Posted on 10/19/2007 10:42:17 PM PDT by Nat Turner
At this point we dont know WHO the republican base will support. We know McCain is dead in the water as is Edwards. Hillary has NOT been really tested by conservative media, who will by the way not give Hillary a free pass. Also she is the most POLARIZING figure the Dems have at this point.
Also since the surge is working Iraq will probably not be the main issue. That cuts Hillary two ways: One- all the antiwar crowd wont forget her support of the war early in the game and will critize her triangulation on the issue. Two- the pro war faction will not support another vietnam defeat and retreat. I see this more like 1972 than 1968. The dems are setting themselves up for another McGovernization.
That leaves the economy and illegal immigration as the primary issue motivating voters. If the economy does not meltdown ( ie the media does not convienently create the perception of recession), the traditional message of class warfare and "worst economy since Hoover wont pass the smell test. The illegal issue also is a double edged sword that cuts both parties both ways. I dont think amnesty will help the Dems anymore than xenophobia will hurt the Reps.
Hillary will probably win the nomination with Obama as Veep against Rudy and Thompson. When you match those pairs up nationally ask yourself will the key voting bloc in America (white males) choose a female and an African American? This is not a racist question when you consider the track record of liberal northeastern candidates running for the White House. (The last liberal from the northeast elected to the WH was JFK and he would not be a liberal by todays standards)
Whomever the Reps nominate will face Hillary and whomever they pick as Veep. That alone will assure high turnout as they saw what happened in 2006 when you sit at home on election night. Remember, in historical terms their 06 victory was FAR smaller than what happened to Reagan, Nixon and other two term presidents in their 2nd term mid term elections. The other wild cards in this deck are guys like Rush Limbaugh and Karl Rove et al. Soros, Media Matters, Moveon.org and all the other lefties could not create a veto proof congressional majority and now they cant fly under the radar. The blogosphere and the pajamahadin more than counterweigh all the leftist 503 groups so my advise is check the fund raising after Super Tuesday. If the republican base is happy you will see a tidal wave of money like a tsunami that will mobilize their grassroots. Their grassroots WILL turn anytide the left can muster (the revolution wont be televised but will be on a web site near you).
Also we must consider the 4th branch of government the media. They are pronouncing victory for Hillary and I'm sure will give her checkered past history a pass. That will lead to overconfidence to the Dems and panic on the right. I doubt that the big three and the NY times will be able to sway opinion the dems way effectively as they have historically have done. FOXNews is killing CNN and Fox does not even have the same reach as CNN. It will make for a very interesting election.
The other wild cards will be how blacks perceive the treatment of Obama and on the other side the Christian Right on whomever the Reps nominate. If blacks think Obama did not get fair treatment (ie he is NOT the Veep or gets shafted in some smoke-filled backroom deal) there will be hell to pay on election day. Blacks see how the Dem party treats black candidates differently in single race or local elections than in national ones. They wont be happy with him just giving a keynote speech at the convention, giving Hillary a congratulatory handshake on the dais then happily marching off into the sunset. Note this... if Blacks dont show up at the polls in overwhelming numbers and cast overwhelming votes ( ie 90% of eligible black votes casting 90% for the donkey) its over but for the crying. We have already seen what happens when the CR stays home in 2006 (and 1992, 1996 also)
Most conservative don't have fond memories of the Clinton years and while many may be dissatisfied with W they would NEVER acquiesce with a 3rd Clinton term. Also this political environment is far more polarized and vitriolic than even 2000 and 2004. How will this play out? Simple, ask yourself have you seen any Million Men March against the war. If the war was such a hot button issue and if the dems claimed that they were going to end the war, how come they have not pulled the funding and ended it. The reality is that whoever gets elected in 2008 WILL NOT BRING THE TROOPS HOME anytime soon. Add to that a nuclear armed Iran making war noises and you will get the security moms voting conservative.
I know that the dems are hard campaigners and that Hillary has the tightest ship in the leftwing fleet, but that just means she is the front runner and could fall prey to hubris, a mis-step or even another bimbo eruption by her hubby. Don't think she has the female or even the Black vote locked up. We have seen how the DEMS eat their young during hard fought campaigns, after all Edwards, Richardson et al aren't folding up their tents and going home.
