DemocRats take lead in MidTerms (Newsweek report)

Newsweek/ MSNBC ^ | Sept 28, 2002 | Jennifer Barret

[spetznaz]

Democrats Take the Lead in Midterms While George W. Bush focuses on building support for war with Iraq, voters say they are most concerned about the economy.

Sept. 28 — With less than six weeks until the November mid-term elections, Democratic Congressional candidates have taken the lead among voters, according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll.

[spetznaz]

Republicans will have to turn out in droves to vote this mid-term. That is imperative, and while i am sure some Freepers will say this poll is 'fake' or something to that effect the fact still remains that Republicans will need to vote as if the poll is gospel truth! Staying at home is not going to help at all!

[spetznaz]

Ping.

[tip of the sword]

Is this the leak of the MSNBC/Newsweak Zogby 'Special Sauce' Poll due out tomorrow?

[vannrox]

Source: Newsweek.



However, Conservatives absolutely must vote in Droves and be wary of DemoRAT Felony vots. Maybe we should post armed guards at cemetaries so the dead will stop voting Democrat.

[mware]

Democrates take lead in mid term elections????

Not in New Jersey they don't.

[Falcon4.0]

Well ya know? Suicide bombs going off in shopping malls, churchs and school yards isn't going to help the economy at all now is it?

[OldFriend]

NewsWEAK had gore up by 21 pts. in the national election............and zogby had gore leading in the presidential preference poll taken a few weeks ago with al sharpton second, ahead of LIEberman, kerry, edwards, even over her heinous.

We have work to do........make sure everyone votes, we have to counteract the dead,the institutionalized and those confined to nursing homes.

[John Jorsett]

Contrast this with:

G.O.P. is seen ahead by nose in House races
Frist confident that GOP will gain Senate control with next election
Republicans Lead in House Races - Barely
One Vote Away

[Quicksilver]

Bush, GOP, up in Harris poll

[spetznaz]

Polls are usually not worth the paper they are written on ...however as i said no matter personal opinions of the veracity of this poll the fact still remains conservatives need to vote in droves! Not doing that because the poll may be 'fake' may be detrimental to republicans.

[Quicksilver]

Oops, screwed up, try this:

Bush, GOP, up in Harris poll

[EllaMinnow]

Here are the specs from the article:


IF THE NOVEMBER ELECTIONS for U.S. Congress were held today, more registered voters say they would vote for the Democratic candidate (47 percent) than the Republican candidate (40 percent) in their district. Thirteen percent say the would vote for another party’s candidate or are undecided. That’s a turnabout from the NEWSWEEK poll taken just after President George W. Bush’s Sept. 12 speech on Iraq to the United Nations, when 43 percent said they would vote for the GOP candidate, vs. 41 percent fot he Democrat.


I say "ptoooey!"
I've never put much stock into generic congressional polls. Way too many variables.

[upchuck]

Why did you excerpt this article?

[Dave S]

True about turnout but two things this article does not address:

1) the poll is among registered voters, not among likely voters. Democrats always do better among registered voters than among likely voters.

2) there is no significant difference in the 40% who say they would vote GOP this poll versus the 43% in the prior wave. Looking at it from the Democrat vote, they are up to 47% from 41%. However the error range is probably at least 4% if the sample is 1100 or higher if the sample base is only 500 or so which is more likely. So the move towards the Democrats is just barely significant and probably is result of the decline in the bump Bush and GOP got after 9/11.

My best guess is the Democrats probably lead by two or three percent nationwide in the generic ballot among registered voters. However, past elections show that the Dems have to be at least five points higher among registered voters for them not to be behind among likely voters. So Republicans are still in this race.

Furthermore, the poll is national while only forty or so congressional districts are competitive and most of those are in states that Bush carried. Personally I think a better indication of how the race is going is the current state of panic among the Democrats.

[linn37]

yup just shut up and vote on election day and take a friend with ya!

[Quicksilver]

"Torricelli looks like toast," Mr. Zogby said ... Democrats fear losing majority in Senate

[John Jorsett]

No argument from me, although it's probably a given that anyone reading FR is going to vote. I posted the contrary stories to give a little support to anyone who might see the Newsweek story and think it actually means something.

[LarryM]

I wouldn't line my bird cage with Newsweek. Dasshole's temper tantrum was not that of someone who thinks he's winning. The GOP is always behind in generic polls until late October. That is when their paid advertising becomes thick enough to offset media bias.

[John Jorsett]

I've never put much stock into generic congressional polls. Way too many variables.

Not to mention that polls that address 'registered voters' are pretty much worthless. Only the 'likely voter' ones get any attention from me, and not even much then. The best of the lot are the internal polls that get leaked, although you have to take even those with a grain of salt, since the 'leak' could be a flat-out lie for strategic reasons.

[spetznaz]

Why did you excerpt this article?

Let me see ...hmmmmmm? Hah! Got it! Because it is pertinent to the fact we are having elections 6 weeks from now. And because it has to do with Republicans and Democrats. And maybe because it might make even one person who was planning to sleep through the mid-term elections to wake up to vote.

I could go on but something tells me you are just trying to dig up something that is not there (and that i have no time to waste debating on).

And i posted in the commentary why i posted this thread.