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How close is the race for president? |
Posted on 09/22/2004 11:03:18 AM PDT by GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY
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How close is the race for president? |
W. Bush is at 47% and John Kerry is at 46% in the weighted national popular vote.
| Bush | Kerry | Nader | Other | DK | Sep | |
| US (weighted) |
47% | 46% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 7-21 |
| State: | ||||||
| Alabama | 54% | 40% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 13-16 |
| Alaska | 57% | 30% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 9-11 |
| Arizona | 49% | 43% | * | 1% | 6% | 11-14 |
| Arkansas | 48% | 45% | 2% | 0% | 5% | 15-17 |
| California | 41% | 52% | * | 1% | 6% | 11-13 |
| Colorado | 46% | 45% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 10-13 |
| Connecticut | 39% | 54% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 12-14 |
| Delaware | 41% | 50% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 13-15 |
| DC | 11% | 78% | 6% | 1% | 4% | 11-13 |
| Florida | 45% | 46% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 17-20 |
| Georgia | 53% | 42% | * | 1% | 4% | 11-13 |
| Hawaii | 41% | 51% | 4% | 0% | 4% | 7-11 |
| Idaho | 59% | 30% | 3% | 1% | 7% | 8-10 |
| Illinois | 43% | 49% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 13-16 |
| Indiana | 54% | 39% | * | 1% | 6% | 16-20 |
| Iowa | 48% | 46% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 12-14 |
| Kansas | 57% | 35% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 15-18 |
| Kentucky | 57% | 39% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 8-12 |
| Louisiana | 50% | 42% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 17-21 |
| Maine | 44% | 48% | 4% | 0% | 5% | 8-10 |
| Maryland | 43% | 52% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 7-9 |
| Massachusetts | 27% | 64% | * | 1% | 7% | 10-13 |
| Michigan | 40% | 48% | 1% | 1% | 9% | 17-21 |
| Minnesota | 45% | 47% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 10-12 |
| Mississippi | 51% | 42% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 14-17 |
| Missouri | 50% | 44% | * | 1% | 5% | 16-19 |
| Montana | 60% | 32% | 3% | 0% | 5% | 7-9 |
| Nebraska | 61% | 30% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 9-12 |
| Nevada | 47% | 45% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 12-14 |
| New Hampshire | 47% | 45% | 1% | 1% | 7% | 15-17 |
| New Jersey | 42% | 50% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 13-16 |
| New Mexico | 44% | 49% | 1% | 0% | 6% | 14-16 |
| New York | 40% | 52% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 14-16 |
| North Carolina | 49% | 44% | * | 1% | 6% | 13-16 |
| North Dakota | 62% | 33% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 7-10 |
| Ohio | 48% | 46% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 17-20 |
| Oklahoma | 55% | 38% | * | 1% | 6% | 15-20 |
| Oregon | 45% | 47% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 10-13 |
| Pennsylvania | 46% | 47% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 15-19 |
| Rhode Island | 30% | 58% | 4% | 1% | 6% | 11-13 |
| South Carolina | 52% | 40% | 1% | 1% | 7% | 14-16 |
| South Dakota | 58% | 39% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 8-12 |
| Tennessee | 50% | 43% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 16-18 |
| Texas | 58% | 36% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 16-20 |
| Utah | 64% | 27% | 4% | 1% | 5% | 10-13 |
| Vermont | 40% | 50% | 4% | 0% | 7% | 9-12 |
| Virginia | 49% | 43% | * | 1% | 7% | 12-14 |
| Washington | 44% | 51% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 9-13 |
| West Virginia | 46% | 46% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 14-16 |
| Wisconsin | 46% | 46% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 12-15 |
| Wyoming | 65% | 29% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 9-11 |
| 600 completed telephone interviews among likely voters in each state and DC on dates in September (Sep). MOE ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time. Row totals may not equal 100% due to rounding. |
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Does ARG weight their state polling results? I thought they didn't... only their national result. Maybe I'm wrong.
Actually, Florida is not necessary if Bush manages to take New Mexico, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Even with New Hampshire, Florida is not enough for Kerry to win. Tally becomes 272-266 for Bush. Assumes all else stays the same as 2000.
My most optimistic is 347-191 Bush (Bush keeps his 2000 states but adds, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, New Mexico, New Jersey, and one of Maine's votes.)
My more realistic/pessimistic is 289-249 (Bush loses New Hampshire but picks up New Mexico and Wisconsin.)
My whacky "what if?" scenario has Bush picking up New Mexico, one of Maine's votes, New Jersey in a shocker, Iowa and Wisconsin but losing Ohio *and* Florida to Kerry, which leads to a 269-269 tie which Bush wins in the House.
Right now, Zogby, Rasmussen, and ARG are the Dem's favorite pollsters while they hate Mason-Dixon, Gallup, and SUSA. Gee, go figure. The one thing the first group has in common is weighting the polls identical to 2000 exit polling, which of course was not free of controversy in and of itself. Thus, when the returns for 2004 do not match those from 2000, those polls will be off. It is inevitable because the turnout numbers of D's and R's favored D's moreso than recent past and it is hard to see how they will improve on their great 2000 showing especially in the black community, which they will almost certainly do worse. Therefore, Zogby Rasmussen and ARG are going to be wrong...again (and I include Zogby in there because the only thing he got close in 2000 was the national numbers, his state numbers sucked as Sen Lazio will tell you).
They may be a joke but the poll that shows the largest kerry lead will get the most publicity from the MSM on friday and thus all weekend.
NARA: Federal Register: US Electoral College
http://www.archives.gov/federal_register/electoral_college/faq.html
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