Posted on 01/25/2007 8:32:31 PM PST by NormsRevenge
WASHINGTON - Rudy Giuliani's star has hardly dimmed in the five years since terrorists attacked his city on Sept. 11, 2001, and he became a national hero _ the face of U.S. resolve at a time of tragedy.
The Republican dubbed "America's Mayor" hopes to ride that celebrity and his record at City Hall to the White House by emphasizing his leadership skills and embracing the strong-on-security, limited-government tenets of the GOP.
"If he can handle the scrutiny, and if events break his way, sure, he can win," said Fred Siegel, who wrote a Giuliani biography, "The Prince of the City."
Giuliani's quest to capture his party's presidential nomination won't be easy.
He's a moderate Republican from New York City, on the wrong side of social issues in the eyes of hard-core conservatives who are a crucial voting bloc in the primaries. His mayoral tenure was marked by criticism of an overzealous police force. He's linked to the city's scandal-plagued ex-police chief Bernard Kerik. His thicket of business interests could pose conflicts. He's been divorced twice.
"I sure have strengths and weaknesses," Giuliani said recently. "I think that sort of puts me in the same category as just about everybody else that's running. Are my strengths greater or my weaknesses worse? I don't know. You have to sort of examine that. That won't be the issue."
His challenge will be to remind voters of his take-charge attitude on Sept. 11 and his two-term mayoral reign, at the same time his main rivals _ Sen. John McCain (news, bio, voting record) of Arizona and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney _ no doubt will try to exploit his background and record. For now, both are trying to gauge how much of a threat he may be.
Giuliani, who formed a presidential exploratory committee last year, is betting that the Republican rank-and-file will look past his liabilities. His aides dismiss skeptics who say he has too many flaws to win over primary voters a year from now.
"I believe they'll look at the picture as a whole," said Tony Carbonetti, Giuliani's longtime political adviser. "This (New York) was an unmanageable city, and I think what people want today is a manager, someone to lead in difficult times and to lead in not-difficult times.
"We're going to continue to tell that story," he said.
Before Sept. 11, Giuliani was known as the hard-charging prosecutor-turned-politician who cleaned up Times Square, led the city out of fiscal despair and brought Republican rule back to the liberal mecca.
Giuliani, of course, made enemies in the process, but on Sept. 11 even his chronic critics were muted when he took charge amid the rubble of the World Trade Center's twin towers. To many, he became a picture of strength, a reminder of the resilience of the American spirit.
"He has a connection to that. He is unique. On the other hand you look at the politics and you say this is a problem," said Alex Vogel, a Republican strategist in Washington who is not affiliated with any presidential candidate.
"The question is: Can you win a Republican primary a different way? History keeps saying no. But history has never presented us with someone whose favorability numbers are as high as Rudy's."
Indeed, national polls have consistently shown him leading for the GOP nomination, and early surveys in key states show him ahead or competitive. He travels to one important state, New Hampshire, this weekend where he will give the keynote address at the state GOP's annual meeting.
For all the hype since 2001, Giuliani didn't start preparing for a presidential run in earnest until after November's elections. Thus, he has lagged behind McCain and Romney in courting fundraisers, setting up a national organization and hiring ground operatives in key states, although he has made progress on all fronts recently.
Giuliani's aides insist they're making strides toward filling out his campaign. They say he can raise the $80 million to $100 million necessary this year for a serious run. Name recognition, obviously, isn't an issue.
Neither, his supporters argue, is likability. They say he appeals to people across the political spectrum and in every region of the country, meaning he could expand the general election playing field. That, his backers say, makes him the Republican most likely to beat the presumptive Democratic front-runner, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York.
Perhaps.
But first he has to capture the GOP nomination _ and the big question is whether he can win over enough Republicans in states like Iowa and South Carolina, among the first nominating contests where voters are solid conservatives and could be turned off by his stance on social issues.
"Giuliani is going to have to convince people that he's more conservative than his record otherwise would suggest," said Peverill Squire, who teaches politics at the University of Iowa.
The former mayor's support for abortion rights, gay rights and gun control conflict with the hard-line positions of the GOP's right. His supporters say he's not as liberal on those issues as he's made out to be. Still, he's from New York _ and that alone rankles the party's conservative wing.
Despite that, Giuliani's backers contend _ and some Republican strategists agree _ that he could get support from fiscal conservatives because of his record of cutting taxes, curbing spending and promoting small government, particularly now when the base is smarting over the soaring federal deficit under Republicans.
And, with the country still at war, his link to Sept. 11 _ the brand of a strong leader _ could trump the base's concerns about his background and stand on social issues.
