Posted on 09/18/2016 9:51:14 AM PDT by Political Junkie Too
Previous Editions:
September 10, 2016 (Premier Edition)
I made another significant change to the model from last week, as I continue to tweak the new system:
The Race for the White House
This will be a nearly comprehensive report, as Trump had a breakout week. I'm also bringing back the animated graphics, and two new analysis graphs.
Donald Trump has an expected Electoral Vote count of 258 versus Hillary Clinton's 280. Trump's probability of winning is 40%, up from last week's 29%.
In Alabama (9 EV), a poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (8/26 to 9/15) shows Trump leading 53%-40% in a 4-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%). Alabama remains Safe Trump.
In Alaska (3 EV), a late-added poll from Moore Information of 500 likely voters (8/27 to 8/29) shows Trump leading 39%-29% (MOE 4.0%). All earlier polls of registered voters were retired. Alaska moves to Safe Trump.
In Arizona (11 EV), a pair of polls from NBC News/WSJ/Marist of 649 likely voters (9/6 to 9/8) shows Trump leading 42%-41% in a 2-way race, and leading 40%-38% in a 4-way race (MOE 3.8%). A poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (9/2 to 9/15) shows Trump leading 46%-39% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%). Trump's lead in Arizona has remained consistent, so Arizona remains Leans Trump.
In Arkansas (6 EV), a polls from Emerson of 600 likely voters (9/9 to 9/13) confirms a June poll with Trump leading 57%-29% in a 4-way race (MOE 3.9%). Arkansas remains Safe Trump.
In California (55 EV), a new poll from KABC/SurveyUSA of 678 likely voters (9/8 to 9/11) still shows Clinton leading by at least 20% consistently (57%-32%, 3.8% MOE). Polls from June and earlier were retired. California is still Safe Clinton.
In Colorado (9 EV), a new poll from Emerson of 600 likely voters (9/9 to 9/13) breaks Trump's way at 42%-38% in a 4-way race (3.9% MOE). A poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (9/2 to 9/15) shows Trump leading 43%-40% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%). Polls from early August and older were retired. Colorado plummets from Strong Clinton to Trump's side of Toss-up.
In Connecticut (7 EV), a poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (8/26 to 9/15) shows Clinton leading 45%-40% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%). A Quinnipiac poll of registered voters from June was retired. Connecticut moves from Safe Clinton to Strong Clinton.
In Florida (29 EV), a fresh poll from CBS News/YouGov of 1,193 likely voters (9/7 to 9/9) shows Clinton leading 44%-42% in a 4-way race (MOE 3.5%). A brand new poll from JMC Analytics has Trump's widest lead so far at 46%-42% (3.5% MOE). A new poll from CNN/ORC of 788 likely voters (9/7 to 9/12) has Trump's lead sustaining at 46-42% in a 2-way race and 47%-44% in a 4-way race (3.5 MOE). A poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (9/9 to 9/15) shows Trump leading 50%-46% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%). Florida moves from Toss-Up to Leans Trump.
In Georgia (16 EV), a pair of polls from NBC News/WSJ/Marist of 649 likely voters (9/6 to 9/8) shows Trump leading 46%-43% in a 2-way race, and leading 44%-42% in a 4-way race (MOE 3.8%). A poll refresh from Fox 5 Atlanta of 568 likely voters on 9/14 shows Trump leading 46%-42% in a 3-way race (4.1% MOE). A new poll by Emerson of 600 likely voters (9/9 to 9/13) has Trump leading 45%-39% in a 3-way race (3.9% MOE). A poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (9/2 to 9/15) shows Trump leading 48%-40% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%). A poll of registered voters from early August was retired. Georgia moves from Toss-Up to Strong Trump.
In Idaho (4 EV), a poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (8/26 to 9/15) shows Trump leading 56%-32% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%). Idaho remains Safe Trump.
In Illinois (20 EV), a poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (9/9 to 9/15) shows Clinton leading 52%-36% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%). Illinois remains Safe Clinton.
In Indiana (11 EV), a poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (9/2 to 9/15) shows Trump leading 53%-33% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%). Indiana remains Safe Trump.
In Iowa (6 EV), a new poll from Monmouth of 404 likely voters (9/12 to 9/14) widens Trump's lead to 45%-39% in a 4-way race (4.9% MOE). A poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (8/26 to 9/15) shows Trump leading 49%-41% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%). Early August polls were retired. Iowa remains Strong Trump.
