Florida poll puts Romney up two points over …

Hot Air ^ | 29 Sep 2011 | Ed Morrissey

[mandaladon]

Maybe that P5 straw poll in Florida had more significance than some thought. A new poll by Survey USA of likely Florida primary voters shows Mitt Romney ahead in the GOP nomination race at 27%, but the second-place finisher comes within the margin of error — and it’s not Rick Perry:

In the Florida Republican Primary for President, Mitt Romney at 27% edges Herman Cain at 25%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV Tampa. Rick Perry finishes 3rd with 13%, others further back. The Primary is tentatively, and controversially, scheduled for 4 months from today, on 01/31/12,

Romney is strong among older voters, women, moderates and in Southeast Florida. Cain is strong among men, younger voters, Tea Party members, affluent voters and in Northeast Florida. Perry is strong among those who say they are “very conservative,” among those who attend religious services regularly, among Evangelicals and in Northwest Florida.

Newt Gingrich at 6%, and Michelle Bachmann and Ron Paul at 5%, effectively tie for 4th place. Jon Huntsman, in 7th place, finishes ahead of Rick Santorum.

Survey USA has a lot more credibility than Zogby’s online interactive polls do, and Florida is a significant state. This survey took place Saturday through Tuesday, and SUSA culled 500 likely voters from almost 1400 responses on both landlines and cellphones. I’d be interested to see how the general-survey numbers turned out, and how each day’s tally worked out. Even apart from that, though, Herman Cain obviously made a big impression on Florida voters in the debate as well as at the straw poll.

[mandaladon]

Cain ended up winning a couple of key demographics, especially the age demos of 35-49 and 50-64, leading Romney by double digits in each. Romney won seniors handily, 34/19 over Cain. Cain won Hispanic voters 22/16 over Romney. Cain won men (32/22) and Romney won women (31/17). Not surprisingly, Cain also won self-identified Tea Party voters, although not by as much as one might think at 34/26. Romney won the lower- and middle-income voters, but Cain edged him among those making more than $80K, 28/27./////////////////////

I expect a big surprise in Florida !!!

[Brookhaven]

But we know Herman Cain can’t win.

As opposed to Mitt Romney, because he won a single political race with 49% of the vote, then couldn’t run for reelection, because he was polling below 30%. That’s the kind of political experience that makes someone a legitimate candidate.

[ZULU]

27% versus 25% is not statistically significant.

I hope Cain beats Romney’s butt!!!

[Netizen]

woohoo this is good news!

[Lady Lucky]

Oh, Romney can win the nomination. And unless Palin jumps in, he will; you can bank on it.
The question is whether he can win in November.

[Rational Thought]

This must mean the field is now set....Cain vs. Romney.

[Liz]

FLA POLL: Mitt Romney 27%; Herman Cain 25%.

Rick Perry a lame 3rd at 13%, others further back.

[Presbyterian Reporter]

Romney leads.

That should make the Charlie Crist Republican Establishment extremely happy.

I was in a doctor’s waiting room last week and there was Charlie Crist on the TV doing his “For the People” gig for Morgan and Morgan.

[so_real]

I'm sure the hand-wringers and bed-wetters will be along any minute now to tell us that Cain can't win and to sarcastically thank us for clearing the way for Romney. Some people are just too afraid to make a difference.

[jonrick46]

Florida has done a big favor to Governor Rick Perry. It has given him that proverbial kick in the rear to get his act together. If he responds to this feedback, he will be a better candidate and learn the right stuff to take down the clown.

[Diogenesis]

In a REAL VOTE, loser Romney comes in third.

So the MSM and Team Romney invent another faux poll.

BS. Romney is third. and Mr. Cain leads.

[109ACS]

Raising Cain!

[Leep]

The deal is far from sealed but its looking good for Mr Cain.
I hope he is prepared for the unbeleivable crap they (media and the lefty groups) will throw at him. They may even attack his family?
He can take a lesson from Palin there.
Gooo team!

[Leep]

The deal is far from sealed but its looking good for Mr Cain.
I hope he is prepared for the unbeleivable crap they (media and the lefty groups) will throw at him. They may even attack his family?
He can take a lesson from Palin there.
Gooo team!

[GonzoGOP]

There is an important lesson here. Romney can't break 30%. Even if he knocks out a candidate the votes don't go to him, the just find another candidate, who isn't Romney. The quick and total collapse of Perry is the worst thing that could have happend to him. Now the field is cleard for Cain, a real outsider and big "C" conservative.

Once Cain becomes the "Not Romney" watch Perry's numbers go to around 5%. Nobody really liked him, he just appeared to be the best among the "Not Romney's" available. Just as it was Bachman before Perry got into the race.

Cain is the penultimate outsider (the ultimate isn't running). He is high risk, high reward, and conservative primary voters are by nature, conservative. So the complete collapse of the safe bets may be the best thing that ever happened to the conservative movement. It made us stop and listen to Cain. And all he had to do was get people to pay attention to what he was saying to become the standard bearer of the conservative movement.

[Homer_J_Simpson]

Oh, Romney can win the nomination. And unless Palin jumps in, he will; you can bank on it.

Why do you think Palin would do better than Cain?

[bwc2221]

The Perry Fangirls, who will be here any minute, are trying to convince us that Mr. Open Borders is the only Republican that can stop Romney even though he is so incoherent he has to have his wife explain his positions, has a history of supporting illegal aliens and is buried up to his neck in “pay to play” schemes.

We can do better than these two pukes. We must do better.

[org.whodat]

Kick in the butt, LOL, that noise you hear is the door closing on Perry's trash can.

[iowamark]

POST OF THE DAY!

[comebacknewt]

"Fangirls", huh? Very nice.

I will just say that while I like most everything about Herman Cain, he hasn't yet been through the anal exam that others have. It is possible his stock will fall just as quickly as it rose.

And, yes, FWIW I still think the primary outcome of Perry's destruction was that Romney's chances of securing our nomination skyrocketed.