Rasmussen: McCain 49%, Obama 48% in Florida

The presidential race in Florida is now essentially even. The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds John McCain ahead of Barack Obama 49% to 48%.

Support for the GOP nominee is at the highest level in the past five polls of the state. Last week, Obama held a 51% to 46% lead. He led by seven points in the Fox/Rasmussen poll the week before.

The tighter race in Florida is consistent with national polling, which has tightened up over the past week. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll has generally shown Obama up by four or five points nationally during the past week. Prior to that, Obama had consistently enjoyed a five-to-eight point lead.

The match-up is just as close among unaffiliated voters in Florida, with McCain holding a 46% to 45% edge. The Republican now leads 50% to 45% among men, while Obama holds onto a 51% to 48% lead among women (see full demographic crosstabs).

Eighty-five percent (85%) of Florida voters say they are certain who they will vote for in November, while just 15% say there is good chance they can still change their minds.

McCain is viewed favorably by 58% and unfavorably by 41%. Obama’s numbers in Florida are 53% favorable, 45% unfavorable.

While voters trust McCain more than Obama overall by a 47% to 45% margin, the candidates are tied at 47% when it comes to trust on the top issue of the economy and jobs. McCain still has the edge on national security, 55% to 41%.

Nearly half of Florida voters (49%) believe Obama does not have the right experience to be president, while 41% say he does have the right experience. However, more than a third (34%) of voters says they would be extremely comfortable with him in office, while 38% say they would not be comfortable at all.

Most voters in Florida (68%) think McCain does have the right experience for the job, compared to just 20% who believe the opposite. Still, just 28% say they would be extremely comfortable with McCain in office, while 31% say they would not be comfortable at all.

Though both candidates have promised to bring real change to Washington, 40% of Florida voters say only Obama is capable of following through on that promise, while just 29% say that of McCain. Another 18% say both of them are capable of bringing real change to the Capitol, while just 9% say neither candidate can.

If faced with one of life’s toughest decisions, 48% of voters in Florida say they would ask McCain for advice, while 45% would turn to Obama.

Eighty-three percent of voters in Florida (83%) say they are extremely interested in the election at this point, while just 1% say they have no interest.

Florida has been carried by the Republican presidential candidates in eight out of the last 10 elections, most notably in 2000 when it took a month to determine that George W. Bush was the winner. In 2004, Bush easily defeated Democrat John Kerry 52% to 47%. The closeness of the 2000 race, however, has given Florida the reputation of being a so-called swing state.

I believe McPalin will win handily. Here are the reasons I have collected visiting FR way too much.

1) “Polls” that show Obama ahead tell a different story when internals are studied. Please see http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/14/an-eeyore-free-zone for a primer on how polls are cooked. UPDATE: Rasmussen saying McCain ahead in Florida and Ohio.

And now, a brief history lesson of ACTUAL ELECTION RESULTS:

1980: Reagan 50.75%, Carter 41%, (+9.75 Reagan) Reagan won 45 states.
1984: Regan 58.77%, Mondale 40.56% (+18.21 Regan) Reagan won 49 states.
1988: Bush 53.37%, Dukakis 45.65% (+7.72 Bush) Bush won 42 states.
1992: Clinton 43.01%, Bush 37.45%, Perot 18.91% (+5.66% Clinton) Clinton won 30 states.
1996: Clinton 49.23%, Dole 40.72%, Perot 8.40% (+8.49% Clinton) Clinton won 31 states.
2000: Bush 47.87%, Gore 48.38% (Gore +0.49%) Bush won 30 states.
2004: Bush 50.73%, Kerry 48.27% (Bush +2.46%) Bush won 31 states.

NO WAY is Obama up 14 points!

2) Hillary and Bill are not acting like they want Obama to win, since she wants to run again in 2012, despite what she alludes to.

3) “Hussein” being Obama’s middle name is still news to most people.

4) A picture of Obama dressed as a Muslim (there are at least three) is still worth 1000 words (3000 in this case). Man your email station! Post bills!

5) The PUMAs who know the hows and whys of Hillary getting cheated, will vote Palin, and will pull others. Check out http://www.hillaryclintonforum.net/discussion/showthread.php?t=33711&page=3 and http://democrats-against-obama.org

6) “Bitter ... [Gun Clingers]”, will vote McCain

7) The Palins ARE America and the conservative base. America and the conservative base will vote accordingly. According to http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2106836/posts parts of the country that were not fired up about the election, are working for Palin. She draws THOUSANDS at every campaign stop.

8) The NRA has “8 figures” of ads to unload in “swing” states

9) At one point, Obama was only 5 points up in New York! New York!

10) The Democrats were talking about Democratic consultants freaking out over Obama mis-managing his campaign before they settled into poll alteration.

11) The Enemedia is already spreading the meme that if Obama loses, it “is racism”. They see the tea leaves ...

12) The Media was calling the election for Kerry ELECTION MORNING in 2004, and Carter and Reagan polled evenly on election day! SOMEONE is trying to buffalo us with these polls! For more on the history of polls leaning Democrat, please see http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2106669/posts Both Zogby and Mike McCurry predicted a Kerry win.

13) McCain has only started to play the Ayers card. McCain has not yet played the Tony Rezko, Odinga, ... more at http://www.barackbook.com

14) Plenty of long-time Democratic voters are unimpressed with Obama, and will not vote for him. Two midwestern transplants have volunteered to me that they know lifelong Democrats who WILL NOT vote for Obama. The 1st hand accounts here on Free Republic about lack of enthusiasm for Obama relative to Kerry similarly bodes poorly for Obama.

15) Obama has only 60% of the Jewish vote last I checked, compared to the 75% Kerry got. Please see http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/obama_and_the_jewish_vote.php and http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08293/921167-470.stm

16) The Christian base that re-elected Bush in 2004, knows Sarah is more than a Sunday Christian, and is praying for her.

17) McCain opened 50 offices in California. It’s in play! It should be the bluest of the blue, and it is not.

18) Google “Bradley Effect”. Obama is getting poll votes he’ll never get on election day. PUMAs have also agreed to lie to pollsters about supporting Obama, and are encouraging others to do so.

19) Operation Chaos resulted in an overlarge quantity of Democrat registrations that will never ever vote Democratic.

20) Obama’s “spread the wealth” line to Joe the Plumber will cost him undecideds not ready to etch the current class structure in stone.

21) The Enemedia overstating Obama’s popularity will cut two ways. The lazy, and the youth, (core Democrat constituencies) will not brave traffic and lines to vote on election day, since they were lied to by the KGBMedia to believe that Obama has a gigantic lead.

22) There is a group playing Jeremiah Wrights ads. Read more about it http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2108462/posts, and to donate visit https://www.completecampaigns.com/FR/contribute.asp?campaignid=OCDBPac.

23) Polls are meant by the Enemedia, to SHAPE public opinion, not to accurately report it.

Fellow Freepers, please feel free to post this list every time you see a Freeper or anyone feeling down, anywhere. No need to credit me or ping or write me.

If you do start spreading this list, it might not be bad for you to check back for updates since Freepers are always kindly giving feedback to this list.

Let me know if you have any other under-reported reasons for the coming McCain/Palin win.

Mantra: Taxes kill businesses kill jobs kill people

Please tell me if you think there are mistakes.

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