In Kansas (6 EV), a poll refresh by KSN News/SurveyUSA of 595 likely voters (9/6 to 9/11) shows Trump running away in a 4-way race with 48%-36% (4.1% MOE). A poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (8/26 to 9/15) shows Trump leading 49%-39% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%). Polls from July were retired. Kansas moves to Safe Trump.
In Kentucky (8 EV), a poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (8/26 to 9/15) shows Trump leading 54%-35% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%). Kentucky remains Safe Trump.
In Louisiana (8 EV), a poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (8/26 to 9/15) shows Trump leading 54%-34% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%). Louisiana remains Safe Trump.
In Maine (4 EV), we have a split state, Maine overall and Maine CD-2. In Maine, a new poll from Boston Globe/SurveyUSA of 779 likely voters (9/4 to 9/10) has Clinton leading (42%-39%) in a 4-person race (3.6% MOE). An August poll of registered voters was retired. However, a poll in Maine CD-2 by Boston Globe (9/4 to 9/10) flips to Trump leading 47%-37% in a 4-way race (5.0% MOE). This puts Maine in the Toss-Up category, effectively splitting Maine's electoral votes between both Trump and Clinton.
In Maryland (10 EV), a poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (9/2 to 9/15) shows Clinton leading 53%-29% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%). Maryland remains Safe Clinton.
In Massachusetts (11 EV), a new poll from WBUR/MassINC of 506 likely voters (9/7 to 9/10) has Clinton leading (54%-28%) in a 4-person race (4.4% MOE). A poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (9/2 to 9/15) shows Clinton leading 53%-31% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%). Massachusetts remains Safe Clinton.
In Michigan (16 EV), an updated poll from Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell of 940 likely voters (9/6 to 9/7) continues a 5-point Clinton lead (47% to 42%) in a 2-person race, and a 6-point lead (45% to 39%) in a 4-way race (3.2% MOE). A late-week poll refresh from the Detroit Free Press of 600 likely voters (9/10 to 9/13) cuts Clinton's lead in half to 38%-35% in a 4-way race (4.0% MOE). A poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (9/2 to 9/15) is tied at 44% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%). Michigan remains Strong Clinton.
In Minnesota (10 EV), a poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (9/2 to 9/15) shows Clinton leading 44%-34% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%). Minnesota remains Strong Clinton.
In Mississippi (6 EV), a poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (8/26 to 9/15) shows Trump leading 51%-37% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%). Mississippi remains Safe Trump.
In Missouri (10 EV), a new poll from Emerson of 600 likely voters (9/9 to 9/13) widens Trump's lead to 47%-34% in a 4-person race (3.9% MOE). A poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (9/2 to 9/15) has Trump leading 53-36% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%). Polls from July were retired. Missouri remains Strong Trump.
In Montana (3 EV), a poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (8/26 to 9/15) shows Trump leading 52%-39% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%). Montana remains Safe Trump.
In Nebraska (5 EV), a poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (8/26 to 9/15) shows Trump leading 52%-32% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%). Nebraska remains Safe Trump.
In Nevada (6 EV), a pair of polls from NBC News/WSJ/Marist of 627 likely voters (9/6 to 9/8) is a split decision. Clinton leads 45%-44% in a 2-way race, and Trump leads 42%-41% in a 4-way race (MOE 3.9%). A poll refresh from Monmouth of 406 likely voters (9/11 to 9/13) in a 3-way race has Trump beating Clinton 44%-42% (MOE 4.9%). A poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (8/26 to 9/15) has Trump leading 41-38% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%). Retiring some polls from July and early August, Nevada moves from Leans Clinton to Toss-Up tilting Trump's way.
In New Hampshire (4 EV), a pair of polls from NBC News/WSJ/Marist of 737 likely voters (9/6 to 9/8) shows Clinton's lead shrinking to 42%-41% in a 2-way race, and 39%-37% in a 4-way race (MOE 3.6%). However, a poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (8/26 to 9/15) has Clinton leading 48-39% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%). New Hampshire remains Strong Clinton.
In New Jersey (14 EV), a poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (9/2 to 9/15) has Clinton leading 49-33% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%), New Jersey remains Strong Clinton.
