Silver: Dems likely to lose seven Senate seats, gain none

Washington Examiner ^ | 01/23/10 | Michael Barone

[kingattax]

Nate Silver has unveiled his algorithms for rating the chances of each party in this year’s Senate races. This replaces his seat-of-the-pants ratings which seemed to me to be unduly optimistic for his side (the Democrats).

Silver’s numbers attempt to show the percentage likelihood of each party winning the seat, taking into account poll results, candidates’ ratings and the likelihood of candidates to win their parties’ nominations

[Former War Criminal]

If we could fine tune those algorithms just a bit more, there would be no need for elections...

...and the San Diego Chargers would be in the Super Bowl.

[DemforBush]

Indiana 37% - Not sure if the numbers are right, but I do think this year is the best shot the GOP will ever have against Evan "I'm a moderate, really I am!" Bayh.

New York 13%- I might be dead wrong, but I think the right GOP candidate would have better than a 13% chance of beating Gillibrand in NY.

California 21%-Picking off Boxer in California would be even sweeter than the Brown victory in Mass., but I have to agree it's still kind of a long shot.

Illinois 51%...I just don't know about that one. 50/50 seems about right to me.

Connecticut 1% - For the folks that live there: do you agree with the 1% chance rating? Is Blumenthal really perceived as that unstoppable?

[digger48]

I don’t know about any of that stuff, but if Mike Pence runs, Evan Bayh is in major trouble, too.

[HiTech RedNeck]

The Silver bullet

[Chet 99]

Candidate recruitment will play a big part.. For example, will Chris Shays run in CT? Will Pataki run in NY?

[I still care]

Sounds beautiful, but it’s way too early.

Anything can happen. Frankly, I expect a major terrorist attack soon. Obama has just totally set us up for one.

[goldstategop]

If the Democrats keep on going the way they are going, they will be lucky to hold their Senate losses to 7 seats. That would give them 52 seats, just one more than a majority. For that to happen, everything will have to break their way in the next ten months.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find only things evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelogus

[jmaroneps37]

It is amazing that Silver thinks Gillibrand is not gone in NYS. She is ACORN/Working Families Party up to her eye balls and former Gov. Pataki is + ten on her without having even announced. If Patooks wants it, the seat is his. I Larry Kudlow runs against Schumer Pataki will win be 15 points because Kudlow is big enough to tie Chuckie down.
If he runs it says Kudlow obviously is willing to take one for the team since he has a prison record. He won't win, but it a short “game” which is what is shaping up as the GOP “strategy” he can demand free coverage and get it. Upchuck can't be in two places at once. He can't help Gillibrand and fight Kudlow’s charges. I've done research on Schumer in other races and there is plenty.

As I said, I don't see Silver's call here at all.

[BCrago66]

Blumenthal is not unstoppable. The Republican just has to mash him the way Glenn Beck mashes him here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=goNw7cu1G3g

[randita]

The 72% likelihood of party change in Pennsylvania feels high to me Not to me. Sestak shows no signs of conceding the primary race to Specter, so there may be a knock down, drag out fight there with a lot of money spent on each side and the winning candidate going into the general election bruised and battered.

Toomey can soar above it all and keep his powder dry and his cash in pocket. Toomey has the right message for the times, it's a pro-business, pro-jobs, lower taxes, economic growth message. Pennsylvanians are fed up with Rendell for many reasons and are also fed up with the stuff that goes on in Harrisburg. There is a throw the bums out attitude and Toomey should benefit from that.

[A_Tradition_Continues]

Pence is an unknown in NWI. 1st Congressional District knows no republicans. 1st District is the 2nd most populated district in the state and includes cities like Gary.

[digger48]

Pence is an unknown in NWI. 1st Congressional District knows no republicans. 1st District is the 2nd most populated district in the state and includes cities like Gary.

The people in the 1st District aren't the only ones who get to vote, though. Monroe County and Marion County will be just as tough, but Mitch has won twice now, despite all that.

This is still a red state even if it swooned over the Kenyan in '08. That romance is long gone.