thought this was a cool picture
Posted on 10/24/2008 7:31:47 AM PDT by freedomwarrior998
http://ifreedomtrail.blogspot.com/2008/10/biased-polls-party-affiliation-part-ii.html
DJ Drummond has another post on biased state polls. This one revisits an issue I have written about in the past--party affiliation.
Just to be clear, party affiliation isn't something that changes frequently during a persons life. One switch is unlikely. Two is very rare. Just think about your own personal party affiliation. Did you register with one party for one election, the other the next, independent for a third, and back to the original party for a fourth? I'm confident that the answer to that question is an emphatic no.
And I am not talking about voting for a candidate from the other party; that happens much more frequently. One can imagine a bitter Clinton supporter voting for McCain in protest of how Obama treated her during the primary. But this person is still a Democrat and will remain a Democrat in all likelihood.
With that in mind, look at some of the shifts in party affiliation Survey USA polling is using this year.
Pennsylvania: D+5 in 2006, SUSA using D+19, 15 point variance
Indiana: R+14 in 2006, SUSA using R+1, 13 point variance
Nevada: R+7 in 2006, SUSA using D+6, 13 point variance
Colorado: R+3 in 2006, SUSA using D+9, 12 point variance
Iowa: R+2 in 2006, SUSA using D+10, 12 point variance
Virginia: R+3 in 2006, SUSA using D+9, 12 point variance
Ohio: D+3 in 2006, SUSA using D+13, 10 point variance
Missouri: R+1 in 2006, SUSA using D+7, 8 point variance
North Carolina: R+1 in 2006, SUSA using D+5, 6 point variance
In every case, the variance is in one direction--towards the Democratic Party. And just look at some of the differences. Indiana was +14 Republican in 2006 and now suddenly it is only +1? Pennsylvania is +19 Democratic now? That stat is always a balance between the urban left of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and the rural right of every other county. Ohio as +13 Democrat in what has always been a swing state. None of these are justifiable. Drummond comments:
I've looked at the publicly available records on historical election participation, 2008 new voter registrations, and the Census information on these states, but I can find no valid reason for such large and arbitrary changes in political affiliation weightings. I would therefore submit that the models being used for many of the state polls have design flaws, which threaten the credibility of their published results.
For the fifth time or so in the last few days, let me make this clear. Don't trust the polls. Dave at Hedgehog is panicking about an Ohio poll that shows Obama up by 14% in Ohio. Ludicrous. And when you look at the internals, now you know why.
Vote as if your life depends on it because it does.
thought this was a cool picture
National IBD/TIPP Obama 45, McCain 44
National GWU/Battleground Obama 49, McCain 46
National Gallup (Traditional)* Obama 50, McCain 46
National Associated Press/GfK Obama 44, McCain 43
Ohio Strategic Vision (R) Obama 45, McCain 48
Florida Strategic Vision (R) Obama 46, McCain 48
Pennsylvania Strategic Vision (R) Obama 50, McCain 43
North Carolina Winthrop/ETV Obama 45, McCain 44
Virginia Winthrop/ETV Obama 45, McCain 44
Florida NBC/Mason-Dixon Obama 45, McCain 46
Ohio FOX News/Rasmussen Obama 47, McCain 49
Already voted.
BTW, I don’t know anyone that’s for McCain-Palin that is being depressed by these polls. Quite the contrary, they are motivated as hell to vote GOP.
These are average people, not fanatics like us. People I know in NY, NJ, PA, NC and FL.
I’m in Georgia and have spoken to “yellow dog” Dems that smile and whisper, “This is my first Republican vote ever”.
I’ve only spoken to one person that is flipping the other way from GOP to NoBama.
....and your childrens and grandchildrens...lives as well.
I don't want to wake up on Wednesday morning and say, "I was born in a Capitolist country with Capitolist opportunites but we decided to give our kids a Communist future instead with Communist opportunites dictated by the government."
The thought gives me chills..........
I am glad you posted it.
From my standpoint I know the DBM pols are all spiked left.
Bottom line never give up!!
We are opposing a candidate who is wrong for the country,he's a socialist, opposes energy security,promotes class warfare, has little if any experience and has never held as paying job in the free enterprise world which he hates so WTH is the problem?
Makes complete sense. I just hope this isn’t “wishful thinking”. The fact that BO has been consistently ahead with a McCain lead only temporarily after announcing Palin and the convention is still troubling.
