Posted on 09/25/2006 7:21:57 AM PDT by drangundsturm
Senate Summary: The GOP will lose 3.9 seats, leaving them with an expected value of 51.1 seats. (51 seats are required for majority, with VP breaking ties.) The Democrats have a 13.1% chance to take control.
House Summary: The GOP will lose 11.8 seats, leaving them with an expected value of 219.2 seats. (218 are required for majority.) The Democrats have a 32.0% chance to take control.
(Excerpt) Read more at owise.com ...
As far as numbers of seats, not much change this week with Owise still predicting GOP narrowly retaining control of both chambers.
It is interesting to note that Tradesports has been trending closer to the Owise prediction in the past couple of weeks, now showing the Dems with well under a 50% chance of taking the House. Owise came to this same conclusion a lot sooner than Tradesports did. Tradesports is also still showing a significantly higher chance of dems taking the senate than Owise does (18% vs 13%) and always has, even though no analyst I have heard recently gives the dems any real chance at the senate.
What do they make of a Lieberman win in CT? Do they count him as a democrat? many polling sites are doing that to make it appear that the democrats are doing better.
Since Lieberman will still caucus with the Dems if he wins, it makes sense to do it that way.
I don't think you can say they are independent events. I think the history of midterms pretty much shows that there are high correlations and a tendencey for things to run one way or the other in somewhat unpredictable ways.
Owise has separate predictions on independent vs. dem vs. repub. Owise is not lumping leiberman or other indy in with democrats as far as the percentage chance of control. Tradesports.com, however, requires that GOP maintain a "true" majority of 51 seats. So there are slight differences between what probabilities each one is measuring.
Welcome to the optimists club whomever you are. Better late than not at all. By the time we get to Election Day your numbers will have changed for the better. Take that to the bank.
The trends will continue. On November 8th, we will be counting up Republican gains, not losses.
Owise also awards titles to people who do well over long periods of time. Right now I'm a Political Analyst, level 9, the third highest ranked in the Politics category at Owise. I am in fact estimating slightly lower chances than owise is on change of control in both houses, but I do not believe there is enough evidence right now to say it's a slam dunk to retain the house. I do think current evidence indicates there is no reasonable chance the dems will take the senate, but you have to allow for unknown changes in the future, for example a health problem or an unforseen gaff could swing a race or two.
Still, that's partially speculation. I have NJ at 50% chance for a pickup right now in my Owise estimates. Keane won't be safe until he has a double digit lead, and it's too late for a switch to Cody.
LET'S ROLL>>>>>> GET OUT THE VOTE!
I would count him as a Dem, because he will be one when he wins.
I think Steele and Kean will win in MD and NJ, respectively. Not sure about DeRINO (er...DeWine) and Santorum.
The Iowa electronics Market also has the GOP surging to its highest levels since June to keep the House. They are now at 57% to hold and 35% to lose the House.
You are correct T-bone. Keep on the offensive, show no mercy.
The RATS in NJ truly have NO SHAME. The switch that they might pull again has got to eventually have voters in NJ start questioning RAT integrity.
LOL! Welcome to FR. My daughter loves Clifford.
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