Posted on 09/14/2011 10:09:27 PM PDT by Antoninus
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: September 14, 2011
Mary Beth Hutchins or Elizabeth Ray at 703-683-5004
WEPRIN VOTE FOR GAY MARRIAGE COST HIM SEAT IN CONGRESS
Washington –The National Organization for Marriage (NOM) today released a “flash” survey conducted yesterday among voters of New York’s 9th Congressional District which demonstrates that David Weprin’s support of same-sex marriage was a major factor in his loss to Republican Bob Turner.
“This survey demonstrates what many people have been saying for a long time – David Weprin’s vote in favor of same-sex marriage cost him election to the US House,” said Brian Brown, president of the National Organization for Marriage. “NOM funded a major independent expenditure campaign in this race and the survey shows that marriage was a major factor in the race and cost Weprin the election.” The election of Republican Bob Turner marks the first time this district has been represented by a Republican since the early 1920s.
The survey by QEV Analytics interviewed 251 actual or highly likely voters in the NY 9th Congressional District and concluded just as the polls closed last evening. It found the following:
Fifty percent (50%) of district voters believe that marriage should only be between one man and one woman; while only 38% of voters disagree (13% didn’t express an opinion). Marriage supporters include 88% of Orthodox Jews, 53% of Catholics and 47% of other Christians. There is a high correlation between a person’s position on marriage and their vote between Turner and Weprin. Those who agree marriage should only be between a man and a woman voted for Turner 81% - 19%. Turner won Orthodox Jews 91% - 9%; Catholics by 72%-28%; Other Christians 53% - 47%. Weprin won among non-Orthodox Jews 69% - 29%; among Other/None/DK 76%-24%.
Moreover, among those who agree with the traditional definition of marriage, 44% said Weprin’s position was a factor in their vote, while 29% of those who disagree said his position was a factor. Voters told the pollster that David Weprin’s position on same-sex marriage was a specific factor in the voting decision of 72% of Orthodox Jews, 29% of Other Jews, 27% of Catholics, 33% of Other Christians, 27% of other/None/DK.
“When the New York legislature voted to redefine marriage, NOM vowed that we would hold those legislators accountable. This is what happened last night,” Brown said. “Legislators were sold a bill of goods when they were told by Andrew Cuomo, Michael Bloomberg and the Human Rights Campaign (HRC) that they could redefine marriage and suffer no political consequences. All you have to do is look at David Weprin’s shocking loss to Bob Turner to understand that voting for same-sex marriage has consequences. Weprin just lost one of the most Democratic Congressional seats in the country in large part because of his vote to redefine marriage. Cuomo, Bloomberg and the HRC couldn’t save him and neither will they be able to save other legislators when it comes time for them to face voters.”
QEV derived the survey sample from a random selection of registered voters in the district most likely to vote in a special election. They carefully monitored the age distribution of the obtained sample so that it matched the age distribution of those likely voters. They weighted the obtained results so that these precisely matched the actual vote result.
The survey sample was 13% Orthodox Jewish, 25% Other Jewish, 36% Catholic, 12% Other Christian, 14% Other Faiths + No Faith + No Response. The margin of sampling error for Orthodox Jews on the ballot question is +/- 10%, which means that actual result of the ballot question could theoretically be as close as 81% Turner/19% Weprin.
I’d LIKE this to be true, but Weiner was very pro-gay marriage. I highly doubt he wouldn’t have been re-elected easily were it not for his sexcapades.
“So a self-serving survey by the National Organization for Marriage lets Obama and Schumer off the hook. What a nice gift for the press corps.”
It is rare that a single issue will generate a major upset - the donkey in this case got caught up in a “perfect storm” of problems: 1) the Obama fail on the economy (and policy in general); 2) the administration’s (and by extension, the Democrat Party’s) hostility to the Jewish state; and 3) the homosexual marriage fiasco. You might even throw in some residual disgust at the Weiner scandal.
I have no hard evidence, but I suspect the results would’ve been different if only one of these issues was in play - but with all three / four, we end up with a Turner victory.
“Basically mostly kosher Dems, with the appearance of hard right on Israel but center left on everything else.”
It’s not that are necessarily *for* gays but they just don’t care if someone votes for it, if they are good on other issues. So they will support someone like Giuliani for president with no problems.
“I’d LIKE this to be true, but Weiner was very pro-gay marriage. I highly doubt he wouldn’t have been re-elected easily were it not for his sexcapades.”
Republicans didn’t even bother running anyone against him for many years. And those that did were ‘Mickey Mouse’ candidates that weren’t serious.
There was a very strong grassroots effort in the Jewish community but NOM gave the cause a badly needed professional organization to reach out to everybody.
I know this community. This issue was white hot.
“Weprin won among non-Orthodox Jews 69% - 29%; among Other/None/DK 76%-24%. “
Young Israel member Weprin gets the atheist vote. FAIL
Small sample, yes BUT notice there has been NO movement away from Democrats among secular Jews. There is NO reason for Democrats to panic over losing Jewish voters because they are NOT. Jews still have not learned their lesson.
...and their definition of a "truce" is when only ONE side gives up........
I’m absolutely sure his “gay ‘marriage’” vote highly played into it. This horrendous vote ticked off a LOT of New Yorkers. NOM has declared war on Legislators who did. Good for them!!!
Attention GOP...
Lesson from Massachusetts from last year:
It is NOT a winning strategy to drive away your base by attempting to win over people that will NEVER vote for you anyway......
April 8, 2009
Mass. Republican Party Chairman says party will no longer oppose same-sex “marriage”, abortion, other “social issues”
http://www.massresistance.com/docs/gen/09b/nassour/index.html
April 21, 2010
Mass GOP convention nominates most extreme pro-gay Governor & Lt. Governor candidates in history
http://www.massresistance.org/docs/gen/10b/gop_convention/index.html
Aug 4, 2010
Charlie Baker & Richard Tisei: a pro-family nightmare
http://www.massresistance.org/docs/govt10/election10/baker_tisei/index.html
Nov 1, 2010
Republican Lt. Gov. candidate Richard Tisei promises gay newspaper he’ll push homosexual agenda on several fronts
http://www.massresistance.org/docs/govt10/election10/baker_tisei/tisei_promises_gay_agenda.html
Nov 4, 2010
Mass. Republicans lose ALL statewide & Congressional races
http://www.massresistance.org/docs/govt10/election10/general/results_statewide.html
Nov 5, 2010
Mass. Republican Party’s RINO strategy a big part of election losses in top state races
http://www.massresistance.org/docs/govt10/election10/gop_strategy/index.html
In one of the most liberal districts in New York?
Somehow I think it’s more complex than that.
I really think a wrench of some kind was thrown into their election fraud machine this time, for whatever reason.
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On a thread yesterday I saw a photo of Weprin "celebrating" at a Perv Pride Parade. He spat in the face of every person in his district with a moral compass. I say - HA HA and may this be indicative of future elections, all over the US!
sample size too small to be significant””
Really, so tell us what size of sample is required?
NOM should stifle themselves. NY-09 happened because of Obama, not gay marriage!
You are ABSOLUTELY CORRECT my friend!!! People have been so terrified of the fascist techniques of the leftists that they’ve lost their courage and sense!
(note my tagline...!!!)
Generally you need a sample size of at least 400 (larger for larger overall populations) to have reasonable confidence that you haven’t run across an unrepresentative sample population.
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