The Key House Races 2010 - 24 July Update - Big Republican Gains

KeyHouseRaces.com ^ | 24 July 2010 | Interceptpoint

[InterceptPoint]

Georgia Primary: Austin Scott won the GA-08 primary and will be the GOP nominee running against the incumbent Dem Jim Marshall in November.

The REALLY BIG NEWS is that  were 44 changes in our "Expert" ratings this week. We had major changes by Rothenberg,  a few by Election Projection (as usual), 4 from the mostly quiet Real Clear Politics and a few from Cook. Sabato and CQPolitics were silent this week. 

Here's the summary of the changes to our Experts' ratings:

• There were a total of 44 updates this week to the 91 Congressional races that we believe are truly in play this year.
• 37 were favorable to the Republicans
• 7 were favorable to the Democrats

Those changes moved our index to -.288 from last weeks -.353. That's the most favorable value of our index by far and is the largest change that we have recorded in a single week. This is due primarily to the large number of changes by Rothenberg in favor of the Republicans. The -.288 value means that the average rating of our "Experts" for the 91 races on our list is TOSS-UP but leaning D. If the value of the index gets into positive territory then we will have a Republican landslide in November. And remember, this index started out at -.585 back in April. That was a LEANS D average. Since then the trend has been a continuous re-evaluation by our "Experts' in favor of the Republicans. We expect that trend to continue.

Note that you can always see the latest changes and the current state of the "Expert" evaluations of all of the races on our Master List and an explanation of our methodology on the KeyHouseRaces Experts Page.

Just a reminder: Here is the full schedule for August Primaries:

August 3: Kansas, Michigan and Missouri

August 5: Tennessee

August 10: Colorado, Connecticut, Minnesota and a Georgia Runoff if necessary

August 17: Washington and Wyoming

August 24: Alaska, Arizona, Florida and Vermont

August 28: Louisiana

Here is the chart from our EXPERTS page for July 24th. Lots of RED in 4 of the 6 Experts columns. Those are the ones that have changed this week in favor of the Republicans.