"Giuliani's national security credentials will allow him to span ideological divides in the Republican Party and win conservative votes," said Greg Strimple, a GOP strategist in New York who is neutral in the race.
Unknown is whether Giuliani can woo enough of those base Republican voters to win the nomination and, if not, whether he can make up the difference by attracting independents and Democrats.
"His opening could come if people really think that somebody like Hillary is running away with it, and if there's a perception that only Giuliani can beat her," said John Truscott, an unaffiliated Republican strategist in Michigan.
Another factor that could help Giuliani is how the primary calendar shakes out.
New Hampshire and Michigan hold early contests, and New Jersey, California, Illinois, Florida and other states viewed as more hospitable to a moderate may schedule their votes earlier in the year, perhaps lessening the importance of a strong showing for Giuliani in Iowa and South Carolina.
For all the obstacles, even folks with ties to Giuliani's opponents can't deny that the New Yorker has a shot.
Said Ken Khachigian of California, who served as a strategist for President Reagan and was with McCain in 2000: "I would never sell Giuliani short."
You don't agree with the 2nd Amendment. You're anti-gun. Sorry.
And by the way, do you even know what an "assault weapon" is?
I have to laugh....Third party my fanny. You are a hard bitten realist. You're gonna vote for some third party no name? I doubt it. That's how we got the first Clinton.
Know what I think?...I think you've painted yourself into a verbal ideological corner and are unwilling to admit you will vote for whoever the GOP nominates.
yep.... I surely do...I surely do...
Do me a favor, click on my screen name below this post, go to my "Comments From Fans" section of my profile page, read them, and then get back to me if you still think that I'm a hard-bitten realist. I must say that this is the first time I've been accused of that. Most people think that I'm a whacked-out libertarian screwball.
No...I don't believe in your particular interpretation of the 2nd Amendment, JMC. You read was you want to see and believe what you wish to believe regardless of the Constitution, the founders, or original intent.
...except for those things which you're not pro-liberty on.
FWIW: I own two AWs, a SOS, and am eyeing a MG. All legal (some requiring major hoops to jump thru) - all which you are "against".
Your brand of conservatism appears coercive and anti-liberty to me.
So you have no problem with banning semi-autos with detachable magazines? Why? How are they any more dangerous than some weapons that are not considered "assault weapons"?
Also, did you know that certain facets of the AWB actually made firing weapons LESS safe for smaller individuals.
Heh... he'd better stay out of my gun cabinet then as well. Poor thing would have a heart attack... And yes, for any Feebies listening in, all of my stuff is currently legal. ;-)
I have read the Federalist Papers. The founders intended for the public to have unrestricted access to any arm that might be carried by an infantry soldier of the given era. If you'd like to try and prove me wrong on this, go right ahead.
Let me put it another way. Hypothetically, if when the Texas primary comes around and I have a choice between a Ronald Reagan clone who clearly has no chance of winning, and Guiliani, Romney, and McCain, I will not vote for the Ronald Reagan clone, but for the one who I think has the best chance of beating McCain.
And that's because I think McCain would be the most destructive Republican President in US history.
Sometimes the person I vote for is really a vote to stop someone I fear more.
Is that why you are so excited to put a hate-crime loving, gun hating, zealous ex-prosecutor in charge of this nation's law enforcement machinery? Because you value liberty? What liberty is that? The liberty to agree with Rudy Giuliani?
Giuliani is a liberty-undermining social liberal joke without a punchline. As long as the shallow-minded are there to applaud, he'll keep bowing.
Well...I can see you are desirous of dragging me into one of those endless tautological technical debates filled with endless variant minutiae. No thanks. It just stinks of overcompensation. Understand?
I'LL pass... I'll just chat with bunny slippers and that lady from Idaho. Trout as I recall.. cutthroat...Damn...wanna do that.
Would you mind responding to this guy's reply #567? I'm literally almost to the point of bashing my head against my desk. Thank God Happy Hour is less than an hour away.
Yep....but Giuliani ain't as bad as Hillary. Which is exactly why you'll vote for him when the time comes to choose between them. Nuff said eh,pal?
That's a fair point, though I'd argue that McCain could not be as destructive as LBJ no matter how hard he tried. I'm just seeing a lot of people dissing on Hunter while not even mentioning McCain.
-I have read the Federalist Papers.-
Did you now?...We'll that is wonderful ,JMC. You must be proud as all get out aren't you?
Basic, God-given civil rights are not "minutiae". I also notice that you cannot provide me with evidence that any of the founding fathers wished to restrict access to firearms.
Well, yeah. Understanding the philosophies behind this unique form of government is something one should take pride in.
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