Posted on 01/24/2010 11:27:20 PM PST by kingattax
Nate Silver has unveiled his algorithms for rating the chances of each party in this years Senate races. This replaces his seat-of-the-pants ratings which seemed to me to be unduly optimistic for his side (the Democrats).
Silvers numbers attempt to show the percentage likelihood of each party winning the seat, taking into account poll results, candidates ratings and the likelihood of candidates to win their parties nominations
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...
If we could fine tune those algorithms just a bit more, there would be no need for elections...
...and the San Diego Chargers would be in the Super Bowl.
New York 13%- I might be dead wrong, but I think the right GOP candidate would have better than a 13% chance of beating Gillibrand in NY.
California 21%-Picking off Boxer in California would be even sweeter than the Brown victory in Mass., but I have to agree it's still kind of a long shot.
Illinois 51%...I just don't know about that one. 50/50 seems about right to me.
Connecticut 1% - For the folks that live there: do you agree with the 1% chance rating? Is Blumenthal really perceived as that unstoppable?
I don’t know about any of that stuff, but if Mike Pence runs, Evan Bayh is in major trouble, too.
The Silver bullet
Candidate recruitment will play a big part.. For example, will Chris Shays run in CT? Will Pataki run in NY?
Sounds beautiful, but it’s way too early.
Anything can happen. Frankly, I expect a major terrorist attack soon. Obama has just totally set us up for one.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find only things evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelogus
As I said, I don't see Silver's call here at all.
Blumenthal is not unstoppable. The Republican just has to mash him the way Glenn Beck mashes him here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=goNw7cu1G3g
Toomey can soar above it all and keep his powder dry and his cash in pocket. Toomey has the right message for the times, it's a pro-business, pro-jobs, lower taxes, economic growth message. Pennsylvanians are fed up with Rendell for many reasons and are also fed up with the stuff that goes on in Harrisburg. There is a throw the bums out attitude and Toomey should benefit from that.
Pence is an unknown in NWI. 1st Congressional District knows no republicans. 1st District is the 2nd most populated district in the state and includes cities like Gary.
The people in the 1st District aren't the only ones who get to vote, though. Monroe County and Marion County will be just as tough, but Mitch has won twice now, despite all that.
This is still a red state even if it swooned over the Kenyan in '08. That romance is long gone.
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