District		Average	Average	Sabato	CQP	EP.com	Cook	Rothenberg	RCP	Sabato	CQP	EP.com	Cook	Rothenberg	RCP	District
AL	2	Toss-Up	0.0	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Leans D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	0	1	-1	0	0	AL	2
AR	1	Toss-Up	0.0	Toss-Up	Leans D	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	-1	1	0	0	0	AR	1
AR	2	Leans R	1.3	Leans R	Leans R	Mod R	Leans R	Likely R	Leans R	1	1	2	1	2	1	AR	2
AZ	1	Leans D	-1.0	Toss-Up	Likely D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	0	-2	-1	-1	-1	-1	AZ	1
AZ	5	Leans D	-0.8	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	AZ	5
AZ	8	Leans D	-0.7	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	0	AZ	8
CA	3	Leans R	1.3	Leans R	Leans R	Mod R	Leans R	Leans R	Likely R	1	1	2	1	1	2	CA	3
CA	11	Leans D	-0.8	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	CA	11
CA	47	Likely D	-2.5	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	-3	-2	-3	-2	-3	-2	CA	47
CO	3	Leans D	-1.3	Leans D	Likely D	Weak D	Leans D	Likely D	Leans D	-1	-2	-1	-1	-2	-1	CO	3
CO	4	Leans R	0.7	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Likely R	Leans R	0	0	1	0	2	1	CO	4
CT	4	Likely D	-1.8	Likely D	Leans D	Mod D	Likely D	Safe D	Leans D	-2	-1	-2	-2	-3	-1	CT	4
CT	5	Likely D	-1.8	Likely D	Likely D	Mod D	Likely D	Likely D	Leans D	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-1	CT	5
DE	AL	Leans D	-1.0	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	DE	AL
FL	2	Leans D	-0.7	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	0	FL	2
FL	8	Toss-Up	0.2	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	0	1	0	0	0	FL	8
FL	12	Likely R	2.5	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	2	2	3	2	3	3	FL	12
FL	22	Leans D	-1.5	Leans D	Likely D	Mod D	Likely D	Likely D	Toss-Up	-1	-2	-2	-2	-2	0	FL	22
FL	24	Toss-Up	0.3	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Leans R	Toss-Up	0	0	1	0	1	0	FL	24
FL	25	Leans R	1.5	Leans R	Leans R	Mod R	Likely R	Leans R	Likely R	1	1	2	2	1	2	FL	25
GA	8	Likely D	-2.0	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Leans D	Likely D	-2	-2	-3	-2	-1	-2	GA	8
HI	1	Toss-Up	-0.2	Leans D	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans D	-1	0	1	0	0	-1	HI	1
IA	3	Leans D	-1.0	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	IA	3
ID	1	Leans D	-0.8	Toss-Up	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	0	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	ID	1
IL	8	Likely D	-1.8	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Toss-Up	Leans D	-2	-3	-3	-2	0	-1	IL	8
IL	10	Toss-Up	0.2	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	0	1	0	0	0	IL	10
IL	11	Toss-Up	-0.2	Leans D	Leans D	Weak R	Leans D	Toss-Up	Leans R	-1	-1	1	-1	0	1	IL	11
IL	14	Toss-Up	-0.3	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans D	0	0	-1	0	0	-1	IL	14
IN	2	Leans D	-1.2	Likely D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	-2	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	IN	2
IN	8	Toss-Up	0.5	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Leans R	Toss-Up	Leans R	0	0	1	1	0	1	IN	8
IN	9	Toss-Up	-0.3	Toss-Up	Leans D	Weak D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	-1	-1	0	0	0	IN	9
KS	3	Leans R	0.7	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Leans R	Leans R	Leans R	0	0	1	1	1	1	KS	3
LA	2	Leans D	-1.3	Leans D	Likely D	Weak D	Toss-Up	Likely D	Likely D	-1	-2	-1	0	-2	-2	LA	2
LA	3	Likely R	1.7	Leans R	Leans R	Mod R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	1	1	2	2	2	2	LA	3
MA	10	Leans D	-0.7	Leans D	Leans D	Weak R	Leans D	Likely D	Toss-Up	-1	-1	1	-1	-2	0	MA	10
MD	1	Leans R	0.7	Leans R	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Leans R	Leans R	1	0	1	0	1	1	MD	1
MI	1	Toss-Up	0.2	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	0	1	0	0	0	MI	1
MI	7	Toss-Up	0.3	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	0	0	1	0	0	1	MI	7
MI	9	Likely D	-1.8	Leans D	Likely D	Mod D	Likely D	Safe D	Leans D	-1	-2	-2	-2	-3	-1	MI	9
MN	1	Likely D	-2.3	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	-2	-2	-3	-2	-3	-2	MN	1
MN	6	Likely R	2.3	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	2	2	3	2	3	2	MN	6
MO	4	Leans D	-1.0	Likely D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-Up	-2	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	MO	4
MS	1	Toss-Up	0.5	Leans R	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	1	0	1	0	0	1	MS	1
NC	8	Toss-Up	-0.5	Toss-Up	Leans D	Weak D	Toss-Up	Likely D	Leans R	0	-1	-1	0	-2	1	NC	8
ND	AL	Toss-Up	0.5	Leans R	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	1	0	1	0	0	1	ND	AL
NE	2	Likely R	2.0	Likely R	Likely R	Mod R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	2	2	2	2	2	2	NE	2
NH	1	Toss-Up	0.5	Leans R	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	1	0	1	0	0	1	NH	1
NH	2	Toss-Up	0.5	Leans R	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	1	0	1	0	0	1	NH	2