In New Mexico (4 EV), a poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (8/26 to 9/15) has Trump leading 43-38% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%), reversing a Clinton 40%-31% lead in August. For now, New Mexico switches from Safe Clinton to Strong Trump.
In New York (29 EV), a poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (9/9 to 9/15) has Clinton leading 53-30% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%), New York remains Safe Clinton.
In North Carolina (15 EV), a new poll from Civitas of 600 likely voters (9/11 to 9/12) is a tie at 42% in a 4-way race (MOE 4.0%). A poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (9/2 to 9/15) has Clinton leading 46%-44% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%). Polls from early August were retired. North Carolina remains a Toss-Up that tilts Clinton's way.
In Ohio (18 EV), a new poll from CBS News/YouGov of 994 likely voters (9/7 to 9/9) shows Clinton leading 46%-39% in a 4-way race (MOE 3.9%). A more recent poll from Bloomberg of 802 likely voters (9/9 to 9/12) flips to Trump leading 48%-43% in a 2-way race, and leading 44%-39% in a 4-way race (3.5% MOE). And a new CNN/ORC poll of 769 likely voters (9/7 to 9/12) has Trump sustaining the lead at 50%-46% in a 2-way race and 46%-41% in a 4-way race (MOE 3.5%). A new poll from Suffolk University of 500 likely voters (9/12 to 9/14) has Trump leading 42%-39% in a 4-way race (4.4% MOE). A poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (9/2 to 9/15) has Clinton leading 46%-44% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%). Ohio remains on the outer edge of Leans Trump.
In Oklahoma (7 EV), a poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (8/26 to 9/15) has Trump leading 53%-32% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%). Oklahoma remains Safe Trump.
In Oregon (7 EV), a poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (8/26 to 9/15) has Clinton leading 44%-41% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%). A prior poll of 517 registered voters from DMH Research (9/1 to 9/6) Has Clinton leading 38%-25% (MOE 4.3%). Oregon remains Strong Clinton.
In Pennsylvania (20 EV), a poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (9/5 to 9/15) has Clinton's lead narrowing to 46%-44% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%). A prior poll of 778 likely voters from Quinnipiac (8/27 to 9/7) had Clinton with a 5% lead of 44%-39% (MOE 4.3%), and a poll from CBS/YouGov of 1,091 likely voters (8/30 to 9/2) had Clinton leading by 8% at 45%-37% (MOE 4.1%). Pennsylvania remains Strong Clinton. We'll have to see if this trajectory carries into next week.
In South Carolina (9 EV), a poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (8/26 to 9/15) has Trump leading 51%-43% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%). South Carolina is polling on the edges of the margin of error, so remains Strong Trump.
In Tennessee (11 EV), a poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (9/2 to 9/15) has Trump leading 50%-26% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%). Tennessee remains Safe Trump.
In Texas (38 EV), Emerson conducts its first poll of 700 likely voters (9/7 to 9/10) showing Trump leading 42%-36% in a 4-way race (MOE 3.6%). Texas Lyceum also adds a new poll of 502 likely voters (9/1 to 9/11) with Trump leading 39%-32% in a 4-way race (4.4% MOE). A poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (9/9 to 9/15) has Trump leading 51%-29% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%). Polls from August and earlier were retired. Texas moves from Safe Trump to the outer fringes of Strong Trump.
In Utah (6 EV), a refreshed poll from Utah Policy/Dan Jones of 605 likely voters (9/1 to 9/9) has Trump leading 39%-24% in a 4-way race (MOE 4.0%). A poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (8/26 to 9/15) has Trump leading 48%-29% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%). Two polls from March and June were removed. Utah moves to Safe Trump.
In Virginia (13 EV), a poll by PPP of 878 likely voters (9/9 to 9/11) shows Clinton leading 50%-42% in a 2-way race and 45%-39% in a 4-way race. (MOE 3.3%). A new poll by the University of Mary Washington of 685 likely voters (9/6 to 9/12) reduces Clinton's lead to 40%-37% in a 4-way race (4.4% MOE). A poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (9/9 to 9/15) has Clinton leading 47%-38% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%). Polls from early August were retired. Virginia moves from Leans Clinton to Strong Clinton.
In Washington (12 EV), a poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (9/2 to 9/15) has Clinton leading 47%-37% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%). Washington remains Safe Clinton.
In West Virginia (5 EV), a poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (8/26 to 9/15) has Trump leading 49%-39% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%). West Virginia remains Safe Trump.