So ask me after Easter 2008 and I will have a better answer for you.
More to the point, Obama brings very few votes that Hilary wouldn’t already have. (Her team will already have major A-A precincts voting up to or 100%.) She needs to reach out to the middle, not the base, for the general election.
Deal?
Hillary ran a million votes behind AL Gore in NYC and Buffalo.
The brothers, and especially the sisters, can't stand icy white bitches.
If she needs Obama, she'll pick him.
I wouldn't want to be on his SS detail after election day, but she will do what she must to win.
“Overwhelmingly, the people don’t want the shrew, but clintons cheat. We ALLOW them to cheat. I am, therefore, afraid for our children, our freedoms and our nation.”
It’s my sense that if she is elected, that she will be the LAST constitutionally elected president.
She and Bill plan on ruling the world. There plenty of useful idiots willing to put them in charge.
They can’t kill all of us IF WE ARE WILLING TO STOP THEM.
“They cant kill all of us IF WE ARE WILLING TO STOP THEM.”
Interesting that you use the term Kill.
It always gives me pause that part of the evil agenda from the forces of darkness always includes gun control.
From the Bible:
REV 13:7 And it was given unto him to make war with the saints, and to overcome them: and power was given him over all kindreds, and tongues, and nations.
Doesn’t look like they’ll be stoppable. The US & UN military will be loyal to their chain of command, even if it means ferreting out and killing those with excessive regard for the Constitution of the United States. It will probably make sense for them to use UN troops here and send US troops elsewhere.
All this wild speculation is credible because there seems to be no moral restraint on Bill and Hillary whatsoever. Bill is the most admired person on the planet. He is a shew in for world dictator and I’m sure he knows it.
BTW, if you read the end of the book, God wins without firing a shot.
“Well if Obama wont take the second slot I fully expect that McCain will.”
LOL
Cruel but true.
“Question: “Is Hillary Beatable?”
Response: No.”
Another question:
Once she is elected, what will her agenda be and will anything stop her from advancing that agenda?
Not that she wouldn't carry Illinois anyhow, with it's four times the electoral wollop of New Mexico, but Richardson's coming from an insignificant state will be considered before he's chosen.
Do they have a Hillary double somewhere who looks just like her but is likable?
On the other hand, snubbing Obama might wake more than a few of those A-As up to the fact that the 'Rats take them for granted.
We would not be in this situation if Bush had gotten all the clowns in the Clinton administration convicted of crimes, imprisoned, and discredited as he ought to have upon taking office.
I wish I could share your confidence...right now, thought, Clinton is polling significantly higher than Republicans in VA, NM, IA, and FL...tough to make up those states...
Again, all based on my interpretations of past events: I wonder who told the Horsefaced One to bring up Mary Chaney's uhhh 'proclivities' during a national debate?
We could have been stuck with him for four years hadn't he stuck his foot in it. Remember the Horsefaced One always tried to project this 'aloof-above the common fray intellectual' image, then to drop into a knife fitting pit? And to have the Silky Pony follow on? Sure they still got 90% of the pervert crowd votes, but it was down hill from there.
And having working in a county where "Mena" type activities were common knowledge - even the kid fueling up my little Beech Skipper knew who the players were....
For verbal shorthand, I just call the events which lead up to Clinton(s) being elected, the Mena Protocols.
And what was Bubba's first biggie? NAFTA.
He in effect told the unions to pound sand, something which made him desirable in the globalist world. And we see all sparks-flames and smoke about the Chinese Connection, but nothing done ... even after all these years. Sandy Burgler skating on screwing up a major investigation?
Again, I'm predicting something involving use of the US Marshals or DEA which will get a bunch of innocent people killed and will alienate "R" voters from the polls.
This is more than a game to the Beltway Crowd, they play for keeps :^(
Richardson’s selection has little to do with electoral strength, it’s about who he is. The Clintonistas can’t trust anyone that isn’t an insider. They also can exploit the fact he is (part) Hispanic, too.
I understand.
I used the word, “kill,” on purpose.That evil machine wouldn’t think twice.
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