December 13, 2004: AP/Ipsos Poll: Opinion Around the World, Eight-Country Poll On Bush's Re-Election
* November 29, 2004: AP/Ipsos Poll: Americans Say New Supreme Court Nominees Should Uphold Roe V. Wade
* November 9, 2004: AP/Ipsos Poll: Americans Say Iraq And Terrorism Should Be Top Priorities For Bush's Second Term
* November 2, 2004: Ipsos Presidential Poll 2004: What We Will Look For In The Exit Polls
* October 28, 2004: AP/Ipsos Presidential Poll 2004: New Voters, Bored Voters, Persuadable Voters, Decisive Voters
* October 27, 2004: AP/Ipsos Presidential Poll 2004: Six In Ten Expect No Clear Winner On November 3rd
* October 8, 2004: AP/Ipsos Presidential Poll 2004: Kerry Rebounds

Bias? What bias?

The Associated Press is just reporting what 12% more Democrats randomly selected people tell them.

It's scientific.

[Political Junkie Too]

Because these things take time, and the time may be coming.

-PJ

[Zakeet]

Actually, there are more problems with the Absurdly Pitiful push-poll that you noted in your excellent post. To begin with, the Pubbies, Democraps and Independents should be split about 1/3 each. Next, about 10-20 percent of the sample will typically refuse to provide a response or will have no opinion.

All in all, this poll smells worse than Teddy Kennedy's breath after a night with Willie in the Au Bar.

[mystery-ak]

WOW.....thanks for the pingeroo....

[Vinnie]

#6 the recent Senate vote on funding a wall on the Mexican border.
Zero dims voted for it.

[Sam Hill]

You don't believe a poll like this?

* June 6, 2006: AP/Ipsos Poll: Improved Attitudes Toward Immigrants In U.S., Europe; Europeans Remain More Skeptical Than Americans

And this was taken right at the height of the immigration demonstrations.

Yeah, I'm sure they convinced a lot of Americans to be more welcoming to illegal aliens.

[MikeHu]

The Associated Press-Ipsos is just another special interest group that should be posting their "results" on the Democratic Underground site only.

Unfortunately, most of the mainstream media read that site for their "inside" information -- reported as credible (anonymous) news sources they can't divulge.

[chesley]

But...but...but. Don't you know?! It's the elections that are rigged. Not the polls.

...snicker...

[CivilWarguy]

Only 5% of those polls identified themselves as independent or not sure? That sounds awfully low.

Another factor: most polls "norm" their results. In other words, what the pollsters report as the poll results may not be the raw totals, but rather the raw totals as "adjusted" by them to correspond with what they believe to be the American "norm". How this works is that a polling group (Gallup, Ipsos or whomever) decides in advance that America is, say, 40% GOP, and if 45% of their poll respondents say they're GOP, the pollers then adjust the raw totals to, in this case, reduce the GOP responses accordingly. In this instance, without the raw data underlying the poll, we cannot say for certain what if any "norming" has been done.

[Disambiguator]

This will just lead them to continued surprise

...which explains the expression on Pelosi's face all the time.

[Busywhiskers]

If the sample is 53% Dumbocrat and only 51% favors them, isn't it the D's who have the problem?

[Bahbah]

They have been trying to drive public opinion with these things for some time. Now they may be also trying to set up a basis for a neverending hue and cry about how they was robbed when they don't win elections because, after all, all of the polls said they should win. What a bunch of loons.

[DrDeb]

BTT!

[txrangerette]

Related to your #4:

Tax cuts vs. tax increases

Also:

Conyers wants to impeach the President. He would be chairman of House Judiciary.

Wrangel wants Reparations for slavery paid to Blacks of today, and tax increases out the wazoo. He would chair House Appropriations.

There's more, but you get the idea.

You could summarize this stuff in the form of "extreme Liberal mindset and record of those who would come to power in the House if Dems were to win." You could do the same for Reid and Leahy and Kennedy (you're talking about the Supreme Court here) etc. in the Senate.

[backhoe]

You don't believe a poll like this?

Let's just say "I view it with deep suspicion." ( hattip: Winnie ther Poo )

BTW, I neglected to mention that I liked your analysis, and always enjoy your researches.

[Republican Extremist]

Fox news poll internals here:
http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/FOX_229_release_web.pdf

They sampled 40% Dims and only 32% Republicans!

[Velveeta]

Shhhhhh!
It's a carefully crafted Rovian plot.

You see, if the dems think they're waaaaay ahead in the polls, they'll stay home on election day assuming other dems will get off their keisters and vote.

OTOH, Republicans will get out, vote and "steal" the election again. ;-)

[MikeA]

Good catch. And simple-minded idiots like Bill Handel on KFI here in LA were picking up on this on his radio show this morning to say "The GOP is doomed in November!" He's such an idiot. I can't wait to see the look on his dumb face come November, and the look on the other DemoDupes, when the GOP maintains control of both chambers with little or no loss.

[irish guard]

AP = A pee!

[FiddlePig]

Knowing their chances are slim, the libs publish poll after poll showing the DemWits winning... then when they lose, they scream "stolen election". That way they never have to admit they're just plain wrong. The liar ALWAYS lies to himself first!

[johnny7]

“Skewed... are you saying SKEWED?!”