Posted on 11/05/2018 2:26:44 PM PST by Kaslin
This is my final column before the midterm election. So, this former Vegas oddsmaker turned national political commentator has a few predictions and common sense observations to make.
Back in 2016 I predicted a Trump victory when no one else did. Every poll showed Trump would lose by a wide margin. Nate Silver of the NY Times predicted Hillary’s chances of winning at 92%. These pollsters make their living by polling actual human beings. I don’t. So how did I know?
Simple. First, size matters. You could see it in the rallies. Trump would attract eight hour lines and 10,000 or more attendees at wild, intense rallies all over America. I should know. I was opening speaker for six Trump campaign events here in Las Vegas.
Meanwhile Hillary was attracting 100 to 200 attendees at a rally here in Vegas. I could fit Hillary’s rallies in my living room. The same story held true across America. That was my first reason for realizing Trump was going to pull a huge upset that few saw coming.
Part Duex was also simple. Trump was “the whisper candidate.” Everywhere I went, people whispered in my ear, “I’m with you. I’m for Trump.” They wouldn’t tell pollsters. They wouldn't put up yard signs. No bumper stickers on their car. No mention of their support of Trump around the office watercooler. But they whispered to me. The pollsters never had a chance.
Don’t look now, but it’s all happening again. Nate Silver says Democrats have a 80%+ chance of winning the House. Cook Report says Democrats will win the House by 40 seats. All the experts say it’s over- Democrats will win. I'll go out on a limb and disagree again.
I see Florida Democrat Governor candidate Andrew Gillum holding a rally with Bernie Sanders and the whole place is empty.
Barack Obama could not fill a high school gym in Milwaukee.
I witnessed firsthand Joe Biden and Obama at separate events here in Las Vegas playing to small crowds.
Meanwhile I was opening speaker for President Trump’s event in Las Vegas last month- with 10,000 waiting in line for hours in a place where no one cares much about politics. This is a phenomenon.
Does that sound like the GOP is losing 40 seats? Dream on delusional Democrats.
Then there’s “the whispers.” Nothing has changed. Trump has fulfilled almost all of his campaign promises. He is the only politician in history who did exactly what he promised. And those same voters are whispering to me again- they love Trump now, more than ever.
Then there’s common sense. The Trump economy is BOOMING.
The latest results are out- 250,000 more jobs last month, far above what was expected. The lowest unemployment in half a century. The number of Americans employed is the highest EVER. Almost 500,000 new manufacturing jobs under Trump. The kind Obama claimed would never happen again. 1000 new manufacturing jobs a day last month- the best results since the 1990's.
And most importantly, wages grew by a remarkable 3.1%- the most in a decade. Who in their right mind would vote against THAT?
That could be why Trump’s approval rating among blacks is now 40%. If only white liberals weren’t blind, deaf and really dumb.
Most importantly, Trump has brilliantly kept the emotional issue of illegal immigration front and center. He wants to block the caravan, end birthright citizenship and make it much harder for illegal aliens to claim asylum. The polls are out- 65% of likely voters in swing districts across the USA agree with Trump. The middle class will come out in record numbers for Trump. Bet on it.
In the 2014 midterm election in Texas 1.7 million voted early. This year early voting in Texas numbered over 4.3 million. With a booming economy and an illegal alien invasion in the headlines, you think they’re coming out for Democrats?
No way Jose.
I'll go out on a limb again. I'll put my gut instincts up against every poll and pollster and political "expert." All of them...all of them...say the House is lost. But they don't have a clue what's happening. I predict they're all wrong again. The Silent Majority is whispering again- and they love Trump. They support Trump. They will reward Trump.
I'll go out on a limb again to predict another upset for the GOP on Tuesday. We will expand our Senate majority by 3 to 6 seats. It will be very close but, the GOP will hold the House. America stays bright red- again
Democrats will be in shock and mourning. The pollsters got it all wrong again.
And Wednesday morning will be the busiest day for psychiatrists and psychologists in the history of America.
#REDSTORM
It’s a double-whammy if they #WALKAWAY and then vote Republican.
Fox should contract megan Kelly for tomorrow’s election night reporting.
Don’t forget to add an increase in black and latino votes for Trump.
Still not enough.
Watch for fraud on an epic level, more people voting for the (D) than even live in some districts.
And nary a peep from the never-Trumpers in protest.
Romney was no Trump, but a few days before the election he and Paul Ryan had a rally in some small town in Pennsylvania that no one ever heard of and drew a crowd of about 3000. The same day Obama had a rally in Cleveland, OH, a Democrat stronghold and only drew 300.
I still think that election was lost to voter fraud.
Ugh. So then he'd be pushing the cover.
Good comment, Sarah. Wayne Root’s arguments are persuasive and yet he didn’t even mention factor such as the anger over the Kavanaugh hearings... or North Korea.
Trump has accomplished so much, it’s tiring talking about it all!
If the country doesn’t support Trump, they don’t deserve a president like Trump.
The media will have egg on it's face tomorrow...
The blue wave will sweep across the already blue parts of the country. No where else.
Yup. That’s his job. Get the betting spread evenly, make money no matter what.
I suspect Trump will do more than peep.
Bloomberg { link only on FR} article on a gambler who went to England to lay a large bet on the Rs keeping the House:
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-11-05/midterm-elections-why-one-punter-thinks-democrats-will-lose
Interesting summary of polling problems.
I know it upsets people to go contrary, but here goes.
I attended a huge, swarming, wildly enthusiastic rally for Bush Sr. After which he lost the state and reelection. Crowds aren’t everything.
The problem with the House is the vulnerable seats are mostly in states where our state wide candidates are not expected to win, like PA & NJ.
If Trump can’t bring Senate candidates in those states to victory, no real reason to believe he is winning moderate House districts.
I certainly hope we add many Senate seats and handily hold the House. But we are preaching to the choir here, and outside the gate many are singing a different tune.
My humble analysis is, the Trump vote will turn out he’s energized his base. But maybe this time the Democrat base is energized as well (Hillary was a dud). So that spells a tossup with some reverses from 2016.
Senate +3
House -15 to 30.
Mr. Tidy Bowl got flushed.
Romney had a nationwide computerized get out the vote system which totally crashed on election day. Probably hacked by the democrats or sabotaged from within. That probably did him in.
Yeah. And Fox will cover it between the Bigfoot and UFO stories.
I’m putting the finishing touches on my new election prediction software, and will be plugging data into it over the next couple days. I expect the answers to pop out in a few days.... and it will be the best prediction software ever!
My thought exactly.
I like his sense of logic, and believe he is quite correct in his analysis. dates. I personally felt in 2016 exactly what he says about the crowds the candidates attract.
The dems are the ones responsible for making polling worthless in their shaming efforts or outright violence towards anyone conservatives and their candidates.
We’ll see come Wednesday.
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