Posted on 09/04/2010 8:33:54 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
This weeks news:
It was a YET ANOTHER BIG WEEK for our "Experts" with a total of 37 upgrades to the races on the KHR Master List. It was a 37 to ZERO shutout - none of the upgrades favored the Dems. There were major changes from Sabato and Cook, and a few from EP and RCP. CQ Politics and Rothenberg were silent.
BUT THE REALLY BIG NEWS THIS WEEK was: Larry Sabato predicting a 47 seat pickup for the Republicans. Election Projection followed a day later with a projection of a 41 seat pickup. We need 39 seats to retake the House so both Sabato and EP are now predicting a Republican majority next year. That story was big news, at least with FoxNews and Charlie Cook.
We are now listing the Pickup Projections on the Home Page at KHR. At this point we are showing projections by Dick Morris (don't laugh, Morris thinks we will pickup 60 to 80 seats), Sabato, EP, CQP, Rothenberg plus our own KHR projection.
We've updated the format of our polls page which is now referred to as the MOST RECENT POLLS page. The polls are starting to come in, most but not all are favorable to the Republicans and we now have polls for about 90% of the races on our Master List where we have completed the primary cycle.
So please send us links to any poll data that you think we've missed. You can always see our latest 3 polls on the KHR Home Page and, as noted above, we also list the most recent poll for each district on the KHR MOST RECENT POLLS page.
The Master List has been updated to include the winners of all completed primaries The "Race at a Glance" entries on the KHR Home Page have also been updated to include the Louisiana primary. All funding data, polls and "Expert Ratings" have been updated as well. Our normal procedure is to update the financial data and Expert Ratings once a week but to update the poll data as we find it.
Here's the summary of the changes to our Experts' ratings:
Those changes moved our index to -.100 from last weeks -.177. That's a very big jump and reflects the fact that the Republicans won this weeks rating upgrade race by a huge margin. Take a look at our KeyHouseRaces Experts Page to see where the changes in ratings were this week - nothing but RED entries. For the newbies, the -.100 figure means that the average "Expert Rating" for every race on our list is rated a Toss-Up but slightly favoring the Dems. If the index gets into positive territory (where it seems to be heading) then the average rating for all 93 races would be Toss-Up with a Republican tilt.
Note that you can always see the latest changes and the current state of the "Expert" evaluations of all of the races on our Master List and an explanation of our methodology on the KeyHouseRaces Experts Page
We added a new page a couple of weeks ago to show the Master List in a ranked order and there is now a link to this page on the KeyHouseRaces Home Page. The ranking is based on the average Expert Rating of each district by our six "Experts" with the Most likely Republican winners at the top and the most likely Dem winners at the bottom. The fight for control of the House is in the middle of this list where the Toss-Up races meet the Leans Ds. That's the ones we have to win.
You can see the ranked version of the Master List HERE .
Just a reminder: Here is the schedule for all the remaining Primaries:
September 14: District of Columbia, Delaware, Massachusetts, Maryland, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island and Wisconsin
September 18: Hawaii
Conversely, I counted very few signs for Boucher, which tells me that he may indeed be in real trouble. As I've noted on these threads, I previously did not have a high opinion of Griffith or his chances of defeating Boucher in November, but after seeing what I saw first hand back home, I believe that he may very well carry the day.
...a 37 to ZERO shutout -- none of the upgrades favored the Dems.
Thanks for the ping!
Such is the scale of the expected losses, that according to local polls, Democrats are on course to lose the governorships of left-leaning states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania..............and may be vulnerable in Illinois, long a Dem party bastion, and home to Ohaha and his WH crew.
" Holy Allah. Illinois? Gone? Get that little twerp Rahm in here. Him and his permanent Democrat majority."
BTTT
Wow Fitzpatrick leading Murphy,thanks InterceptPoint.
Your list is too small. There are many more in play. I know you have a system but the last month will double your list.
Wow, I hope it’s true in Pa-12 with Burns over Critz. That snivelling Critz was on John Murtha’s staff. He got elected in the special election in May by running like he was Ronald Reagan in his commercials. A lot of us know it’s all lies. Hopefully the rest of Pa-12 is waking up and Tim Burns gets elected. A solid conservative.
Two months before a special election rematch in southwest Pennsylvania, Republican Tim Burns is sporting a five-point lead over Congressman Mark Critz (D-12), according to a GOP poll memo obtained by pa2010.com.
The memo from pollster Gene Ulm of Public Opinion Strategies says that a survey of 400 likely voters conducted late last month found Burns garnering 48 percent of the vote, compared to 43 percent for Critz. But the margin of error is 4.9 percent, making the race effectively a dead heat.
The full survey questions and crosstabs were not available, making it impossible to independently assess the merits of the poll. But the results track closely with a detailed survey that was recently released by by the conservative group American Action Network.
Internal GOP polls also saw Burns winning in the days before the May 18 special election, but Critz ended up winning by more than seven points. After the Critz win, some Republicans began to think the rematch was a lost cause. But indicators of lagging economic growth that have Democrats worried and Burns’ ability to pour loads of his own cash into the race—if he chooses to do so—have kept the seat in play.
The poll memo, which was moving through political circles Thursday and was also reported by CQ Politics [1], says President Obama continues to suffer from low approval ratings in the district, where conservative-leaning Democrats have long held sway.
I am so apprehensive about joining the Gloating Brigade before Nov 3, but I “tingle” with excitement at the very thought of Nancy Pelosi having to fly commercial again !!!!
Very disappointed that you even have Alabama 2nd in there with a poll from February!
