Posted on 02/13/2008 7:00:20 AM PST by jdm
After Barack Obama swept the Potomac Primaries last night, one might have expected Hillary Clinton to say a few words to her supporters to explain the losses. If so, the crowds that turned out for her in Texas had to manage their disappointment. They managed to let her know when they disagreed with her, however:
As news of her triple defeat in the Potomac Primary sank in, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton did what has become a specialty in recent weeks: She headed someplace else.
After flying from Virginia to Texas for a rally on Tuesday night, Clinton did not publicly acknowledge, even in passing, that three significant primaries had taken place that day and her campaign had not issued a statement hours after results were announced. ...
When Clinton mentioned having differences with Obama over health care and the mortgage crisis, she was booed. Her comments continued past 9:30 p.m. Eastern time, as the polls in Maryland closed and the race was called for Obama, but in the giant arena, with a crowd her campaign estimated at 12,000, it seemed as though the defeat had not happened.
She talked about George Bush and Barack Obama being "all hat and no cattle," a rather strange reference for someone who has no executive experience at all. Her only public-policy leadership experience came from a task force that attempted to nationalize health care and lost her party control of Congress. In fact, the debacle was so bad that the Clintons have kept the records from going public for months.
It also might cause a few people to recall Hillary's history with "more cattle". Questions still remain about how she managed to turn $1,000 in cattle futures into a $100,000 profit. What was the wife of the governor of Arkansas doing in partnering with the head of a corporation in a state-regulated industry to turn an almost unheard-of profit from a minimal investment? Talk about all hat, no cattle!
Beyond that, though, Hillary still remains the favorite to win the nomination. She now trails in overall delegates for the first time, and in pledged delegates Obama leads by over a hundred, 1059-956. Without the 796 superdelegates, neither can win the 2,025 delegates necessary to get the nomination, and the primary map will soon start favoring Hillary. I doubt that the gap will get much wider, and it will likely narrow considerably. Unless Obama can keep widening it all the way to the convention, he's sunk.
Here's why. The superdelegates represent the elected and appointed establishment of the party. The Clintons have spent the last sixteen years putting most of them in power. They have campaigned for them, raised cash for them, and gotten them their jobs. Most of them are superdelegates because of the Clintons in one way or another. Barack Obama, on the other hand, just won his first national office three years ago, and has done far less for most of these elected and appointed officials.
When the Clintons come calling, which will most of these people choose to support? The people who put them in the position of casting this vote, or a candidate who hasn't done hardly anything for them? Will they select the candidate that wants to incorporate the establishment into the next administration, or the one that has campaigned on the promise to clean out the establishment?
Obama had better hope he wins everything between now and Denver. If he has less than a two-hundred delegate lead going into the convention, he won't win the nomination.
Ed Morrissey is generally spot on. But I have to disagree with him on the super-delegate thing. His rationale for believing that they’ll break for Hillary presumes an underlying loyalty. I just don’t see it.
Morrisey says “the Clintons have spent the last sixteen years putting most of them in power. They have campaigned for them, raised cash for them, and gotten them their jobs. Most of them are superdelegates because of the Clintons in one way or another.” True enough. But it’s this same self-interest that will drive the delegates to align with whomever they think will preserve that power for them. If they sense that Obama has a better chance to win in the general, that’s who they’ll support. It’s called trading up.
People whose loyalties have once been bought with position can be counted on to do it again.
Bump Diesel man!
When the Clintons come calling, which will most of these people choose to support? The people who put them in the position of casting this vote, or a candidate who hasn't done hardly anything for them? Will they select the candidate that wants to incorporate the establishment into the next administration, or the one that has campaigned on the promise to clean out the establishment?
Here's my WAG on the Super Delegates.
They'll do the same thing that happened when Obama upset the Daley Machine's hand picked senate primary candidate, Dan Hynes - of the Chicago and IL Dem powerhouse Hynes family.From Daley to Durbin, to our ijit gov 'Blago', and even the Hynes family itself - including the defeated Dan Hynes - it's now one big Obama love fest. Daley and Billy-Jeff were thick as thieves, now it's; 'President Klintoon who'?After they recover from the apoplectic shock of Obama winning all the primary delegates (every vote counts ya know) they'll bolt to Obama like rats from a sinking ship.
