Posted on 11/08/2006 2:08:36 AM PST by CheyennePress
Right now, Tester is up 4,032 votes. If Burns can finish at 55% (6% less than Bush in 2004) in Yellowstone County, he's going to win, assuming voter turnout was about the same. And really, that's all that matters. The others look like they can fluctuate.
I did some rough calculations and assumed that county total would be equal to what they had been to this point. I also subtracted 5% from the percentage Bush won in 2004.
So far, those counties unaccounted for are:
Lincoln (71% accounted for) 56% Burns 3,544 40% Tester 2,534
(~+300 more)
Meagher (0% accounted for) Bush took 72% of 972 in 2004
(~+300)
Cascade (61% accounted for) Tester 52% 10,894 Burns 46% 9,633
(-400)
Fergus (25% accounted for) Burns 61% 861 Tester 36% 504
(+1000)
Gallatin (22% accounted for) Burns 50% 9,937 Tester 48% 9,718
(+800)
Glacier (50% accounted for) Burns 53% 1,214 Tester 45% 1,030
(+200)
Lake (91% accounted for) Tester 49% 4,265 Burns 47% 4,176
(-10)
Lewis & Clark (98%) Tester 55% 14,453 Burns 43% 11,376
-60
Yellowstone (0% accounted for) Bush won with 61% of 66,000 votes
+7100
On second thought I did have a swingin' time on the High Line with a young babe many moons ago so maybe it is just that!
I like the fact that you make no sense to me... :)
haha! Okay, look at it again. My formatting didn't make it through.
I've posted the breakdowns by county as they've been released and the percentage of votes in for each county. Below each county, I've listed a projected gain for loss for Burns.
For instance, take Lincoln County. It's 71% accounted for. Listed are the vote tallies in so far for both Burns and Tester and the percentage each took fo the votes in that county.
Below that I've listed (+300), meaning Burns stands to gain 300 votes as the rest of the precincts report (assuming Burns or Tester keep winning at the present rate).
It's a rough calculation, but this is by no means a lost cause.
We could very well keep the Senate.
Well if these remaining 70K of votes go better, maybe some good news.
Sorry but we lost.
At least, we won in Tennessee.
Now we have 49 Senators plus Ben Nelson would continue the war in Iraq, from what I assume.
Especially since Chafee is out of the way.
Keep us informed please.
Cannot believe the number of outstanding votes in MT. I will be back in a couple of hours and hope they are counted and Burns is returned to D.C.
Thanks for the update!
Looks pretty good, but I think you're a bit too optimistic about Yellowstone.
Anything is possible considering that WA Gov race a while back.
In the Flathead we went 58% for Burns and 38% for Tester. We did our part.
Burns finished at 51.28% in 2000 (about 7.7% lower than Bush in 2000). That translated into 2700 more votes than the Dem.
http://www.co.yellowstone.mt.gov/elections/results/ares1100/
Bush did get about 2.7% more of the vote in 2004 (61.7%) than in 2000 (59%). And the voters totaled 8k higher in 2004 than in 2000.
http://www.co.yellowstone.mt.gov/elections/results/ARES1104/default.htm
So the +7,100 estimate you have for 2006 may be high, but even if it is cut in half and the other counties break close to what you have Burns should still come out on top...in a squeaker.
Note: The stats in my post above are for Yellowstone county only (per the links).
It's less than 3000 votes now...
2457 votes now, 90 percent in
Yep, now we're facing the impeach Bush/Jihad agenda
of the DBM/dems. Why don't Repubs learn their
lesson and run as strong conservatives?
The only agenda repubs had was, do not vote for the Dems.
For Goodness Sakes, NEW HAMPSHIRE has turned into
a BLUE state !!!!! I truly live now in the armpit of progressive hell!
Looks like some of Yellowstone's been counted per cnn, but not the MN sos. Where are you getting the counted data for Meagher county?
I meant Fergus
2052 votes, still 90 percent in
He's only winning Yellowstone 51-47 (1,000 votes) so far with 36 percent in.
If that's because he's only getting the bad parts, that's good. Otherwise...
The good news is per Cheyenne's estimates:
Cascade - Burns would finish down about 1,700 and with 100% Burns is only 150 down. +1600
Lincoln - finished where projected, up 1300.
Fergus - Burns doing better than projected )65% vs. 61%). +200
Bad News:
Gattatin - Burns slightly worse 49% vs. 50% -500
Glacier - Burns much worse 49% vs. 53% -1500
Yellowstone - Burns worse 51% vs. 55% -3500
So, Cheyenne projected about 9000 more votes for Burns. Now it looks on net about 5400 more for Burns and he was down about 4300.
Unfortunately it looks like there can be large swings in precincts within a county.
But still looking ok.
If you assume 1) CNN's data is right (too lazy for the SoS page), and 2) all counties are uniform; then Burns will squeak by with 500 or so votes by my calculations.. but the second assumption is a big one.
All eyes on Yellowstone.
Burns would pick up about 350 votes in Meagher, 500 in Fergus, 2000 in Yellowstone, 400 in Gallatin and lose 50 or so in Lake County.
That's a pickup of about 3200 net votes and he's currently about 200 behind. Too close for comfort (and I don't know how MT handles absentees)... but slightly encouraging.
I noticed that the Republican candidate for the House, Denny Rehberg, received about 70,000 more than his Dims opponent. In many counties, he also received more votes than Burns did. So, it's more about individual, I think, than about party.
Less than 2000 votes now!
1,743 votes, 91 percent in...
So are we going to pull this one out?
Links for Secretary or State site please.
OK, I'm looking at the SoS website, and it has Tester 168,121 while Burns 165,008. Were you looking at a different source?
I'm looking at CNN, they have higher vote totals.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/MT/S/01/index.html
I think the Pony Express is a little behind schedule there.
Ah, thank you. Yes, we still have hope...
Lieberman would also likely continue the war in Iraq.
I guess Tester is toast, Burns stays in D.C. - Burns is stronger in the rural counties.
please don't guess, comfort me and tell me you're 100% sure lol
Let's hope so. At least there's a reasonable chance. I'm sick over Virginia. If only George Allen had never uttered that word macaca, we wouldn't be sitting here at 7 AM the day after elections in deep depression. Republicans should know by now that the media will play gotcha, giving Dhimmis the room they need to win.
VA is lost. MT is saved. Senate 50:50.
Thanks for your assurance. I'll keep hope alive.
If those last two counties continue to vote as they have, the pubs will win. It will be close however. Talk about some close races overall.
Oops. Calculation error. Burns needs to do better in Gallatin.
Why can't those last counties report? I want some good news.
Do you know when Yellowstone is expected to be in?
Either way it will be within 2,000 votes. Recount is coming.
1507 votes ! STILL! And 4% need to be counted! That´s pretty close!!
Well, that was quick. This just in.
Tester 183,386
Burns 181,879
Burns now only 1,507 votes behind. 96 percent of precincts reporting.
94% of Yellowstone are in,
33% of Gallatin are in,
91% of Lake are in,
0% of Meagher in.
You beat me posting by seconds!
94% for Yellowstone already?
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