Show 'em my motto!
The middle class is squeezed by uncontrolled legal and illegal immigration on one side, and offshoring/outsourcing on the other. Throw in the harsh environment after 9/11, and yes, this is a serious issue that Washington had better start paying attention to. Pissed off people don't usually vote for incumbents.
Paige McKenzie, NewsMax.com
Wednesday, Feb. 25, 2004
The media and Democrats keep repeating it over and over: "2.3 million jobs lost" since President Bush took office. His could be the worst job record since before World War II, they claim.
One little problem: It's not true.
Not only has there been no net loss of jobs during the Bush administration, there has been a net gain, even with the devastation of 9/11. At least 2.4 million jobs have been created since the president took office, 2 million of those in 2003. The gains more than offset the losses.
While Democrats continue to beat their election-year drums about outsourcing, manufacturing losses, unemployment and slow growth in employment, America’s economy has been steadily creating jobs.
At least 366,000 jobs have been created in the last five months, over 100,000 of those in January, White House press secretary Scott McClellan has noted. And though the eight-month recession “officially” ended in November, economic indicators are surprising economists and pointing toward a take-off in the recovery.
The signs:
The 5.6 percent unemployment rate is the lowest in two years and below the average of the 1980s (7.3 percent) and '90s (5.8 percent), and still continues to drop.
The nation's economic output revealed the strongest quarterly growth in 20 years. The data for the fourth quarter of 2003 show that the civilian labor force rose by 333,000, while the number of unemployed in the labor force dropped by 575,000. Even better, the number of so-called discouraged workers declined in December.
Consumer spending grew between 4 percent and 5 percent last year, and real hourly earnings rose 1.5 percent. Real earnings have risen over the last three years.
Exports doubled to 19 percent in the fourth quarter, compared to less than 9 percent in the third.
The number of American workers is at an all-time high of 138.5 million, a level never before attained in U.S. history.
Jobless claims are 10 percent below the average of the last 25 years and still falling.
Hiring indices are up, even in manufacturing.
Productivity growth is extremely high.
Now the doomsayers are criticizing the validity of the unemployment rate, which at 5.6 percent does not fit their gloomy story.
Faulty Counting
The problem is the areas of biggest job growth are usually not even being counted at all.
Though 75 percent of jobs are created by small companies, according to the Small Business Administration, this sector’s entrepreneurial activity and the jobs it creates are left out by Washington bean counters when calculating official new job numbers.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) does its Payroll Survey by phoning businesses to crunch the number of jobs that have been gained or lost. This is where Democrats grabbed onto their lifeline, the 2.3 million figure. Look only at the Payroll Survey, and there has been a gain of only 522,000 jobs since Bush took office.
But here’s the rub. The Household Survey is used to determine the unemployment rate and accounts for those who are self-employed, and small emerging businesses that might be overlooked by the Payroll Survey. But the number of U.S. firms isn’t static, and the "fixed list" used by the BLS for phoning established businesses does not reflect new entrepreneurial activity.
People are called at home and asked if they have jobs, or if they are in the market for a job. In contrast to the Payroll Survey, the Household Survey shows that 2.4 million jobs have been created so far during Bush's time in office.
As Economy.com writer Haseeb Ahmed recently wrote, "something is amiss in the [Payroll] survey."
Credit Where Credit Is Due
That’s not all. When doomsayers, and media spoiling for a fight in an election year, laughed at Bush’s prediction of 2.6 million new jobs this year, not everyone was scoffing.
Ahmed, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and others hardly batted an eye. Greenspan said it was "probably feasible" the economy would reach the Bush administration's forecast of adding 2.6 million jobs this year, provided growth continues and the productivity rate slows to more typically levels.
"I don't think it's 'Fantasyland,'" Greenspan said.
"I agree with him," said John Ryding, chief market economist at Bear Stearns. "I think that we will create 2.5 million, possibly more, jobs over the balance of the year."
Ahmed is convinced that "the revision patterns of the early-1990s recovery cycle" will be repeated. A total of 1.4 million job gains were revised upward to 2.9 million in the first 21 months after the end of the last recession, just after Bush Sr. was voted out of office.
Another newly unemployed professional wrote, "I am a 48-year-old woman who lost my job. I was with the company for 18 years. My job went to China. My husband is still working but for how long? The company he works for is always threatening to go to India. It's as plain as the nose on our faces that we are becoming a third-world country."
A frustrated local spouse added, "A year and a half ago my husband was laid off after 21 years at a large company in the Valley. We have a stack of copies of the jobs he has applied for. Everyday he applies for jobs. Sometimes the response comes back, 'Sorry we have received too many applications.' He has reworked and reworked his resume. He writes the nice cover letter. He applies for jobs that pay half of what he made just to work, but he can't even get an interview."
What do they all have in common? They all likely worked for large companies. Large companies are constantly looking for ways to cut costs through attrition, layoffs, outsourcing. What else is new? I have a hard time feeling sorry for professionals that are being layed off. When it was blue collar manufacturing jobs that were behing outsourced "professionals" and management didn't give a shit. Now that their jobs are on the chopping block it's suddenly a friggin chrisis.
My advice? Work for a small company or start your own. If you good being such intimate contact with the principals will provide job security. You can forget a lot of benefits (lots of time off, matching 401K, dental and vision, Christmas parties), but your company will likely view you as an asset rather then a liability like big companies do.
Show 'em my motto!
Oh right ... those people - the kid who runs around setting up PC's, swapping out failed monitors - that "IT"?
OR is this the "New IT" -
another expense or service part of the business operation?
Yes, a service part if the operation - they don't actually produce anything, but turn out to be necessary when selling to the general public ...
Did ya get that GW? Here is one of those "isolationists" you were talking about in your recent speech.
Who do you think hes voting for in the fall???