NJ	3	Leans D	-1.0	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	NJ	3
NM	1	Leans D	-1.3	Likely D	Leans D	Mod D	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	-2	-1	-2	-1	-1	-1	NM	1
NM	2	Leans R	0.7	Leans R	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Leans R	Leans R	1	0	1	0	1	1	NM	2
NV	3	Toss-Up	0.3	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	0	0	1	0	0	1	NV	3
NY	1	Leans D	-1.0	Likely D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-Up	-2	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	NY	1
NY	13	Leans D	-1.5	Likely D	Likely D	Mod D	Leans D	Likely D	Toss-Up	-2	-2	-2	-1	-2	0	NY	13
NY	19	Leans D	-0.8	Likely D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	-2	-1	-1	-1	0	0	NY	19
NY	20	Leans D	-1.3	Leans D	Likely D	Weak D	Leans D	Likely D	Leans D	-1	-2	-1	-1	-2	-1	NY	20
NY	23	Leans D	-1.0	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Likely D	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	-1	-2	0	NY	23
NY	24	Toss-Up	0.2	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	0	1	0	0	0	NY	24
NY	25	Likely D	-2.3	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	-2	-2	-3	-2	-3	-2	NY	25
NY	29	Leans R	1.2	Leans R	Toss-Up	Mod R	Leans R	Likely R	Leans R	1	0	2	1	2	1	NY	29
OH	1	Leans R	0.8	Leans R	Toss-Up	Mod R	Toss-Up	Leans R	Leans R	1	0	2	0	1	1	OH	1
OH	2	Safe R	2.8	Safe R	Safe R	Mod R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	3	3	2	3	3	3	OH	2
OH	13	Leans D	-1.3	Likely D	Likely D	Weak D	Leans D	Likely D	Toss-Up	-2	-2	-1	-1	-2	0	OH	13
OH	15	Leans R	0.7	Leans R	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Leans R	Leans R	1	0	1	0	1	1	OH	15
OH	16	Toss-Up	-0.5	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Toss-Up	Leans R	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	1	OH	16
OH	18	Leans D	-0.8	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	OH	18
PA	3	Toss-Up	-0.5	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	0	0	0	PA	3
PA	4	Likely D	-1.8	Likely D	Likely D	Mod D	Likely D	Likely D	Leans D	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-1	PA	4
PA	6	Likely R	1.7	Likely R	Leans R	Mod R	Likely R	Likely R	Leans R	2	1	2	2	2	1	PA	6
PA	7	Toss-Up	0.3	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	0	0	1	0	0	1	PA	7
PA	8	Leans D	-1.0	Toss-Up	Likely D	Weak D	Leans D	Likely D	Toss-Up	0	-2	-1	-1	-2	0	PA	8
PA	10	Leans D	-1.3	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Likely D	Likely D	Leans D	-1	-1	-1	-2	-2	-1	PA	10
PA	11	Toss-Up	0.2	Toss-Up	Leans D	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	0	-1	1	0	0	1	PA	11
PA	12	Leans D	-1.0	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Likely D	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	-1	-2	0	PA	12
PA	17	Likely D	-1.8	Likely D	Likely D	Mod D	Likely D	Likely D	Leans D	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-1	PA	17
SC	5	Toss-Up	-0.5	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	0	0	0	SC	5
SD	AL	Toss-Up	0.0	Toss-Up	Leans D	Weak R	Leans D	Toss-Up	Leans R	0	-1	1	-1	0	1	SD	AL
TN	4	Likely D	-2.2	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Leans D	-3	-2	-3	-2	-2	-1	TN	4
TN	6	Likely R	2.2	Leans R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	1	3	3	2	2	2	TN	6
TN	8	Toss-Up	0.5	Leans R	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	1	0	1	0	0	1	TN	8
TX	17	Toss-Up	0.2	Toss-Up	Leans D	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	0	-1	1	0	0	1	TX	17
TX	23	Likely D	-1.7	Likely D	Likely D	Mod D	Leans D	Likely D	Leans D	-2	-2	-2	-1	-2	-1	TX	23
VA	2	Toss-Up	0.2	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	0	1	0	0	0	VA	2
VA	5	Toss-Up	0.5	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Mod R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	0	0	2	0	0	1	VA	5
VA	9	Leans D	-1.0	Leans D	Leans D	Mod D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-2	-1	-1	0	VA	9
VA	11	Leans D	-1.2	Leans D	Likely D	Weak D	Leans D	Likely D	Toss-Up	-1	-2	-1	-1	-2	0	VA	11
WA	3	Toss-Up	0.2	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	0	1	0	0	0	WA	3
WA	8	Leans R	1.3	Leans R	Leans R	Mod R	Likely R	Leans R	Leans R	1	1	2	2	1	1	WA	8
WI	7	Toss-Up	-0.3	Toss-Up	Leans D	Weak D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	-1	-1	0	0	0	WI	7
WI	8	Leans D	-1.3	Likely D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Likely D	Leans D	-2	-1	-1	-1	-2	-1	WI	8
WV	1	Toss-Up	-0.2	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	0	-1	0	0	0	WV	1
District		Average	Average	Sabato	CQP	EP.com	Cook	Rothenberg	RCP	Sabato	CQP	EP.com	Cook	Rothenberg	RCP	District
Average		Toss-Up	-0.288	Toss-Up	Leans D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up
Updated		24-Jul-10		-0.411	-0.611	-0.100	-0.367	-0.389	0.144
Rating and Color Code			Average Expert
			Rating
			From	To
Safe D			-3	-2.5
Likely D			-2.5	-1.5
Leans D			-1.5	-0.5
Toss-Up			-0.5	0
Toss-Up			0	0.5
Leans R			0.5	1.5
Likely R			1.5	2.5
Safe R			2.5	3.5