Why bother? So much has changed. This was BEFORE the dems even passed Obama’s health care! And Roby wasn’t even the Republican nominee. The primary wasn’t until June 2nd and that required another vote due to a runoff. In February the Republican candidates had only begun the fight against each other.
Bobby Bright does not lead by 54% to 30% on Labor day; no way!
My suggestion: Leave this one out unless you get a newer poll.
Saturday, September 04, 2010
10 Congressional Districts That Could Go From D to R With Your Help
Posted by: Hugh Hewitt
http://hughhewitt.com/blog/g/9165c062-aceb-4f78-9969-3697c92c51dd
(Pls click link to access important links here.)
It bugs me too. I’ll take it down. But I’m really surprised that there hasn’t been a new poll.
It bugs me too. I’ll take it down. But I’m really surprised that there hasn’t been a new poll.
Using the expert ratings above, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:
| Week | GOP House Seats P10 |
GOP House Seats EV |
GOP House Seats P90 |
Probability of 218 |
GOP Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-Apr-10 | 199 | 204.77 | 210 | 0.18% | 25 |
| 16-Apr-10 | 199 | 205.09 | 211 | 0.22% | 26 |
| 22-Apr-10 | 200 | 205.28 | 211 | 0.37% | 26 |
| 01-May-10 | 201 | 206.22 | 212 | 0.73% | 27 |
| 08-May-10 | 201 | 206.33 | 212 | 0.66% | 27 |
| 19-Jun-10 | 203 | 208.44 | 214 | 2.29% | 29 |
| 10-Jul-10 | 203 | 208.49 | 214 | 2.43% | 29 |
| 17-Jul-10 | 203 | 208.49 | 214 | 2.34% | 29 |
| 24-Jul-10 | 203 | 209.25 | 215 | 3.37% | 30 |
| 31-Jul-10 | 203 | 209.06 | 215 | 2.96% | 30 |
| 07-Aug-10 | 203 | 209.15 | 215 | 3.11% | 30 |
| 14-Aug-10 | 204 | 209.33 | 215 | 3.33% | 30 |
| 21-Aug-10 | 204 | 209.86 | 216 | 4.47% | 30 |
| 28-Aug-10 | 205 | 210.91 | 217 | 7.03% | 31 |
| 04-Sep-10 | 206 | 211.88 | 218 | 10.45% | 32 |
Alternatively, below is a model that uses the most recent poll instead of the expert assessment, when there is one. I "expire" the poll if it is greater than 60 days old and revert back to the expert assessment until a new poll is taken. If the trend is moving downward, I suspect it is because a poll expired and the expert asssessment is lagging public opinion.
This week, the polls cover 47% of the 93 races being tracked. 44 polls are being used out of 63 that were captured, for a poll utilization of 70%.
Using the expert ratings above and recent poll data, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:
| Week | GOP House Seats P10 |
GOP House Seats EV |
GOP House Seats P90 |
Probability of 218 |
GOP Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31-Jul-10 | 207 | 212.12 | 217 | 8.64% | 33 |
| 07-Aug-10 | 206 | 211.07 | 216 | 4.66% | 32 |
| 14-Aug-10 | 206 | 211.04 | 216 | 5.02% | 32 |
| 21-Aug-10 | 207 | 211.6 | 216 | 6.03% | 32 |
| 28-Aug-10 | 211 | 215.2 | 220 | 25.97% | 36 |
| 04-Sep-10 | 213 | 216.82 | 231 | 41.43% | 37 |
And in the Senate...
The race took some interesting turns this week as West Virginia came into play. The historically safe seat is now within 6% of being taken from Joe Manchin by John Raese. Colorado slipped a bit as Ken Buck dropped 2% against Michael Bennet. Pennsylvania similarly slipped by 3% as Joe Sestak gained some ground on Pat Toomey. This brings Pennsylvania back within the margin of error. Ohio rejoins the group too, as Lee Fisher also brought the race back withi the margin of error against Rob Portman. A first-time entry is Alaska, now that Joe Miller has upset Lisa Murkowski for the GOP nomination. The big news is in Washington state, where Dino Rossi has flip-flopped again with Patty Murray, retaking the lead with a slight margin. This is enough to add another predictive seat for the Republicans.
Most of Rasmussen's polls have the races outside the margin of error, but for those within the MOE, here are the movements during the past week and the separation in the polls.
Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:
| Week | GOP Senate Seats P10 |
GOP Senate Seats EV |
GOP Senate Seats P90 |
Probability of 51 |
GOP Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17-Jul-10 | 47 | 48.84 | 50 | 6.95% | 7 |
| 24-Jul-10 | 47 | 48.95 | 50 | 7.69% | 7 |
| 31-Jul-10 | 47 | 48.18 | 50 | 1.29% | 7 |
| 07-Aug-10 | 47 | 48.13 | 50 | 1.46% | 7 |
| 14-Aug-10 | 47 | 48.46 | 50 | 2.92% | 7 |
| 21-Aug-10 | 47 | 48.69 | 50 | 3.05% | 7 |
| 28-Aug-10 | 47 | 48.86 | 50 | 5.88% | 7 |
| 04-Sep-10 | 48 | 49.21 | 51 | 14.19% | 8 |
All the way around, it was a great week for Republicans.
-PJ
Now if we could blow away the gerrymandering in California....for the State Assemby ...which the RINO Republicans agreed to.
I just updated the KHR Pickup Listings. BTW, just in case there was any doubt, you are the source for the KHR Pickup Projection on the home page.
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