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2010 Florida GOP Senate Primary: Crist 43%, Rubio 43%
RasmussenReports ^ | December 15, 2009

Posted on 12/15/2009 3:33:14 PM PST by Steelfish

Election 2010: Florida GOP Senate Primary 2010 Florida GOP Senate Primary: Crist 43%, Rubio 43%

Tuesday, December 15

Governor Charlie Crist and former state House Speaker Marco Rubio are now tied in the 2010 race for the Republican Senate nomination in Florida.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely GOP Primary voters finds Crist and Rubio each with 43% of the vote. Five percent (5%) prefer another candidate, and nine percent (9%) are undecided.

Crist’s support has fallen from 53% in August to 49% in October. Rasmussen Reports noted at the time, “The fact that Crist has fallen below 50% in a primary against a lesser known opponent suggests potential vulnerability.”

Rubio’s name recognition has grown in recent months and he is now viewed Very Favorably by 34% of Likely Primary Voters. That’s up from 18% in August. As his name recognition increased, Rubio’s support in the polls has jumped from 31% in August to 43% today.

Crist, well known throughout the state, has seen his ratings go in the opposite direction. Just 19% now have a Very Favorable opinion of him, a figure that represents a double digit decline since August.

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: crist; elections; fl2010; gopprimary; nomorerinos; rubio; teapartyrebellion
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To: AuH2ORepublican; darkangel82

I hope not, he might win the gubernatorial race.

Possible outcomes in order of how favorable they are

1)Crist, defeated and living in in Key West
2)Crist goes missing in Aruba
3)Crist in the Senate
4)Crist is eaten by a giant whale
5)Crist stays Governor


41 posted on 12/15/2009 5:49:35 PM PST by Impy (RED=COMMUNIST, NOT REPUBLICAN | NO "INDIVIDUAL MANDATE"!!!!!!!)
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To: Impy

My vote is going to Rubio for Senator.


42 posted on 12/15/2009 5:51:13 PM PST by darkangel82 (Five years on Free Republic)
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To: yongin

Doesn’t seem likely unless the Dems endorse him. An anti-Zero Conservative Republican vs. two pro-Zero suckups, the outcome seems self-evident.


43 posted on 12/15/2009 5:52:41 PM PST by fieldmarshaldj (~"This is what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps !"~~)
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To: Impy

Crist is eaten by Moby Dick or eats Moby Dick ?


44 posted on 12/15/2009 5:55:27 PM PST by fieldmarshaldj (~"This is what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps !"~~)
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To: Impy

Why would you prefer Crist to become a U.S. Senator than to be eaten by a giant whale? Especially if it leads him to repent of his sins, like Jonah did. Heck, that’s my number-one choice: Crist swallowed by a blue whale.

Which reminds me:

“Sad news out of Michigan today, as former President Gerald Ford was eaten by a pack of wolves. He was delicious.”


45 posted on 12/15/2009 5:59:11 PM PST by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: AmericanInTokyo

Interesting tidbit..here in Tampa, I have yet to see ONE Crist bumper sticker..there are plenty of Marco ones..


46 posted on 12/15/2009 6:06:52 PM PST by ken5050 (Save the Earth..It's the only planet with chocolate!!!)
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To: fieldmarshaldj; Impy; Clintonfatigued; BillyBoy; Clemenza

I also hope that McCollum stays in the race against Crist and whips him soundly. But McCollum may decide against taking on Crist and run for AG again, or maybe for his old House seat against that loon Grayson (who would be easy pickings for a first-tier candidate, who, alas, is yet to appear), or maybe he’d jump into the Senate race against Rubio with Crist’s endorsement and support but without his negatives (although the last time that McCollum ran against a Jeb-Bush-supported Cuban-American in a GOP primary it didn’t go so well for him). Connie Mack IV may also be willing to take on Rubio. So Crist dropping out is not risk-free for conservatives.

But Crist dropping out would send shockwaves throughout Democrat circles in FL, since every Democrat there chose to run for office based on the assumption that it was a certainty that Crist would win the GOP Senate nomination. Congressman Allen Boyd (FL-02), who not only could be vulnerable in the general in his GOP-leaning ditrict but is currently facing black state senator Al Lawson in a competitive House primary (Boyd’s House district has a higher black percentage than the state as a whole, so, counterintuitively, it may actually be easier for him to win the Senate primary than win renomination to the House), could switch to the Senate race thinking that with Crist dropping out his odds would improve against Meek in the primary (Boyd could argue that he matches up better against Rubio than does Meek, and he’d be right) and in the general. Congressman Ron Klein, who is facing a tough reelection (against Allen West in FL-22) anyhow, may also decide to go for the gold and run for the increasingly attractive (in Democrat eyes) Senate race. Some of the House Democrats from safe districts may also decide that the Senate election suddenly became less uphill than when they thought they would be facing Crist (Castor and Wasserman Schultz come to mind). I have to say, having Boyd and Klein running for the Senate would make it far likelier that we pick up those two House seats in FL.

So I, for one, hope that Crist drops out of the Senate race even if he runs for reelection instead. Hopefully, we can beat him in that primary as well and, meanwhile, Rubio can coast to election.


47 posted on 12/15/2009 6:08:33 PM PST by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: fieldmarshaldj; Impy

I said that I wished that he’d be swallowed by a blue whale, not that he’d swallow a sperm whale . . . .