[Political Junkie Too]

You don't know me, I don't know you. My circles are quite credible, as I'm sure are yours, but I wasn't insulting in how I approached you.

I did google your comments, hence my second post to you. I determined that the distinction was splitting hairs for the purpose here.

If you have an argument with the results of my post, then say so, but don't waste my time on terminology.

-PJ

[Free Vulcan]

One more for your list: Miller-Meeks in IA-02:

Polling data shows Miller-Meeks has made IA-2 one of the most competitive districts in the country

[spintreebob]

The chart shows CA -7 and IL -1. However, Fiorina has big upside and Boxer downside potential in CA.

In IL Kirk has only downside potential. He peaked a while ago. Kirk has spent his life telling others what they wanted to hear and/or white lies to make himself look good. Those white lies were minor. But from now to election day he will be plagued with the white-lie-of-the-week coming back to haunt him.

Of course, the Dem is no better with Obama hosting a fundraiser for the guy who squandered the money in the Obama children’s college fund.

NOTA is leading right now. The combine will not let a viable right wing contender on the ballot. So NOTA is likely to be a Green Party candidate. So the votes for the Green Candidate will actually be for NOTA.

[Political Junkie Too]

I agree with you about Fiorina (I live in California). I don't know about Illinois. All I can say is that these are the latest Rasmussen polls. I assume that future polls will show movements.

Also note that Nevada still shows a lead for Angle even though the MSM seems to indicate that Reid is surging. Also the same in Florida with Rubio vs. Crist.

That's why I'm getting these trends out now, so we can see the changes in predictions as we approach November.

-PJ

[InterceptPoint]

Brown carried MA 10 by 20 points and it leans democrat?
*****************
Well that’s the cumulative/average opinion of our ‘Experts’. But as you can see from the chart those opinions change - 44 times last week. So stay tuned, even liberal MA might swing our way.

[spintreebob]

Rubio, Angle, Paul ... all tea party challengers need at least 2 things:

Stay on message. When the Dems have won in the past it has mostly been by painting the GOP as mean spirited and by framing the campaign such that a vote against the Dem (eg Obama) is racist or some other form of mean-spiritedness.

When the GOP wins (eg Contract with America) it is about real issues and not what Clinton does with Monica. Monica and mean-spiritedness boost talkradio ratings but do not win elections.

The second thing conservative GOP candidates need is for us ... freepers, tea partiers, etc to go talk to our neighbors who are watching the ball game or American Idol. We should not try to convince them about some true but obscure issue, such as the Federal Reserve, we should try to get their vote by being friendly and become the friendly face of the candidate to counter the unfriendly image the other side tries to create.

