Skip to comments.Obama Poised To Win 2012 Election With 303 Electoral Votes: The Signal Forecast
Posted on 02/16/2012 5:38:08 PM PST by blam
Obama Poised To Win 2012 Election With 303 Electoral Votes: The Signal Forecast
By David Rothschild & Chris Wilson
Feburary 16, 2012
With fewer than nine months to go before Election Day, The Signal predicts that Barack Obama will win the presidential contest with 303 electoral votes to the Republican nominee's 235.
How do we know? We don't, of course. Campaigns and candidates evolve, and elections are dynamic events with more variables than can reasonably be distilled in an equation. But the data--based on a prediction engine created by Yahoo! scientists--suggest a second term is likely for the current president. This model does not use polls or prediction markets to directly gauge what voters are thinking. Instead, it forecasts the results of the Electoral College based on past elections, economic indicators, measures of state ideology, presidential approval ratings, incumbency, and a few other politically agnostic factors.
We'll dip into what the model says in a moment, but first a note about models in general: there are a lot of them, from complex equations generated by nerdy academics (like the team at The Signal) to funny coincidences like the Redskins Rule, which holds that the incumbent party keeps the White House if Washington's football team wins its last home game. (This is true in 17 of the last 18 elections!) Every year, some of these models are right and some are wrong, and the difference is often just luck. As a result, models get a bad rap as being very good at predicting the past and lousy at predicting the future.
The following chart shows our predictions for each state in the general election, based on this model
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
Based On My Model....it says that Jim Robinson will win an unprecedent term as president of the US when most citizens of each state write-in his name on their ballot.
Now, someone has to go refute this claim, eh?
(The algorithms that are driving my (model) prediction are copyrighted and cannot be revealed.)
Maybe they can use their modeling skills to come up with the one mutual fund that will reliably beat the market every year.
San FRan Chinese restaurant visit today. :-]
I wonder what “The Signal” was forecasting 9 months before the 2010 election.
I don't know about the rest of you but this seems to have been the MSM's mantra coming off the holiday season (which BTW were the best in 4 years).
My model tells me that Obama will only win 16:
Puerto Rico (should we include this?)
You can’t really fake the gas prices.
"Editors of The Casey Report, Casey Research writes: President Obama promised to turn around the floundering economy that he inherited from his predecessor. He promised jobs. He promised transparency. Not only did he not deliver on those campaign promises, he has led the nation further into the abyss on all counts. Today we are less prosperous, deeper in debt, and enjoy fewer liberties than when Obama first stepped into the Oval Office. His own party is losing faith in the messiah."
"You can see that loss of faith in the steady downward trajectory of Obama's approval ratings. While Democrats can take heart from the fact that no truly viable candidate has emerged from the GOP, it's clear that "Hope and Change" will not be sufficient to rally the electoral troops for Obama again in 2012. Voters are hurting, and Obama's claims that the blame lies with George W. Bush no longer provide any solace."
(Keep saying it, Worse Than Jimmie Carter)
Virginia is a red herring but the GOP will probably take Ohio, Iowa, Colorado and possibly Nevada.
>>You cant really fake the gas prices.
They can try that “buy by the liter” trick again like they tried in the late 70’s at some gas stations. Obama voters are stupid enough to fall for that.
True, but have you noticed 0bama and the MSM are spinning it as "The economy's improving so of course demand is up so prices are up."
What they leave out is that yeah, the economy is improving, but in India and China.
The U.S. and E.U. .... Not so much.
It is highly doubtful Obama will win Washington and Oregon states. I’m from this region and he is despised.
Did you see this today?
Just going off my gut, if we have a decent nominee (doubtful maybe, but we can dream), then Obama won’t win Virginia or Ohio. That alone changes the total here to R-266 D-272.
Then, we’d just need to pick up a state that Bush won in 2004, like Nebraska, Nevada, Colorado, or New Mexico and it would be over.
All of that depends on who our nominee is, and without knowing that, my predictions are about as valuable as this model, which is not very valuable at all.
He won’t win Wisconsin this year. No way in hell.
You forgot Minnesota. They voted for Mondale in ‘84 man! No way are we picking that up, even against Obama.
And since when does DC count? They aren’t a state, they should have zero electoral votes.
Top will take Wisconsin too. We have voter ID and the dems can’t cheat as a well as before.
tonight I enjoyed a nice dinner with Elvis and he said that mr obama will lose