Posted on 09/01/2010 8:57:26 PM PDT by dangus
Polls have been conducted in a small minority of districts, but there are still plenty to show that Republicans are poised to take control of Congress. (The more competitive districts are most likely to have polls taken in them, of course.) After checking Wikipedia, Real Clear Politics and googling the names of every remaining candidate in Republican-leaning districts with Democratic congressmen, I present the poll data to show Republicans already leading in plenty of districts to overwhelm the Democrats' current 39-seat majority. Based only on this data (excluding hundreds of districts with no polling found), I predict 52-60 seats gained. (I'd guesstimate that the Republicans could win an additional dozen or more unpolled districts.)
39 Districts where Republican challengers are already ahead:(Republicans listed first.)
AZ 8 Patton 45, Giffords 44 R+4
AR 1 Crawford 40, Causey 34 R+8
AR 2 Griffin 52, Elliott 35 R+5
CO 3 Tipton 49, Salazar 43 (internal) R+5
FL 2 Southerland 52, Boyd 37 R+6
FL 8 Long 46, Grayson 38 R+2 (Unpolled Webster beat Long in primary)
FL 22 West 44, Klein 42 D+1
FL 24 Miller 44, Kosmas 41 R+4
IL 8 Walsh 38, Bean 37 R+1
IL 10 Kinzinger 52, Halvorson 32 D+6
IL 14 Hultgren 44, Foster 37 R+1
IL 17 Schilling 45, Hare 32 D+3
IA 3 Zaun 51, Boswell 41 D+1
MI 1 Benishek 45, McDowell 29 MI +4
MI 13 Clarke 44, Cheeks-Kilpatrick 31 D+31
MI 7 Walberg 50, Schauer 40 R+2
MS 1 Nunnelee 50, Childers 42 R+14
NH 1 Giunta 42, Shea-Porter 38 D+0
NH 2 Bass 44, Swett 27 D+3
NM 1 Barela 51, Heinrich 45 D+5
NC 2 Ellmers 39, Etheridge 38 R+2
ND Berg 53, Pomeroy 44 R+10
OH 1 Chabot 47, Driehaus 45 D+1
OH 15 Stivers 49, Kilroy 44 D+1
OH 16 Renacci 49, Boccieri 35 R+4
PA 3 Kelly 52, Dahlkemper 38 R+3
PA 7 Meehan 47, Lentz 26 D+3
PA 10 Marino 52, Carney 37 R+8
PA 12 Burns 44, Critz 40 R+1
SD Noem 51, Herseth-Sandlin 42 R+9
TN 8 Fincher 47, Herron 37 R+6
TX 17 Flores 53, Edwards 41 R+20
TX 23 Canseco 43, Rodriguez 37
VA 2 Rigell 51, Nye 35 R+5
VA 5 Hurt 49, Perriello 43 R+5
VA 11 Fimian 40, Connolly 35 D+2
WA 3 Herrerra 54, Heck 41 D+0
WI 7 Duffy 42, Lassa 33 D+3
WI 8 Ribble 49, Kagan 39 R+2
5 more open seats in Republican leaning districts
TN 6 R+13 (no polls, but open seat)
LA 3 R+12 (no polls, but open seat)
IN 8 R+8 (no polls, but open seat)
WV 1 R+8 (no polls, but open seat)
NY 29 R+5 (no polls, but open seat)
----
16 districts with Republicans close to or tied with Democrat incumbents, with the incumbent well below 50%
CA 11 Harmer 41, McNerney 42
CT 4 Dabicella 42 , Himes 46 D+6
GA 8 Scott 39, Marshall 44 R+10
IN 2 Wlaorski 44, Donnelly 46 R+2
MD 1 Kratovil 44/36, Harris 39/39 R+13
MO 4 Hartzler 42, Skelton 45 R+8
NV 3 Titus 43/42/44/40, Heck 42/40/49/40 D+2 (4 polls showing see-sawing leads)
NM 2 Pearce 46, Teague 47 R+6
NY 1 Altschuler 45, Bishop 47 D+0
NC 7 Pantano 42, McIntyre 45 R+5
NC 8 Johnson 35, Kissell 41R+2
NC 11 Miller 44, Shuler 45 R+6
OH 13 Ganley 41, Sutton 43 D+5
OH 18 Gibbs 43, Space 43 R+7 (internal)
SC 5 Mulvaney 41, Spratt 43 R+7
VA 9 Boucher 42, Griffith 39 R+11
---
6 Republican-leaning districts with Democrats still leading (Democrat listed first)
AL 2 Bright 54, Roby 30 (Feb) R+16
ID 1 Minnick 37, Labrador 27 R+17
IN 9 Jill 41, Young 34 R+6
KY 6 Chandler 46, Barr 32 R+9
OK 2 Boren 45, Thompson 25 R+14
WV 3 Rahall 53, Maynard 37 R+6
(The letter-and-number value after each poll result indicates the Cook Presidential Vote Index for the district. This is a measure of how much Democrat- or Republican- leaning a district is, based on 2004 and 2008 votes for president. For instance, "R+6" means that the district votes 6% more Republican, on average, than the average district. All poll results are the most recent, independent polls, where available.)
