Posted on 09/22/2008 7:10:03 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
“YAY! All “Yankees” ain’t bad, I guess... :-)”
nope not all of us, though there are plenty who are ;)
i really hope McCain pulls out a win and it would be icing on the cake if he wins my adopted state of NH. I fled Mass 5 years ago and the @#$% blue liberal wave followed me
I wonder if this takes into consideration the sizable numbers of democrats who, despite what they say in public, will not pull the lever for Obama because of their own racial prejudices.
***It doesn’t matter. There’s something really wrong in pinning any hopes on such racial prejudices and there appears to be no way of quantifying them. And then, of course, the MSM and democrats will call America prejudiced if they lose. There’s nothing here of value for us in discussing it.
If that happens, 2008 will make 2000 look like a kindergarten picnic.
And unfortunately, the Dims have the numbers in the House to give Hussein the Presidency (I should know, I looked at what would happen if the EC ended up tied at 269).
By state it currently looks like it's 27 D, 21 R, and 2 states (AZ and KS) have a split delegation.
Now, if memory serves, the House members vote and have to vote again until they get a simple majority (in this case 26 states for one candidate or another).
wouldn't that make it 269 a piece? if it's a tie, McCain loses...
Of course, it’s the congress that is seated in January that gets to vote. Do you know if D.C. gets a vote in this scenario?
According to Article II Sec I, I don’t believe so. If anyone has anything else that I might have missed, that would be great.
| Week | GOP Electoral Votes |
Probability of 270 |
|---|---|---|
| 7-Jan | 241.05 | 20.18% |
| 14-Jan | 235.29 | 14.70% |
| 21-Jan | 234.76 | 14.66% |
| 28-Jan | 236.58 | 15.44% |
| 4-Feb | 236.26 | 15.41% |
| 11-Feb | 237.25 | 16.43% |
| 18-Feb | 230.61 | 12.69% |
| 25-Feb | 233.56 | 15.44% |
| 3-Mar | 234.54 | 16.27% |
| 10-Mar | 240.26 | 22.49% |
| 17-Mar | 244.58 | 24.60% |
| 24-Mar | 249.73 | 28.50% |
| 31-Mar | 252.18 | 30.87% |
| 7-Apr | 248.97 | 27.60% |
| 14-Apr | 249.24 | 27.62% |
| 21-Apr | 247.86 | 25.60% |
| 28-Apr | 251.65 | 29.06% |
| 5-May | 250.84 | 28.07% |
| 12-May | 252.31 | 29.25% |
| 19-May | 248.73 | 25.99% |
| 26-May | 250.15 | 27.10% |
| 2-Jun | 248.98 | 26.46% |
| 9-Jun | 247.87 | 26.81% |
| 16-Jun | 248.41 | 26.06% |
| 23-Jun | 233.92 | 15.76% |
| 30-Jun | 234.84 | 16.21% |
| 14-Jul | 237.43 | 19.14% |
| 21-Jul | 231.61 | 14.15% |
| 28-Jul | 233.21 | 15.18% |
| 4-Aug | 234.45 | 16.45% |
| 11-Aug | 242.62 | 21.56% |
| 18-Aug | 246.64 | 25.20% |
| 25-Aug | 248.30 | 25.59% |
| 01-Sep | 255.23 | 32.44% |
| 08-Sep | 254.33 | 30.70% |
| 14-Sep | 272.47 | 51.00% |
| 22-Sep | 260.79 | 38.30% |
I've also been running a stochastic model of the electoral college count based on Rasmussen state polls going back to the beginning of the year.
Here are the results going back to the week of 30-Jun-2008:
| Week | GOP Electoral Votes |
Probability of 270 |
|---|---|---|
| 30-Jun | 247.61 | 14.79% |
| 7-Jul | 243.61 | 10.79% |
| 14-Jul | 246.70 | 12.66% |
| 21-Jul | 242.84 | 7.08% |
| 28-Jul | 230.98 | 2.46% |
| 4-Aug | 232.92 | 3.11% |
| 11-Aug | 234.99 | 4.16% |
| 18-Aug | 244.11 | 11.64% |
| 25-Aug | 253.91 | 21.71% |
| 08-Sep | 260.56 | 32.23% |
| 15-Sep | 275.60 | 62.48% |
| 22-Sep | 271.13 | 54.65% |
For comparison, if you think that Republicans are underpolled, the sensitivity of the Rasmussen state-by-state polls is such that an across-the-board 1% reduction in Obama polling and a 1% increase in McCain polling results in 297.29 Electoral Votes for McCain, with a 93.61% chance of winning.
Here are my leanings of the states based on Rasmussen polls:
| Safe (100%) R | Strong (86%-99%) R | Likely (70%-85%) R | Lean (60%-69%) R | Toss-Up | Lean (60%-69%) D | Likely (70%-85%) D | Strong (86%-99%) D | Safe (100%) D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama (9) | South Carolina (8) | Florida (27) | Colorado (9) | - | New Hampshire (4) | Maine (4) | Iowa (7) | California (55) |
| Alaska (3) | West Virginia (5) | Missouri (11) | Indiana (11) | - | Pennsylvania (21) | Oregon (7) | Michigan (17) | Connecticut (7) |
| Arizona (10) | - | North Carolina (15) | Nevada (5) | - | Washington (11) | - | Minnesota (10) | District of Columbia (3) |
| Arkansas (6) | - | Ohio (20) | New Mexico (5) | - | Wisconsin (10) | - | - | Delaware (3) |
| Georgia (15) | - | - | Virginia (13) | - | - | - | - | Hawaii (4) |
| Idaho (4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | Illinois (21) |
| Kansas (6) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | Maryland (10) |
| Kentucky (8) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | Massachusetts (12) |
| Louisiana (9) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | New Jersey (15) |
| Mississippi (6) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | New York (31) |
| Montana (3) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | Rhode Island (4) |
| Nebraska (5) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | Vermont (3) |
| North Dakota (3) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Oklahoma (7) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| South Dakota (3) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Tennessee (11) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Texas (34) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Utah (5) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Wyoming (3) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
-PJ
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