Some would say money is a 3rd element of a winning campaign. Thyat is not my area of expertise.

[randita]

Okay. That makes sense.

[InterceptPoint]

Another is that using ensemble averages of data based on different sampling techniques is the oldest dumb mistake of sophomoric self proclaimed statisticians.

Well don't blame Political Junkie Too for that 'mistake'. I'll take credit for that one. But it is worth noting that this series of 'mistakes' results in a predicted Republican gain of 30 seats in the House. That's pretty much the consensus these days among the political types. So PJToo seems to have 'stumbled' on the right answer. Just lucky I guess.

I'm curious. How would you estimate the number of Republicans seats we are going to have in January 2011?

And one more: What do you think the 'sampling techniques' are? We have 6 experts and 6 opinions. We average those opinions. These guys are reading polls and making their call. I see nothing wrong with averaging those inputs. Subjective IN - Subjective OUT. We're all guessing right now. These guys are simply sampling the polls and the gossip and the funding and the historical data and drawing their conclusions. I wouldn't call this a 'sampling technique'.

[MontaniSemperLiberi]

You’re a dingaling.

If I posted Ensemble averages of future global average temperatures, would you say “That’s pretty much the consensus these days among the climate types”? I don’t think so.

I have no idea what the right answer is. We’ll just have to see. If I were to “predict” the results today, I’d go back and see who has been the best in the past and go with them. That, by most people’s judgment here, is Rasmussen. If I were to average the best prediction with the worst, would you say that was a better answer? Would you say that was “right” answer and you “stumbled upon” it? Well you just did.

Are your “results” even statistically stable? Have you checked?

Remember, you invited me into your discussion and are trying to have the last word.

[LS]

Are you still saying a gain of 30 for the GOP?

[InterceptPoint]

Yes. Best estimate right now is a 30 seat pickup. We need 39 seats and we need some margin. So I think we have quite a way to go. But the trend is in our favor. If it continues we will make it.

[florm15]

Thanks for the ping! :)

[potlatch]

Very good news I.P.

[jch10]

I don’t know any experts but FL-2 is not leaning D this time. The incumbent can’t win, in fact, he may get Primaried.

[InterceptPoint]

I don’t know any experts but FL-2 is not leaning D this time. The incumbent can’t win, in fact, he may get Primaried.
*****************************
You may be right. Rothenberg just moved FL-02 to Toss-Up this week. He smells something. RCP also rates it as Toss-Up. We need some polls. If they show the Dems in trouble the “Experts” will come around.

[randita]

I agree with you re FL-02. I’m not sure why the experts haven’t caught up with what’s going on down there.

It’s been reported in Politico that Boyd has spent $1.4 million already in his bid to stave off Al Lawson, who is attacking him from the left. Boyd voted for cap and trade AND health care reform, yet Lawson is attacking him for his “conservative” record.

A poll earlier this year showed Southerland (R) beating Boyd by double digits. If Boyd does manage to scrape by in the primary, he’s going to have a pretty empty piggy bank. I guess that’s why the DCCC has bought a bunch of airtime already in this market to defend this seat.

Lawson is not a good fit at all for this conservative district which voted for Bush twice and picked McCain by 9 over Obama. Guess we should be rooting for Lawson to win.

[Last Dakotan]

Make Nancy fly coach!

[Hush44]

Thanks, as always for ping, and all the work of the team!

A whoohoo for NY20, all the hard work of the campaign is starting to ‘show’ our headway. Last time, Sabato moved his ranking, this week 2 changes EP/Cook

NY20—
Chris Gibson for Congress
http://www.chrisgibsonforcongress.com/

FReepers, take a look at Chris, and send something if you can. We will turn this district back to RED

[Arthur Wildfire! March]

Quote:

There were a total of 44 updates this week to the 91 Congressional races that we believe are truly in play this year.

37 were favorable to the Republicans

7 were favorable to the Democrats

[sijay]

Please keep me on the list. Thanks.