Posted on 01/25/2007 8:32:31 PM PST by NormsRevenge
WASHINGTON - Rudy Giuliani's star has hardly dimmed in the five years since terrorists attacked his city on Sept. 11, 2001, and he became a national hero _ the face of U.S. resolve at a time of tragedy.
The Republican dubbed "America's Mayor" hopes to ride that celebrity and his record at City Hall to the White House by emphasizing his leadership skills and embracing the strong-on-security, limited-government tenets of the GOP.
"If he can handle the scrutiny, and if events break his way, sure, he can win," said Fred Siegel, who wrote a Giuliani biography, "The Prince of the City."
Giuliani's quest to capture his party's presidential nomination won't be easy.
He's a moderate Republican from New York City, on the wrong side of social issues in the eyes of hard-core conservatives who are a crucial voting bloc in the primaries. His mayoral tenure was marked by criticism of an overzealous police force. He's linked to the city's scandal-plagued ex-police chief Bernard Kerik. His thicket of business interests could pose conflicts. He's been divorced twice.
"I sure have strengths and weaknesses," Giuliani said recently. "I think that sort of puts me in the same category as just about everybody else that's running. Are my strengths greater or my weaknesses worse? I don't know. You have to sort of examine that. That won't be the issue."
His challenge will be to remind voters of his take-charge attitude on Sept. 11 and his two-term mayoral reign, at the same time his main rivals _ Sen. John McCain (news, bio, voting record) of Arizona and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney _ no doubt will try to exploit his background and record. For now, both are trying to gauge how much of a threat he may be.
Giuliani, who formed a presidential exploratory committee last year, is betting that the Republican rank-and-file will look past his liabilities. His aides dismiss skeptics who say he has too many flaws to win over primary voters a year from now.
"I believe they'll look at the picture as a whole," said Tony Carbonetti, Giuliani's longtime political adviser. "This (New York) was an unmanageable city, and I think what people want today is a manager, someone to lead in difficult times and to lead in not-difficult times.
"We're going to continue to tell that story," he said.
Before Sept. 11, Giuliani was known as the hard-charging prosecutor-turned-politician who cleaned up Times Square, led the city out of fiscal despair and brought Republican rule back to the liberal mecca.
Giuliani, of course, made enemies in the process, but on Sept. 11 even his chronic critics were muted when he took charge amid the rubble of the World Trade Center's twin towers. To many, he became a picture of strength, a reminder of the resilience of the American spirit.
"He has a connection to that. He is unique. On the other hand you look at the politics and you say this is a problem," said Alex Vogel, a Republican strategist in Washington who is not affiliated with any presidential candidate.
"The question is: Can you win a Republican primary a different way? History keeps saying no. But history has never presented us with someone whose favorability numbers are as high as Rudy's."
Indeed, national polls have consistently shown him leading for the GOP nomination, and early surveys in key states show him ahead or competitive. He travels to one important state, New Hampshire, this weekend where he will give the keynote address at the state GOP's annual meeting.
For all the hype since 2001, Giuliani didn't start preparing for a presidential run in earnest until after November's elections. Thus, he has lagged behind McCain and Romney in courting fundraisers, setting up a national organization and hiring ground operatives in key states, although he has made progress on all fronts recently.
Giuliani's aides insist they're making strides toward filling out his campaign. They say he can raise the $80 million to $100 million necessary this year for a serious run. Name recognition, obviously, isn't an issue.
Neither, his supporters argue, is likability. They say he appeals to people across the political spectrum and in every region of the country, meaning he could expand the general election playing field. That, his backers say, makes him the Republican most likely to beat the presumptive Democratic front-runner, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York.
Perhaps.
But first he has to capture the GOP nomination _ and the big question is whether he can win over enough Republicans in states like Iowa and South Carolina, among the first nominating contests where voters are solid conservatives and could be turned off by his stance on social issues.
"Giuliani is going to have to convince people that he's more conservative than his record otherwise would suggest," said Peverill Squire, who teaches politics at the University of Iowa.
The former mayor's support for abortion rights, gay rights and gun control conflict with the hard-line positions of the GOP's right. His supporters say he's not as liberal on those issues as he's made out to be. Still, he's from New York _ and that alone rankles the party's conservative wing.
Despite that, Giuliani's backers contend _ and some Republican strategists agree _ that he could get support from fiscal conservatives because of his record of cutting taxes, curbing spending and promoting small government, particularly now when the base is smarting over the soaring federal deficit under Republicans.
And, with the country still at war, his link to Sept. 11 _ the brand of a strong leader _ could trump the base's concerns about his background and stand on social issues.
"Giuliani's national security credentials will allow him to span ideological divides in the Republican Party and win conservative votes," said Greg Strimple, a GOP strategist in New York who is neutral in the race.
Unknown is whether Giuliani can woo enough of those base Republican voters to win the nomination and, if not, whether he can make up the difference by attracting independents and Democrats.
"His opening could come if people really think that somebody like Hillary is running away with it, and if there's a perception that only Giuliani can beat her," said John Truscott, an unaffiliated Republican strategist in Michigan.
Another factor that could help Giuliani is how the primary calendar shakes out.
New Hampshire and Michigan hold early contests, and New Jersey, California, Illinois, Florida and other states viewed as more hospitable to a moderate may schedule their votes earlier in the year, perhaps lessening the importance of a strong showing for Giuliani in Iowa and South Carolina.
