Posted on 09/14/2006 6:40:50 PM PDT by okstate
Geography Surveyed: Missouri
Data Collected: 09/11/2006 - 09/13/2006
Release Date: 09/14/2006 11:30 AM ET
Sponsors: KCTV-TV Kansas City, KSDK-TV St. Louis
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Talent, McCaskill Still Tied in U.S. Senate Race: In an election for United States Senator from Missouri today, 9/14/06, Republican Senator Jim Talent and Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill remain tied, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSDK-TV St. Louis and KCTV-TV Kansas City. McCaskill gets 48% of the vote, up 1 point from an identical SurveyUSA poll 1 month ago. Talent gets 47%, also up 1 point. McCaskill's 1-point advantage is within the poll's 4.6 percentage point margin of sampling error, and is not statistically significant. The election is in 54 days, on 11/7/06. Republicans overwhelmingly vote for Talent, unchanged from last month. Democrats overwhelmingly vote for McCaskill, unchanged from last month. But Independents, who last month favored McCaskill by 3, this month favor Talent by 12. The contest will be decided among Missouri's Independents, who make up 22% of the electorate in SurveyUSA's turnout model. Last month's SurveyUSA poll showed a 20-point Gender Gap. Today's SurveyUSA poll shows a 31-point Gender Gap. Women are increasingly moving to McCaskill. Men are increasingly moving to Talent. McCaskill is increasing her support among the youngest and oldest voters. Talent is increasing his support among middle-aged voters. McCaskill leads 6:1 among black voters, trails by 5 among white voters. 80% of those who support Amendment 2, the Stem Cell Initiative, vote for McCaskill. 65% of those who oppose Amendment 2 vote for Talent. Talent leads in the Ozarks and in Central MO. McCaskill leads in the St. Louis area. In greater Kansas City, where last month McCaskill led by 16 points, today she leads by 1. Talent defeated Democrat Jean Carnahan by 1 point in 2002, 2 years after she had been named to fill the U.S. Senate seat of her posthumously elected husband Mel Carnahan. McCaskill, who has been Missouri State Auditor since 1998, ran for Missouri Governor in 2004 and lost to Republican Matt Blunt by 3 points. The U.S. Senate seat is one of the, if not perhaps the most, contested in the nation. A Democrat win may not guarantee the Democrats control of the U.S. Senate, but a Republican win would almost certainly ensure that the Democrats have no chance to capture the Senate in 2006.
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Broad Support for Stem Cell Initiative: In an election today, 9/14/06, Missouri voters approve Constitutional Amendment 2, the Stem Cell Initiative, by 2:1, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSDK-TV St. Louis and KCTV-TV Kansas City. 54 days to the 11/7/06 election, 24% of likely voters are not certain how or whether they will vote on the Amendment. Of those voters who are certain how they will vote, Democrats support the amendment 10:1. Republicans oppose it 3:2. SurveyUSA did not read the entire text of the Amendment to respondents. The exact language SurveyUSA read to respondents appears in the table below.
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Filtering: 900 Missouri adults were interviewed 9/11/06 - 9/13/06. Of them, 802 were registered to vote. Of them, 468 were judged to be "likely voters." Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.
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If the election for United States Senator were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Jim Talent? Democrat Claire McCaskill? Libertarian Frank Gilmour? Or some other candidate?
47% Talent (R)
48% McCaskill (D)
1% Gilmour (L)
0% Other
4% Undecided
MOE +/- 4.6%
468 Likely voters
Also on the ballot is Constitutional Amendment 2, the Stem Cell Initiative. In an election today, are you certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or, are you not certain how you will vote on Constitutional Amendment 2, the Stem Cell initiative?
52% Yes
24% No
24% Undecided
MOE +/- 4.6%
468 Likely Voters
Trendlines:
09/14 Survey USA ......... McCaskill up 1
09/13 Rasmussen ........... McCaskill up 3
09/03 Research 2000 ..... McCaskill up 1
08/27 Gallup .................. Talent up 6
08/15 Rasmussen ........... Talent up 2
08/14 Survey USA ......... McCaskill up 1
Ping. Survey USA in Missouri; McCaskill up one over Talent.
it has to be true........big city press says so.
zzz zzzzzzzzzz zzzzzzzzzz zzzzzzzzzzz
Now that you don't need an ID in Missouri to vote, the dems will win BIG.
I got a call the other night from a "pollster":
Them: Who do you plan to vote for, McCaskill, or Talent?
Me: Talent.
Them: How certain are you that you'll vote that way?
Me: Very.
Them: OK, thanks, good-bye.
It appears the "likely voters" were heavily Dems!
32% Republican and 40% Democrat.
Find that hard to beleive in Missouri.
I noticed that, but in a state like Missouri you get the majority of people registered as Democrats... even though many of those vote Republican.
Even in a really red state like Oklahoma, Democrats often outnumber Republicans in polls.
This has, and will probably continue to be, the closest race this cycle. Whitehouse-Chafee is a close second. Really fun to watch.
I will agree that Missouri is the closest race this cycle.
Interesting, thanks.
"Democrats often outnumber Republicans in polls."
Thought Missouri was a bit more Red than that.
Oh it is "red" nationally, but like many Southern and semi-Southern states, it votes for Democrats at the low levels of government (which is how people that would NEVER vote for a Republican for a county or state rep office would also NEVER vote for a Rat for President). At least that's how it is in my area of Oklahoma. And the people are overwhelmingly conservative
But she comes across great on the radio.
McCaskill won today by one vote.
The judge's decision to overturn the voter ID act.
I hope I'm wrong. But the Democrats now only need to keep polls open
long enough in St. Louis in order to find out how many extra votes
they need to turn out Talent.
The Republicans invited this sort of cr-p onto themselves when they didn't
fight for Bob Dornan when non-citizen voters handed his seat to Loretta Sanchez.
(I hope I'm wrong and get to eat a platter of crow the day after the election.
With plenty of BBQ sauce, if you please.)
Was this poll taken before the impact of McCaskill's charges about Katrina had sunk in?
The poll was taken 9-11 to 9-13. However, I bet the local media reported McCaskill's gaffe as an afterword unlike George Allen's slip.
This Senate race is looking like a repeat of 2002. The polls constantly shifted between the Carnahan and Talent.
What puzzles me about this poll, after reviewing the crosstabs, is that it has the St. Louis metro area as comprising 48% of the likely voters in Missouri. I did a google, and found that the St. Louis metro area in Missouri, which has a generous swath, including about 7 counties, was 2.1 million as of 2005, while the state was at 5.8 million, as of 2005. That represents 36% of the population of the state, not 48%. The St. Louis area was the only area where the Dem had a big margin, while she was losing the Ozarks big time, and the rest of rural Missouri substantially (I think 12%), and TIED in the Kansas City metro area (she was ahead by 1%). I can't imagine a Dem winning in Missouri if only tied in the Kansas City metro area. One must remember that the most GOP parts of the KC metro area are in Kansas! Something is wrong here.
Ping to my comment below, FWIW.
I imagine that turnout in the St. Louis and Kansas City areas are higher than in other parts of the state. In rural Missouri, politics isn't as important a part of their lives as in the urban areas. So I imagine that turnout there during off-year elections is lower.
Missouri Counties 2005 Franklin County 99,090 Jefferson County 213,669 Lincoln County 47,727 St. Charles County 329,940 St. Louis County 1,004,666 Warren County 28,764 Washington County 24,032 St. Louis City 352,572 Total 2,100,460
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