2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008

InTrade ^ | Monday, March 31, 2008 | Momaw Nadon

[KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle]

Possibly [...] Michigan

Good luck with that.

[Bean Counter]

Here’s a mind-bug for all of you...

What would the map look like with a McCain/Clinton ticket?? No,I didn’t mistype that....

Think about the net result if Obama is the DemocRat nominee...Hillary might as well be McCain’s Veep at that point because I think many if not most of her followers would hold their noses and vote for McCain before they would ever vote for Obama...especially if this goes all the way to the Convention in August.

[KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle]

What would the map look like with a McCain/Clinton ticket??

I'd be far more intensely interested -- initially, at least -- in witnessing what this board would look like in such an eventuality. ;) The Team McCain shills hereabouts, after all, have been waving the increasingly threadbare and ineffectual "HILLARYHILLARY BOOGABOOGABOOGA!" scarecrow about, attempting to frighten conservatives into voting for their anointed RINO du jour, come November.

Personally, I think it'd be funnier than hell, watching them all scrabbling frantically about in their sudden attempt to pull off a collective 180-degree turn and begin lecturing, blandly, that "... well, Hillary's actually pretty darned conservtive, really..." I'd buy popcorn. ;)

[Momaw Nadon]

This week's "battleground" states (30.0% - 69.9%):

27 Florida 68.5%

13 Virginia 55.5%

11 Missouri 52.0%

5 Nevada 48.5%

9 Colorado 47.5%

4 New Hampshire 40.5%

20 Ohio 37.3%

5 New Mexico 36.5%

10 Wisconsin 35.0%

17 Michigan 34.5%

7 Iowa 34.0%

21 Pennsylvania 33.8%

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

Hmmmm Let’s see, McCain is losing by 58 electoral votes, Yup, that settles it! McCain is “trending” for a win......

And wait till the MSM gets through with him. 8 months left before the election........ The Chickens aren’t ready for counting quite yet.

[Momaw Nadon]

Yup, that settles it! McCain is “trending” for a win......

If you check the links of previous projections in Post #2 and look at the chart in Post #14, it is clear that the "trend" is in McCain's favor.

He's still under 270 Electoral Votes at this time, but if the trend continues at its current pace, McCain will be ahead by 11/4/2008.

[RichardW]

I see that Nevada flipped to the Dems. Going in the wrong direction. Can McCain win Pennsylvania?

[Bean Counter]

It’s scenarios like this that make Ralph Nader look better to me, as he’s the guy most likely to do the least amount of damage...

[Momaw Nadon]

McCain went down by 2% in Nevada over the past week, and is currently at 48.5%. My guess is that Nevada will probably flip back to the GOP.

McCain's chances of winning Pennsylvania have increased since January. On 1/7/2008 he was at 19.0% in Pennsylvania. Today, McCain has a 33.8% chance of winning Pennsylvania according to InTrade.

[skully]

If Obama’s the nominee, I say McCain wins Ohio. The Dems in Ohio tend to be more labor union blue dog types, and many will not vote for a racist America hater like Obama. This Wright thing hurts him in the GE with white independents.
I think any Blue state that Hillary beat Obama in by more then 10 points, will be in play in the fall. e.g Ohio,PA, Mich,NH. I think McCain's chances are better then average. SO the good news is Obama probably won't be President. The bad news is Mccain probably will.

[cynwoody]

These are from the Iowa Electronic Markets:

For the election:

For the Democrat nomination:

[Political Junkie Too]

Bssed on the probabilities in your table above, the expected value of GOP electoral votes is 250. The probability of getting at least 270 Electoral Votes is 29.29%.

If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 252.22 Electoral Votes.

One note on your calculation method... You are trying to calculate the probability-weighted average of Electoral Votes for McCain. Your formula is close, but not exact. What you should do is simply multiply McCain's probability (as a decimal between 0 and 1) of winning a state by that state's electoral college votes, and then sum the results for all states. This will give you the expected value.

The expected value is a point that represents the average of repeated sample elections using the probabilities to determine state wins and losses. The outcomes are plotted on a curve to determine the cumulative probability distribution of repeated elections. Then, you can use the curve to determine the probability of the 270 value or greater occuring.

I've been running 20,000 simulated elections to determine the probability of winning.

-PJ