Montana Doesn't Look that Bad! (vanity)

Vanity Post | 11/08/06 | CheyennePress

[CheyennePress]

Right now, Tester is up 4,032 votes. If Burns can finish at 55% (6% less than Bush in 2004) in Yellowstone County, he's going to win, assuming voter turnout was about the same. And really, that's all that matters. The others look like they can fluctuate.

I did some rough calculations and assumed that county total would be equal to what they had been to this point. I also subtracted 5% from the percentage Bush won in 2004.

So far, those counties unaccounted for are:

Lincoln (71% accounted for) 56% Burns 3,544 40% Tester 2,534

(~+300 more)

Meagher (0% accounted for) Bush took 72% of 972 in 2004

(~+300)

Cascade (61% accounted for) Tester 52% 10,894 Burns 46% 9,633

(-400)

Fergus (25% accounted for) Burns 61% 861 Tester 36% 504

(+1000)

Gallatin (22% accounted for) Burns 50% 9,937 Tester 48% 9,718

(+800)

Glacier (50% accounted for) Burns 53% 1,214 Tester 45% 1,030

(+200)

Lake (91% accounted for) Tester 49% 4,265 Burns 47% 4,176

(-10)

Lewis & Clark (98%) Tester 55% 14,453 Burns 43% 11,376

-60

Yellowstone (0% accounted for) Bush won with 61% of 66,000 votes

+7100

[CheyennePress]

Prayers made for our country, fingers crossed for the Burns!

[zarf]

since when the hell did Montana becomea swing state!?

On second thought I did have a swingin' time on the High Line with a young babe many moons ago so maybe it is just that!

[kinoxi]

I like the fact that you make no sense to me... :)

[Congressman Billybob]

Very fine piece of work. I followed all of it. I hope you are right.

John / Billybob

[CheyennePress]

haha! Okay, look at it again. My formatting didn't make it through.

I've posted the breakdowns by county as they've been released and the percentage of votes in for each county. Below each county, I've listed a projected gain for loss for Burns.

For instance, take Lincoln County. It's 71% accounted for. Listed are the vote tallies in so far for both Burns and Tester and the percentage each took fo the votes in that county.

Below that I've listed (+300), meaning Burns stands to gain 300 votes as the rest of the precincts report (assuming Burns or Tester keep winning at the present rate).

It's a rough calculation, but this is by no means a lost cause.

We could very well keep the Senate.

[romanesq]

Well if these remaining 70K of votes go better, maybe some good news.

[MinorityRepublican]

It shouldn't had even been this close in Montana.

Sorry but we lost.

At least, we won in Tennessee.

Now we have 49 Senators plus Ben Nelson would continue the war in Iraq, from what I assume.

Especially since Chafee is out of the way.

[kinoxi]

Keep us informed please.

[PhiKapMom]

Cannot believe the number of outstanding votes in MT. I will be back in a couple of hours and hope they are counted and Burns is returned to D.C.

Thanks for the update!

[ivyleaguebrat]

Looks pretty good, but I think you're a bit too optimistic about Yellowstone.

[AZRepublican]

Anything is possible considering that WA Gov race a while back.

[claudiustg]

In the Flathead we went 58% for Burns and 38% for Tester. We did our part.

[frankjr]

Burns finished at 51.28% in 2000 (about 7.7% lower than Bush in 2000). That translated into 2700 more votes than the Dem.

http://www.co.yellowstone.mt.gov/elections/results/ares1100/

Bush did get about 2.7% more of the vote in 2004 (61.7%) than in 2000 (59%). And the voters totaled 8k higher in 2004 than in 2000.

http://www.co.yellowstone.mt.gov/elections/results/ARES1104/default.htm

So the +7,100 estimate you have for 2006 may be high, but even if it is cut in half and the other counties break close to what you have Burns should still come out on top...in a squeaker.

[frankjr]

Note: The stats in my post above are for Yellowstone county only (per the links).

[The Old Hoosier]

It's less than 3000 votes now...

[The Old Hoosier]

2457 votes now, 90 percent in

[oiler]

Montana became a swing state when all of the limousine liberals moved there!

[sirchtruth]

It shouldn't had even been this close in Montana.
Sorry but we lost.

Yep, now we're facing the impeach Bush/Jihad agenda
of the DBM/dems. Why don't Repubs learn their
lesson and run as strong conservatives?

The only agenda repubs had was, do not vote for the Dems.

For Goodness Sakes, NEW HAMPSHIRE has turned into
a BLUE state !!!!! I truly live now in the armpit of progressive hell!

[ivyleaguebrat]

Looks like some of Yellowstone's been counted per cnn, but not the MN sos. Where are you getting the counted data for Meagher county?

[ivyleaguebrat]

I meant Fergus