In Wisconsin (10 EV), a poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (9/2 to 9/15) has Clinton leading 43%-40% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%). Previous August polls have Clinton leading by 3%-6%. Wisconsin remains Strong Clinton.
Must-Win States
This is a chart of the states that were won when Trump reached 270 or more Electoral College votes. The numbers indicate the percent of the time the state was won when Trump won the election.
States in the 90+% range must be won to reach 270 electoral votes.
Correlations
This chart shows the state correlations to the final electoral vote count. I may drop this chart from future reports, in favor of the Must-Win chart above.
Using an average of polls from Real Clear Politics, the results of simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:
| Week | GOP Electoral College P10 |
GOP Electoral College EV |
GOP Electoral College P90 |
Probability of 270 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-Sep-16 | 148 | 214 | 295 | 21% |
| 10-Sep-16 | 152 | 231 | 298 | 29% |
| 17-Sep-16 | 181 | 258 | 343 | 40% |
Probability Curve
State Rankings Definitions
17-Sep-16 State Rankings
| Clinton - 255 | Trump - 231 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe | Strong | Leaning | Toss-Up | Leaning | Strong | Safe | |||||||
| EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State |
| 55 | California | 7 | Connecticut | 9 | Colorado | 11 | Arizona | 16 | Georgia | 9 | Alabama | ||
| 3 | District of Columbia | 16 | Michigan | 4 | Maine | 29 | Florida | 6 | Iowa | 3 | Alaska | ||
| 3 | Delaware | 10 | Minnesota | 6 | Nevada | 10 | Missouri | 6 | Arkansas | ||||
| 4 | Hawaii | 4 | New Hampshire | 15 | North Carolina | 5 | New Mexico | 4 | Idaho | ||||
| 20 | Illinois | 14 | New Jersey | 18 | Ohio | 9 | South Carolina | 11 | Indiana | ||||
| 10 | Maryland | 7 | Oregon | 38 | Texas | 6 | Kansas | ||||||
| 11 | Massachusetts | 20 | Pennsylvania | 8 | Kentucky | ||||||||
| 29 | New York | 4 | Rhode Island | 8 | Louisiana | ||||||||
| 3 | Vermont | 13 | Virginia | 6 | Mississippi | ||||||||
| 12 | Washington | 10 | Wisconsin | 3 | Montana | ||||||||
| 5 | Nebraska | ||||||||||||
| 3 | North Dakota | ||||||||||||
| 7 | Oklahoma | ||||||||||||
| 3 | South Dakota | ||||||||||||
| 11 | Tennessee | ||||||||||||
| 6 | Utah | ||||||||||||
| 5 | West Virginia | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Wyoming | ||||||||||||
| 150 | 105 | 0 | 52 | 40 | 84 | 107 | |||||||
Electoral Map
-PJ
Comments are always welcome.
Let me know if anyone wants on or off the ping list.
-PJ
on ;)
Bump.
Is 269 tie possible if the race is close? as I read elsewhere. But house elects Trump.
With the Muslim terror attacks in NJ, NY, and MN couple with the weak, dodgy statements of NYC mayor DiBlasio and Clinton (while obviously sick, sedated,and seditious) and you can expect more Trump momentum this next week.
Nobody wants to die so Hillary can bag more millions.
Very interesting question.
I just checked the model, and there is only one scenario (out of 1,000) where a tie occurs. And, this may not be accurate, because I'm not handling the possibly of Maine splitting its electoral vote, and Maine is in this scenario. I may look into better handling Maine next week, if a split vote seems likely.
The states that were won to make the tie are:
-PJ
Would like to be added to Ping List.
Anyone who can volunteer to be a poll watcher, go for it.
I'm in Idaho where we have the paper fill-in-the-oval with a pencil ballot, so we're okay. So worried about the voter fraud. Do what you can folks. .
Very nice work, PJ. Thanks for the ping.
Apparently, you think that Jake Tapper is a more credible source for your sidebars than my election analysis and forecasts.
After 15 years, I'm still not worthy of some kind of front-page sidebar recognition for Trump, talk-radio, and other lurkers to find my poll analysis?
If Brian Ross wrote it, would you allow it, but I don't have "credentials?"
Whom do you guys want to win the election?
-PJ
-PJ
wow lots of info. I appreciate your work and sharing it.
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