For all the obstacles, even folks with ties to Giuliani's opponents can't deny that the New Yorker has a shot.
Said Ken Khachigian of California, who served as a strategist for President Reagan and was with McCain in 2000: "I would never sell Giuliani short."
[T]he advantage of being armed, which the Americans possess over the people of almost every other nation, the existence of subordinate governments, to which the people are attached, and by which the militia officers are appointed, forms a barrier against the enterprises of ambition, more insurmountable than any which a simple government of any form can admit of. Notwithstanding the military establishments in the several kingdoms of Europe, which are carried as far as the public resources will bear, the governments are afraid to trust the people with arms. - James Madison
"Manfully maintain our good old principle of cherishing and fortifying the rights and authorities of the people in opposition to those who fear them, who wish to take all power from them and to transfer all to Washington." --Thomas Jefferson to Nathaniel Macon, 1826. FE 10:378
"What country can preserve its liberties if its rulers are not warned from time to time that their people preserve the spirit of resistance? Let them take arms. The remedy is to set them right as to facts, pardon and pacify them." --Thomas Jefferson to William Stephens Smith, 1787. ME 6:373, Papers 12:356
"A free people [claim] their rights as derived from the laws of nature, and not as the gift of their chief magistrate." --Thomas Jefferson: Rights of British America, 1774. ME 1:209, Papers 1:134
"It astonishes me to find... [that so many] of our countrymen... should be contented to live under a system which leaves to their governors the power of taking from them the trial by jury in civil cases, freedom of religion, freedom of the press, freedom of commerce, the habeas corpus laws, and of yoking them with a standing army. This is a degeneracy in the principles of liberty... which I [would not have expected for at least] four centuries." --Thomas Jefferson to William Stephens Smith, 1788. (*) FE 5:3
Need more? I've got them. Of course, if you had actually READ anything the Founders themselves had written... I wouldn't have a need to point these out to you. No... I suspect instead that you have read what OTHERS have said the Founders meant and either approved of the changes they made or are ignorant.
Ignorance is curable. But if you are a hoplophobe, there is no hope for you. No cure for your dementia.
In other words, you know you are FOS, can't produce the requisite quotes from the Founders saying the States may infringe our Natural Rights, and would rather slink away with your tail between your legs rather than admit your lie.
Figures.
No JMC....You really wanna talk about sear pins,7.62 x 39, magazine loads, bullets grains, muzzle velocity, sweat and gun oil and yaddyho-ho dontcha?
Like I said...Know anything about trout?...cuttthroat?...Idaho? I really want to learn about that.
He's read a Bellesiles book or two, seen a Michael Moore film, maybe some 9th Circuit court cases, and thinks he's a Constitutional scholar. What a hoot...
Ever heard of paraphrasing?...editing?
Come on... it's easy...
Yeah, things that the government HAS NO RIGHT TO RESTRICT under the 2nd Amendment. I'm still waiting for evidence of your claim that the founders would advocate enacting restrictions on such things.
There is a whole lot of these folks on the Rudy threads. I ask them over and over and over again: "If your guy wins the nomination I will vote for him. If Rudy is the nominee will you vote for him?"
They either do not answer or say stay home or third party, how nice.
Paraphrasing is what the gun-grabber do with the Constitution. DC was kind enough to provide you with quotes in an attemt to educate you. The least you could do is take 60 seconds to give them an honest read.
Thank You!
It's pretty much a given that McCain has no support here at FR. We had some McCainiacs here in 1999 and 2000, but they've all left the forum, best I can tell.
Have you seen a thread or even a post supporting his candidacy here in the past year? Honestly? I think McCain is not a controversial issue here anymore.
I think Hunter is a great conservative who is more conservative than the Big Three who are the frontrunners. Like I say, I strongly disagree with him on one policy issue, but if we're lucky enough to elect a Republican at all next year, it's going to be one that I held my nose to vote for. But I'm used to that.
I doubt Hunter will be on the ballot when the Texas primary comes around, although I certainly could be wrong with that prediction. I have well over a year to revise and extend my remarks and opinions before casting my vote.
The all seeing all knowing SPIFF now oversees who shall or shall not be a conservative. Oh great one save us, save us!
Ok. Here goes: "RKBA is a natural Right. Nobody messes with it at any level of government. Period. If someone does, work through the legislature and the courts to fix it. If that doesn't work, you individuals retain the Right to shoot them and rebuild a new government that won't do it again."
How's that? Dumbed down enough for everyone?
No...I just generally avoid folks who choose the name "dead corpse" as a nick name. It kinda says something about the personality of the chooser , ya know? For the same reason I tend to not interact with people who select the name spleen muncher or chick slicer. Get my drift?
Yes. I see I had you marked perfectly. No, that isn't a compliment.
Bye kiddo....drive safe.
I think that is s good reason to ignore them then and not count on them at all. If they come to their senses - fine - if not - we have already planned for them to play martyr and punisher.
SPIFF, SPIFF, you lost another one, keep posting baby!Ouch!
"I just wondered - because I've read other posts (not just you) from people who have put *their* values over everything else. In other words - they are making the 2008 race about them and their values and if the country does not accept them, their beliefs and their values - then they say, essentially, "to hell with the country".
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