48 posted on 12/15/2009 6:10:28 PM PST by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: Steelfish

And here is the imbecile Governor of Florida sucking up to ACORN while telling conservatives to go pound sand.

Time of reckoning is drawing near.

49 posted on 12/15/2009 6:12:05 PM PST by Rome2000 (OBAMA IS A COMMUNIST CRYPTO-MUSLIM)
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To: yongin

“Jeb is probably looking at the White House in 2012 or 2016.”

PLEASE, no.

I can’t stomach another Bush, ever.

Rubio, yes. Bush, no.


50 posted on 12/15/2009 6:12:10 PM PST by SharpRightTurn (White, black, and red all over--America's affirmative action, metrosexual president.)
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To: All

I think Rubio is the hispanic Barack Obama for the Republicans. By that I mean a smart, well-spoken, possible history-making potential White House candidate.

If Rubio runs he can run for the White House down the line. It would be great for the first Hispanic president to be a Republican. We would lock up the Hispanic vote for years.

On Jeb, I hope he runs too. I would gladly vote for him for president too.


51 posted on 12/15/2009 6:24:52 PM PST by ClarenceThomasfan (President Bush will go down as one of our greatest presidents (next to Ronald Reagan))
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To: AuH2ORepublican

Another scenerio would be for Crist to follow Arlen Specter’s lead.


52 posted on 12/15/2009 6:26:42 PM PST by yongin
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To: AuH2ORepublican

Speaking of FL-2, if Boyd is defeated by Lawson, I wonder if we could win it, since none of our current candidates there have raised much money (although Lawson has apparently only raised $80k to Boyd’s $860k — I’m betting perhaps close to half the Dem primary voters in that district are probably Black).


53 posted on 12/15/2009 6:38:15 PM PST by fieldmarshaldj (~"This is what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps !"~~)
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To: ClarenceThomasfan

Well, let’s wait to see how he does in the Senate before coronating him. We’ve had a lot of people let us down over the years. I remember well how excited folks were about Anh Cao in New Orleans — and now we were going to lynch him for his recent DeathCare vote.


54 posted on 12/15/2009 6:42:53 PM PST by fieldmarshaldj (~"This is what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps !"~~)
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To: TNCMAXQ

Nelson should have gone down in 2006. Unfortunately the egos of Katherine Harris, the Florida Republican establishment, and the Bush brothers resulted in a Democrat win. Health care would be much easier to defeat if a Republican were occupying Nelson’s seat today. What a wasted opportunity.


55 posted on 12/15/2009 7:27:21 PM PST by Soul of the South (When times are tough the tough get going.)
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To: Steelfish

If Rubio doesn’t IMMEDIATELY resign from the GOP and run on a Third Party ticket, then he’s a RINO!!1!1!


56 posted on 12/15/2009 7:41:43 PM PST by Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus (Conservatives unite behind conservative Republicans in the primaries!)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

I think the district is like 26%-28% black IIRC, and probably 65% of voters are registered Democrats (not only blacks from Tallahassee and Gadsden County and white liberals from Tallahassee, but also Dixiecrats from rural areas and Panama City), and blacks are overrepresented among those under 18, felons and other non-voters, so blacks are almost certainly under 40% of the Democrat primary electorate. Still, Lawson is used to getting plenty of white votes in his state senate district (which lies almost entirely within the FL-02), so it could be a very close primary.

BTW, Rich Lowrey of National Review thinks Crist should drop out of the Senate race: http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDUwOTk5NTgxNTE2Njc3MGJmMDViYTRmOGNjYWQwMzM=


57 posted on 12/15/2009 9:17:44 PM PST by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: AuH2ORepublican

Actually, it’s a lower Black % than I thought, 22%, although that was as of the 2000 census, so I don’t know how much that has changed. Tallahassee has a Black Dem Mayor (34% Black). I’m surprised the FL GOP didn’t try harder to take out Boyd in ‘02. Bill Grant tried to put it into the column with his party switch back in ‘89, but he obviously jumped the gun on that (lost to Pete Peterson in ‘90 by 57-43%, still the highest percent for a GOP candidate to date).

I’m just wondering how well Al Lawson could do in a general given the demographics. He may do well in his Senate district, but the whole CD is another story, as it still went for McCain. I know FL Dems have been trying to get Lawson to run for something else statewide, but not having much luck. I wouldn’t run statewide were I him, either, since this CD offers him a fairly even shot given its history.


58 posted on 12/15/2009 9:43:04 PM PST by fieldmarshaldj (~"This is what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps !"~~)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

Apparently they did put in an effort in 04 with Bev Kilmer, even having Dick Cheney go down there on her behalf. Still didn’t work out.


59 posted on 12/16/2009 9:21:41 AM PST by Galactic Overlord-In-Chief (Our Joe Wilson can take the Dems' Joe Wilson any day of the week)
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To: Galactic Overlord-In-Chief

Yeah, Kilmer was about the strongest candidate for us recently, although she was still outspent 2-to-1 (and she spent over a million), but 38% was a fairly poor showing overall for that sort of effort.


60 posted on 12/16/2009 5:16:34 PM PST by fieldmarshaldj (~"This is what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps !"~~)
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