Posted on 01/12/2008 8:15:09 AM PST by GOPGuide
The seven day campaign leading up to Michigans Republican Presidential Primary began with a toss-up between Mitt Romney and John McCain.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey found Romney with 26% of the vote, McCain with 25%, and Mike Huckabee with 17%. The survey was conducted on Wednesday night, immediately following the New Hampshire Primary.
Those results reflect a substantial turnaround since the last Rasmussen Reports survey in the state. In early December, it was a three-way race with Huckabee, Romney, and Rudy Giuliani all within two points of each other. At that time, McCain was a distant fifth, attracting just 8% of the vote.
The current election poll finds that Giuliani has slipped from 19% support in early December to 6% today. In addition to the frontrunners, he now trails Fred Thompson who is the top choice for 9% of voters and Ron Paul who attracts 8%.
As was the case in both Iowa and New Hampshire, the race in Michigan is likely to be quite fluid during the final week of campaigning. Just 57% of Likely Republican Primary Voters are certain they will end up voting for their current favorite. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of McCain voters are certain they will vote for him along with 55% of Romney supporters. As for those who support Huckabee, just 41% are that certain.
McCain and Huckabee are leading in the South Carolina Primary which will be held just four days after Michigan votes.
In Michigan, Romney is viewed favorably by 71% of Likely Primary Voters. Sixty-nine percent (69%) have a favorable opinion of McCain. For Giuilani 64% offer a positive assessment, Huckabee gets good reviews from 59%, Thompson from 57%, and Paul from 33%.
McCain is seen as the most electable candidate. Seventy-two percent (72%) say he would be somewhat or very likely to win the White House if nominated. That figure includes 30% who consider McCain Very Likely to win if nominated.
Romney is close on the electability front67% think he would be at least somewhat likely to win including 25% who rate his prospects as Very Likely.
Electability used to be the strongest suit for Giuliani among Republican Primary voters. However, in Michigan, just 49% think he would be even Somewhat Likely to win if nominated.
Forty-six percent (46%) say Huckabee would be at least somewhat likely to win in November, 33% say the same about Thompson, and 17% believe Paul would have a chance.
Following a pattern seen in other places, Romney has a slight lead among Republican voters while McCain leads among Independents and others. If Independent voters make up a larger share of the Primary voters, that will help McCain and hurt Romneys prospects. The current survey estimates that 76% of the voters will be Republicans.
I think that's smart, regardless of your real preference. Right now the main thing I want is to stop the McDole coronation. If Michigan can slow him down, we here in the south will finish him off.
Me too!
I just can’t understand why any party tolerates open primaries.
I agree with you. Romney hasn’t wavered in any of the debates in his stance concerning illegal immigration, government spending, the need for lower taxes, and the necessity to keep up the fight against what he always calls “global jihad.” I like that he doesn’t use Bush’s meaningless “global terrorism” line.
The tough anti-illegal immigration sheriff from Arizona who is a Romney backer points out that Romney was the first governor to have his state police trained and certified by ICE to go after illegal aliens. Romney also insisted that there be English immersion, not bilingual education, for students in Massachusetts who can’t speak English. I noticed that Massachusetts ranks in the top five states in educational achievement in a recent survey. And Romney is an executive who’s had to meet payrolls and has created jobs and turned around failing companies. He’s also familiar with international business and the growing economic competition from China and India. These are all unique qualifications that no other Republican or Democrat can match, certainly not McCain or Huckabee.
...vote for Romney.”
Please do it to stop McCain. I live in Pennsylvania. In this dumb state, the meaningless primary is sometime in April. I never have a chance to vote to determine the Republican candidate. Use your vote strategically and urge every Republican you know there to do the same. Otherwise it’s going to be a McCain-Huckabee ticket. Abominable!
saw that thanks,
I don’t think McCain has any “no way” credibility.
It is very plausable he would do such a power grab.
Every day that passes I am more and more convinced that this race needs to be Thompson/Romney. Yes some say that Romeny is too liberal, but it is much better to find out as Vice President than President and then after 8 years, Romney would either show us or not show us that he is ready for the big chair. With every since part of my brain, I believe this is the right choice!!! If we ignore the obvious, we are going to be very disappointed on who we may end up with!!!
I think that a lot of Democrats will be voting for McCain not necessarily to create mischief. What conservatives have labeled as betrayal, liberals and independents see as principled stands on McCain's part. Several of the Democrats will be voting for McCain out of respect. This would be similar to me, if the Republican primary was meaningless, voting for a Lieberman or a Moynihan in the Democrat primaries because I respect the man (not necessarily their views).
In all likelihood, McCain is emerging as the strongest general election candidate which the polling has shown for a while. It would be potentially suicidal for the Democrats to promote the McCain candidancy. His appeal to independents in the general election could hard to overcome.
I disagree. I think the Democrats will vote for Huckabee since he has the glass jaw in a general election.
It doesn’t make sense for them to vote for McCain and Romney - both will kill the Democratic nominee (albeit, for different reasons).
To be candid, Democrats really do care about the letter beside the name, regardless of political affiliation. A McCain presidency won’t see a lot of liberals gaining power over the nation. There will be a lot of bipartisan dealings to be sure and a lot of moderate appointments; but as for leftists and liberals? Hardly.
Hopefully Romney can win in MI and stop the McCain “momentum” cold. Then Fred can finish the job in SC, and the race will be changed for good. I am doing all I can to convince Rudy funders to drop their commitments and give their cash to Fred instead, but they are saying he’s got to win SC. Can we do it?
It's hard to imagine that 17% of Michigan's likely primary voters actually believe Paul is electable. What a world.
There’s a liberal group in Michigan called “Vote for the Worst” that is trying to get votes for Romney. I don’t know how many votes this would represent.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/1/10/2713/87225/55/434206
This is interesting too:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1952099/posts
I was shocked to see Minnesota's Governor Pawlenty shilling for McCain at a townhall meeting in Michigan. He must think McCain can win and he's hoping to be the VP (or he's just a RINO too). I guess it could be all of the above.
I hope those who support other candidates, who won't go above 15% in Michigan and, as a result, can not win any delegates, will consider voting for Mitt to stop McCain from taking this thing and steamrolling his way to the nomination before we get to more states where only republicans can vote (like Wyoming where Mitt won).
Rominey will NOT be the nominee!
Thompson needs to cool it in Michigan and let Romney snap McCain/McHuckabee’s steak then he can can them in SC.
Mitt’s problem is credibility. He claimed in the last debate that he would deport all 12 million illegal immigrants, which is impossible. There aren’t 12 million jail cells available to process these people.
More realistic and honest: Deport the 2 million illegals who have a criminal record. That would be doable.
Why aren’t you thinking about the REAL conservative, Fred Thompson?
Vote for Fred!
Rudy is running behind Ron Paul in Michigan??? I can’t believe how he is tanking now.
This is frustrating. How have we, as a party, forgotten McCain’s constant treachery over the last decade? How is he so well-received? It boggles the mind that he even has a shot at the nomination.
Perversely, I’m rooting for Huckabee in SC, just to keep McCain tamped down. If McCain wins MI and SC, what’s that mean? And it will not have been on the basis of -conservative- support - he will have won -despite- conservatives. That will tear the party apart.
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