The only way that any of this makes sense, is if all the pollsters are in cahoots with one another OR the combination of —1- the “Bradley” effect—2- cell phones as ONLY communication for some—3- intimidated McCain voters saying BO for fear of retribution. (which plays into the “Bradley” effect but not entirely)
My thought is the sheer intimidation and fear of having one’s life or property destroyed by answering a poll “incorrectly” is a great possibility. Over the years, people have seen and read the stories of damages to property etc from libs. Your vote is private and some may be saying that in a phone survey.
Any thoughts on this lengthy post?
“I’m in Georgia and have spoken to “yellow dog” Dems that smile and whisper, “This is my first Republican vote ever”.
...I’ve heard this many times from others. I personally have not experienced this. The silent majority whispers it’s vote? I hope so. It IS a privacy issue and should remain as such.
Actually, I’m loving that all of these polls are going toward zerobama.
Let the rats think they have it in the bag - they’ll never turn off Springer and Maury and actually go vote if they think they’ve already won.
We Republicans, on the other hand, love playing the media for the fools that they are.
I will love nothing more to see the rat wailing and gnashing of teeth again come Nov. 5th.
Many could have been thrown for a loop because of the weird Demonrat primary this year. There were a lot of people registering as Democrats and Independents to vote in the Democrat primary.
You also have the ACORN registrations. (Those people don't exist.)
This election is a straight ticket year. The left and the Democrats are trying to steal and election and place our country at risk by forcing a socialist on us.
We need to remember the following
*Don’t forget your elderly or disabled relatives. Just make sure to vet them to make sure they want to vote McCain before you take them to the polls.
*If you have kids in the house older than 18 years old who are considering voting for Obama then don’t bother reminding them to vote. If you can’t flip them ditch em. Give them money to go to the mall or go party.
*We all have friends who really don’t care one way or the other. Ask them to vote for you if they can’t vote because they want to. Put your friendship on the line.
*If your wife or husband is an Obama supporter then purposely run interference on election day to distract them from voting.
I hate to suggest these things but I think we need to be practical and ruthless because our opponents are.
You know, it just occurred to me that it is very possible that this Obama candidacy could actually have some serious backlash. In 1980, Reagans landslide broke a generational tradition in the South to vote Democrat. People started switching over to GOP in droves, and current Democrat office holders at every level of service began switching over to the GOP
The same thing can actually happen this year in some parts of the country.
This is what happens when a socialst tries to run for national office, the effects are felt all the way down to the local level. I'm pretty sure most of the currently elected folks are going to stay where they are, the cross-overs have been resolved, but as for the "conservative Democrats" that have not yet made the decision, this election is hard for them to swallow and may cause more than a few of them to rethink their party affiliations.
Another thing that is possibly skewing the results on ‘party affiliation’, are the number of conservatives that do not feel ‘affiliated’ with the republican party anymore.
I received a survey call about 3-4 months ago and when they asked me which party I was ‘affiliated’ with, I told them neither, that I was a conservative. Of course, I have always voted republican, but they called on one of those days where my disgust with rhino republicans was high....lol
What does this mean? My best honest guess is "Republican Electoral Landslide". Who knows who will win the popular vote, but if polls are showing only 5-7% lead for Obama, it means he has lost the state. GOP always out-performs the polls. GOP is highly motivated I would say stoked like a hot fire. Some of the independents wavering on supporting him are not that stoked, so they're not going to show up as much as Obama hoped, imho.
It depends upon the surroundings.
Some would rather not face a confrontation if you get my drift.
Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice.
I’ll give you three personnal contacts.
My girlfriend’s two sons and her mother.
The sons are construction workers being pressured by their union thugs to vote for Obama. They smile and say they will, then flip the bird on the guy when he walks away. They voted for Clinton in the primary.
As for Grandy, she’s a 78 year old, dyed-in-the-wool Roosevelt Democrat but says “that nasty ole Michelle just thinks she is the Queen of America. Not if I can help it!”
Good for you. I know in my part of VA that is the case more than ever people are scared to death of an Obama Presidency.
The last time I was out canvasing that was the common them, people praying saying they were afraid. Everyone wanting signs in their yards. We can not keep signs stocked in VA the demand is so high. It is not uncommon to see house after house with McCain/Palin signs. In all the weeks of canvasing I’ve found 5 Obama voters 2 were black and 3 white and only the blacks said out right they were voting for him. Kerry’s support was much stronger in my opinion. The same people who had Kerry signs in their yard in years past don’t this year.
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