Posted on 09/27/2012 6:38:02 AM PDT by Ravi
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Our county by county OH spreadsheet shows total absentees; total Rs & Ds; total 2004 numbers for each county; victory % and raw numbers for 2004.
No matter how you cut it, Obama is hugely underperforming in OH. For ex., in Franklin (Columbus) which he won by 21% (!!) he is already at a 5,500 vote disadvantage.
Early/Absentee votes will constitute almost 1/4 of all OH votes. The trend is absolutely our friend-—and by the way, this is across EVERY county, even Dem friendly counties are way down for Dem ballots and way up for GOP.
Ok let’s go with those 2008 numbers — what does “overperforming” mean, does it mean they returned a higher percentage of AB’s than R’s did, or that they returned them earlier, or that more D’s voted via AB than R’s, or what.
Knowing nothing about NC registration except what I’ve seen on this thread, which is almost certainly why I see a dozen variables instead of just one or two, I don’t see any conclusion that can’t be refuted.
Thank you!
I guess I must have misinterpreted some other threads. But good for you...Romney right? lol.
Military/overseas ballots were mailed out earlier. Military favored repubs and domestic overseas favored dems. It really doesn’t take a rocket scientist to sort through this data and see where the trends lie.
.......ALRIGHT LS!!!!!
Yeah, it is enough to draw a pretty good conclusion. I operate on three assumptions (which the beloved polls all tend to support): 1) no Ds will vote for Romney; 2) no Rs will vote for Obama; and 3) Is will split 50/50. Now, the final one is in doubt, only because almost ALL polls have shown Romney with a LEAD in this group-—but we’ll play it conservatively.
This was exactly the same info everyone around here disregarded in 2008, and it was a harbinger of an Obama victory. We won’t ignore it again. But this time, it is showing a crushing defeat for the Dems in OH and, so far, NC.
Seriously? You’re stooping to this? Criticizing early voting because it proves your STUPID little theories wrong?
Why can’t you be a man and say, “I was wrong (so far).” “So far, it looks like the polls were, in fact, wrong.” “So far, Romney is killing it in OH.”
That’s all you need to say.
Do you have the full breakdown from 4yrs ago? Do you happen to remember what percentage of Republicans voted for Obama in NC in 2k8?
This is where we have to be careful. Repubs did outperform in absentees in 2008 in NC also so we are now above where we were only in absentees in comparison to 2008. Also, in 2004, absentees accounted for 13% of all early voting and in 2008, absentees accounted for 8.7% of all early voting. I’d like to see that absentee total/all early voting ratio to be above 10%. That we have to wait to see.
You should be added to the ping list. The OH numbers are even more impressive. Shocking, really.
Those are the numbers I was talking about. Without absolute numbers of AB’s, party registration, etc., any assertion of trend or prediction of outcome could easily be refuted. Much obliged.
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Thanks for the updates on Ohio -
180° from the garbage the media is shoveling.....
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Over and underperforming based on 2008 turnout.
Guess you need a primer on polling, and why all the polling that is out there is (if these numbers are accurate) badly off:
All polls assume a D/R split based on some turnout model. So far, not only are all the polls except Rasmussen using the 2008 model, some are actually INCREASING the turnout from 2008. This is just ludicrous and unconscionable. Nevertheless, if, say, a county went for Obama by 60-40, then the model used for a poll would consist of interviewing 60 Ds and 40 Rs-—and they would have a split for Indies, but let’s table that for now.
The dynamics of OH are that if the Rs turn out and vote R, Rs win. No exceptions. In 2008, Rs turned out and 25% voted Dem. I don’t know one analyst, even the most lib, who thinks that this time around Romney won’t get almost all Rs and Obama will get almost all Ds.
So when we see a county that went 60-40 for Obama and it now has absentee early splits coming in at 66-33 REPUBLICAN (say, Hamilton County) the Dems are in huge trouble.
You MIGHT say, “Well, x county is an outlier.” Yes, that would be valid. But when it’s across the board, even in the very Dem heavy counties (Obama will be down 70,000 votes in Cuyahoa, for ex.-—count on it), then barring something really unusual, Obama is screwed in OH.
Based on the heavy “overperformance” of Rs in NC, he’s screwed there too. If we find numbers are similar in VA and FL, then it’s going to be an early night on Nov. 6.
But let’s all PLEASE remember that in 08, at least in OH, large numbers (10% of our deepest red precincts) of Rs voted for Obama.
In all of my assumptions this time-—and I could be wrong-—NO R will vote for Obama and no D will vote for Romney. Those who do will cancel.
http://www.ncsbe.gov/content.aspx?id=69
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_North_Carolina,_2008
http://elections.gmu.edu/Early_Voting_2008_Final.html
That last one is the best.
Here’s the spreadsheet. If you want on the ping list, let me know.
And if I’m making some huge error, I need to know that too, because I can get this into the hands of some pretty influential people, but I need to know that we’re 100% right.
This isn’t good though . . . .
“On the surface, at least, it would appear that Obama has a significant jump on the early balloting. At close of business Tuesday, 114,585 Democrats had requested absentee ballots from election officials; compared to 22,364 Republicans, according to the office of Secretary of State Matt Schultz. That’s a better than 5-to-1 margin.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/09/27/early-voting-begins-in-iowa/
c’mon Hawkeyes
If you want on the spreadsheet/OH/NC ping list, contact Jet Jaguar.
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