I see just the opposite. If Obama is the nominee, Chief Justice Roberts might as well be in Denver to swear him in because he is going to win. Against Hillary we have a chance because enough conservatives despise her that they would be lining up to vote against her even if they have to vote for McCain to do it. Also, with Obama's current and likely final lead in elected delegates Hillary will have to fight dirty which will split the party, leaving Obama's supporters disillusioned about how the 'Rats really act.
I strongly disagree. The Super Delegates cannot be that stupid to give Hillary Clinton the nomination when she has lost the delegates count from the real vote. This will assure a rebellion in the democrat party and hence a certain defeat for them this November.
With the super delegates on her side, she'll get the remains of his money...and many of his votes.
Look at the big picture....A hell of a lot more Dem voters went to the polls than Republicans. Obama is an orator...and that's what orators do....incite!!
She will be forced to pick him as VP, too and I'd guess that deal has already been made.
All she has to do is maintain her "cool" AND SAY NOTHING!!
On the rare occasions that they sleep in the same room... or house... or state.
“all hat and no cattle,”
Maybe it should read: All Hat and Cattle Futures
Hillary’s age is telling on her. She is tired and losing her voice regularly. She will win the nomination if it causes a civil war in the Democrat party. It’s all about Hillary and Bill, all the time and going through this at an even older age for her would be iffy at best.
McCain's stand on the war is unpopular among most Americans, which Obama will exploit. McCain voted against the Medicare prescription drug program, a correct stand among Reps, but not among most seniors and groups like AARP. Obama has energized the Dem base, especially the young and African-Americans. McCain has depressed the Rep base, especially conservatives.
Hillary would be a far better candidate than Obama for the Reps. She has high negatives, along with her husband and the baggage he brings. Hillary voted for the war. Hillary is not likeable and is shrill. Hillary will depress Dem support if she takes the nomination, especially if she uses super delegates to steal it from Obama, the people's choice. Hillary will energize the Rep base far more than Obama or McCain.
If Hillary is the nominee, McCain has a slim chance. If Obama is the nominee, McCain has no chance.
Bet on the KKKlintons to pull off a miracle come-back. Throw in a little dirty dealing, bribery and arm twisting, and Obamarama is done.
But I feel bad for Huma if she has to wake up to that.
My stupidity may be showing but, who is Huma?
She’s
all hot air
AND
all stink.
Hillary’s carpet cleaner.
Where, and next to whom, Bill Clinton wakes up on most mornings is a very carefully guarded secret(s). You can bet it's not next to Hillary.
I disagree. I know a lot of folks who are Obama fans, and he has generated real enthusiasm among his supporters. The media is certainly helping that along, but he does have an engaging presence that people like. He's refreshing and different. (And callow, and propbably dishonest, and he has no serious abilities or experience as far as being president goes -- but this is not a practical enthusiasm we're talking about....)
If you look at the math, he needs to increase his winning percentages and cannot affford a single slip up.
Probably true, but here you have to look at how wrong the "seasoned analysts" have been about that race. Obama's candidacy is a phenomenon that they're unable to properly analyze, because of the enthusiasm he generates among his supporters. It's a race where the usual political calculus doesn't seem to apply. He'll have that kind of momentum.
What the Clintons will need to do, and I'm sure they know this, is to reset the process so that the usual political calculus does apply. They're going to have to destroy the enthusiasm for Obama ... and the Democrat Party in the process, but for Clintons that's a secondary matter...
... all ass and no class.
Oooooh, that’s hard.....but I like it!
Now that I know it was El Paso--that makes perfect sense---going after the Mexican vote.
I wonder if she will make an appearance in the Rio Grand Valley? Maybe Brownsville?
This is the MSM take on the matter, not mine.
While Hillary is certainly polarizing, the reality is that Obamma has the momentum, and is much farther to the left. he makes Hillary look like a conservative.
I think this fact will energize the base more than Hillary's reputation, or bubba.
To get a conservative to vote for McCain is not easy, but to get them to vote against someone is.
Obamma is much easier to show as a socialist lefty, and that's a fact.
You're right about the convention, but I think you're wrong about the Clintons' response. They know that in order to avoid the firestorm, they will have to destroy Obama before the convention. They will be bringing out all of the very worst they can dig up about him ... and I suspect they've probably got some choice bits.
The fact that it will destroy the Democrat party in the process is secondary....
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