Please post any poll data you have, to help make this list more complete.
I have a difficult time believing that one. As disgusting as it may sound, Boucher practically 'owns' that district. I've never seen him win by anything less than 15 points, and that was in 2004. I was happy just to see the GOP even challenge him.
Just anecdotal here, but I HAVE seen LOTS of Griffith signs everywhere, and hardly any Boucher signs. I know this means nothing, because in '04, there were LOTS of Kerry signs(Kerry lost by 30 points in the locality where I saw lots of his signs), but I never recall seeing a challenger to Boucher with lots of signs up. I also saw a Boucher TV add earlier this week. I've NEVER seen him run a Television ad. His TV as was almost a comedy, if not just sad. He was remarking on all of the jobs he has "created". Anyone that has lived here for more than a few years knows that this area has been literally BLEEDING jobs. I saw him in the grocery store not long after he voted FOR Cap & Trade, and I almost yelled at him. lol The ONLY thing he has done is bring home pork since the dems took CONgress, and always manages to get his mug on the newspaper when it happens. Who knows... Maybe Boucher doesn't know how to run a seriously contested race, because he's never had one...
If the republicans can get within single digits in this district, it truly will be a 'wave' type election. If the republicans can get a win out of this district, it will be a Tsunami of epic proportions!
That's why this election is so important. If our guy or gal is ahead by 5-10 pts and loses, then it's on to Revolution II while we still can. . .
I’m all ears, if you have any poll data to tell me.
In FL8, Todd Long lost the Repub primary to long-time Fla. legislator Daniel Webster. Race against Grayson already dubbed “The devil and Daniel Webster”! Webster is gentlemanly, reserved - could not be more of a contrast to the bombastic, unhinged a**hole Grayson!
Haven’t seen any polls yet re Webster v Grayson.
Americans keep voting for the same system expecting a different result.That’s called insanity.GOOD LUCK!
I double-checked, and found a source saying 52-39. That seems unlikely, though, since that leaves only 9% undecided. I’ll definitely see what I can find before I post another thread, probably in a couple of weeks.
Jesse Kelly is the Rep nominee. You must be using old data.
Thanks. I hadn’t found that one (probably because it was an internal).
Thanks. I tried to find out when a polled candidate lost (Long v Grayson, for instance).
Far to early to be declaring victory, son. There is still a lot that can happen between now and November, and you should never underestimate the ability of the human mind to believe whatever it wants, despite the evidence to the contrary.
Thanks. Maybe in a later edition. So much work! But KeyHouseRaces was a great resource... 4 more polls!
No one is declaring victory. I’m merely pointing out the possible.
"""""Recent polling conducted by Public Opinion Strategies shows that Michigan's 15th Congressional Race has become much more competitive. The poll is clear: Dingell is vulnerable.
When asked if the election were held today, data shows that Rep. John Dingell (D-MI) is only up 51%-42% on Dr. Rob Steele.
Dr. Steele surges ahead when respondents were informed that he is a practicing cardiologist, he has helped build his heart clinic from the ground up, that he is a first-time candidate, and that his top priority will be to stop the out-of-control spending in Washington. Dr. Steele takes the lead over Dingell 46%-41%.
That district is a D+13 district with the City of Ann Arbor in it.
Don’t get me wrong. I like the guy too. I’d like to see the GOP pick up the seat, but could do a lot worse than Minnick.
I CERTAINLY hope those numbers were accurate!
Please do keep us updated!
Switch parties ? Have you seen Minnick’s voting record ? He got a 56% liberal rating in 2009. He’d never win renomination as a Republican. The guy in AL, Parker Griffith, scored a 44% liberal rating and lost renomination handily after switching parties.
Florida district 22. At last Allen West is ahead! Sending a little check...
Perhaps I have fallen away from my determined realism into a pit of pessimism, but I still can’t see a solid reason that voters will vote “FOR” Republicans wholesale in November. Republicans continue to try to give voters reasons NOT to vote for them on a national level by and large. Were it not for a few outstanding Conservatives and the upstart Tea Parties and their candidates propping UP the Republicans in the primaries, the Republicans would be just as limp and impotent as they were in 2008.
Additionally, as BAD an August — yea, WHOLE SUMMER — as Obama and his Democrats have had, the leaders seemingly haven’t cared. Why? Well, they are ideological zealots for one thing, that’s sure. But it’s more than that. They believe they STILL have a lock on Congress. Through massive fraud, media bias, legal manuevering, and national Republican weakness and unwillingness to fight their corruption of the election process, they believe they can retain Congress , even if by only a hare’s breath margin.
The Republicans get 30-38 House seats, 6-7 Senate seats — no more. If by some miracle they DO get one house, it will be the House — but they will be able to co-opt/buy enough RINO’s to continue to force thru Obama’s agenda virtually unhindered while using the Republicans as their whipping boy’s for the 2010 election to great effect.
Gosh I hope I’m wrong — but the Republicans have NEVER failed to make me RIGHT since 1996 with their failures — and the Democrats have ALWAYS proven me right with their diabolical and treacherous acts to gain their own power at the peril of the nation. Why should I believe it will change now?
Murphy has a wonderful career ahead of him as a slip’n’fall lawyer.
His political career is over.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.