Posted on 07/28/2008 6:09:07 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Yesterday the Gallup Tracking Poll showed Obama ahead by 9 points (49-40). Earlier today (Monday) that dropped to Obama ahead by 8 points (48-40). Both were of registered voters.
Now Gallup/USA Today released a new poll of LIKELY voters, showing a 4 point lead for McCain, his first lead in any major poll since early May.
The switch from registered to likely voters explains most of the difference.
Yet this jumping around does not inspire confidence in Gallup:
Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among "likely" voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. McCain still trails slightly among the broader universe of "registered" voters. By both measures, the race is tight.
The Friday-Sunday poll, mostly conducted as Obama was returning from his much-publicized overseas trip and released just this hour, shows McCain now ahead 49%-45% among voters that Gallup believes are most likely to go to the polls in November. In late June, he was behind among likely voters, 50%-44%.
Among registered voters, McCain still trails Obama, but by less. He is behind by 3 percentage points in the new poll (47%-44%) vs. a 6-point disadvantage (48%-42%) in late June.
Results based on the survey of 791 likely voters have margins of error of +/- 4 percentage points — so McCain's lead is not outside that range. Results based on the survey of 900 registered voters also have margins of error of +/- 4 percentage points.
Gallup editor Frank Newport tells Jill that "registered voters are much more important at the moment," because Election Day is still 100 days away, but that the likely-voter result suggests that it may be possible for McCain to energize Republicans and turn them out this fall.
Note that Obama's lead among even registered voters has dropped precipitously from 9% to 8% to 3% in data from Gallup added to Real Clear Politics since midnight Sunday night. Indeed, both the 8% and the 3% results were for polls taken the same three days surveying apparently different samples of the same population, registered voters — strange but not surprising, given the low response rates for most public opinion polls these days.
I’m beginning to think so.
We’ll probably see another small peak for Obama after Commiefest ‘08, better known as the Democratic National Convention, but then it’s all downhill from there.
All the pollsters are frauds now IMHO
I don't beleive all those nasty things people say about you...well not all of them...well maybe most of them...OK I suppose maybe all those bad things are true...but at least you aren't an axe murderer...as far as I know, since anybody could turn out to be one I suppose...although you more likely than most, considering all those bad things people say about you...but I just want you to know, I'm not calling the police...just yet I mean...while your here and all...
Funny, you don’t LOOK gay... much.
I thought Obambi was the next president?
Yet, among likely voters, McCain is up by four points. The media would have you believe that Obambi is up by 20 points and McCain can never catch him. This poll suggests that McCain us up by more than just four among likely voters.
The partisan media shill wrote “insignificantly ahead” because it’s McCain in the lead. Thanks 2ndDivisionVet.
Gallup Poll Shows McCain Ahead of Obama
(McCain 49% Obama 45%)
aol news | Jul 28th 2008 4:30PM | Mark Impomeni
Posted on 07/28/2008 4:36:28 PM PDT by Red Steel
Edited on 07/28/2008 4:39:28 PM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2052812/posts
Fox Poll: Obama Up 1 point, 75% Want Drilling NOW!
108,000 Drill Now Emails To Congress In 1 Week.
PDOP | 07/24/2008 | Jarid Brown
Posted on 07/24/2008 10:34:35 AM PDT by Jabrown
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2050649/posts
Latest AOL Straw Poll: McCain Sweeps 50 States
AOL | 7/22/08
Posted on 07/22/2008 10:00:51 AM PDT by pabianice
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2049446/posts
Could 2008 Be a McCain Landslide?
- the 2 issues: Supreme Court & our war against IslamoFascism
AmericanThinker | Jul 12, 2008 | Kyle-Anne Shiver
Posted on 07/20/2008 1:19:35 PM PDT by Righting
Edited on 07/20/2008 1:41:17 PM PDT by Lead Moderator. [history]
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2048489/posts
Obama Landslide? Not So Fast (Think JFK)
‘blog at gather.com | July 20, 2008 | Jack Engelhard
Posted on 07/20/2008 11:58:51 AM PDT by leonard33
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2048458/posts
The GOP’s Sisyphus
The Boston Globe | July 27, 2008 | Joan Vennochi
Posted on 07/26/2008 10:04:05 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2051961/posts
Nice try, but not close to “You have a great personality”.
You could make a lot of money by betting against the Obama suckers. ;-)
Yup. But I’m not sure even God could help us if the Obamanation was elected POTUS...
But a 4% lead for Obama is the beginning of a route.
“.. McCain insignificantly ahead”
This is classic ratspeak. Every cycle we need to remember what ratspeak is.
Here goes. If the rat is down by more than 5 points, he is down. If he is down by 5 or less he is “in the margin”.
If he is tied, he is up. If he is up 1 or 2 points he up. If he is up 3, he is pulling away and if he is up 4 he is in a “commanding position.” Never ever is the margin mentioned if the rat is up. Never ever is there any talk about polls “being only a snap shot.” Never ever in ratspeak is a disclaimer published with a poll result if the rat is up. That ONLY happens if the rat is up.
Ratspeak, don’t you love it?
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